Podcast Summary
The Importance of Expertise and the Dangers of Dismissing It: Disregarding established knowledge and authority can lead to disastrous consequences, particularly in areas like medicine and foreign policy.
Key takeaway from this conversation between Sam Harris and Tom Nichols on the Making Sense podcast is the importance of expertise and the dangers of dismissing it. Tom Nichols, a professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College and an adjunct professor at the Harvard Extension School, discusses his book "The Death of Expertise," which explores the growing trend of disregarding established knowledge and authority. He argues that this trend, fueled by the Dunning-Kruger effect and the ease of access to information, can lead to disastrous consequences, particularly in areas like medicine and foreign policy. The conversation touches on the repudiation of expertise in politics, conspiracy thinking, and the role of experts in government. Despite writing the book before the 2016 election, the topics discussed are particularly relevant to the current political climate, with Trump serving as a prime example of the dangers of ignoring expertise. Tom Nichols' background as an academic, a person who has served in government, and a former Jeopardy champion lends credibility to his insights on these issues.
People with limited knowledge overestimate their abilities: The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people underestimate their weaknesses and overestimate their strengths in unfamiliar areas.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a psychological phenomenon where people with limited knowledge or competence in a particular area overestimate their abilities. This effect, named after the social psychologists who discovered it, has become a popular term but is often misused. People who are less competent in a field have a harder time recognizing their deficiencies and evaluating their performance objectively. The effect is more pronounced when the task involves complex knowledge or skills. It's important to remember that the Dunning-Kruger effect is not a synonym for stupidity but rather a specific cognitive bias. Understanding this effect can help us recognize when we or others might be suffering from it and encourage a more humble and curious approach to learning and problem-solving.
Challenging authority: Necessary but limited: Experts challenge authority to expand knowledge, but it's crucial to trust and understand the rules and evidence within the field. Relying solely on authority can be limiting, and the conversation should be guided by evidence and scrutiny.
While challenging the expertise of others can be valuable, it's important to remember that the growth of knowledge relies on both trusting and distrusting authority. Becoming an expert in a field reveals its complexities and challenges received opinions, but this process is a continuous one where new generations of experts build upon the knowledge of their predecessors. However, it's crucial that these challenges come from other experts who understand the rules and evidence within their field. For instance, doctors challenging medical consensus is a result of peer review and testing, not from random claims. Additionally, with the vast amount of knowledge available, it's impossible for individuals to know everything. Thus, we all rely on authority to some extent. However, the algorithm of knowledge acquisition encourages us to distrust authority when necessary and expand our knowledge further. It's essential to recognize that relying on authority is necessary but also potentially limiting, and that the conversation should be guided by evidence and scrutiny rather than credentials alone.
Balancing Skepticism and Authority in Academic Research: Maintain a healthy balance between skepticism and authority in academic research to progress knowledge. Even renowned scholars can make errors, so challenge and scrutinize findings, and focus on better science rather than appeals to ignorance or conspiracy theories.
The reliance on authority alone in the field of academic research, particularly in the face of potential mistakes or disagreements, can hinder the progress of knowledge. This is an issue of skepticism versus authority, and it's crucial to maintain a healthy balance between the two. As my colleague's story illustrates, even renowned scholars can make errors, and it's essential to challenge and scrutinize findings, no matter the source. The answer to bad science or failed research is not an appeal to ignorance or conspiracy theories, but rather more science and better science. The daily successes of scholarly interaction, peer review, and expert knowledge far outweigh the failures. It's essential to recognize the importance of these daily achievements and how they impact our lives in countless ways.
Maintaining Trust in Expertise: While living in an uncertain world, it's crucial to trust professionals' knowledge and expertise, engage in open dialogue, ask questions, and listen to their responses to navigate complexities effectively.
While we may live in an era of uncertainty and distrust towards experts, it's essential to maintain a basic level of trust in their knowledge and expertise. Just because we don't fully understand the mechanisms behind certain practices or treatments doesn't mean we should abandon them entirely. Instead, we should approach new information with a healthy dose of skepticism, but also an open mind. Trusting professionals, whether they're doctors, pilots, or teachers, allows us to navigate the complexities of life more effectively. The narcissistic and cynical attitude towards expertise can lead to dangerous consequences, such as self-diagnosis or ignoring proven treatments. Instead, we should engage in open and respectful dialogue with experts, ask questions, and listen to their responses. By doing so, we can build stronger relationships based on trust and mutual respect.
The public's role in policy failures: Experts respond to public demands, and while some policies fail, not all are solely due to expertise. Public input and intuitions for probability and risk also play a role.
It's essential to consider the role of public demand in policy failures. Experts are not just proposers of solutions but respond to the problems that the public wants addressed. While it's easy to criticize experts for their mistakes, many policies that went wrong were initially popular with the public. For instance, the wars in Iraq and Vietnam, the housing crisis, and even the election of Donald Trump were all issues that the public wanted experts to tackle. It's crucial to remember that not all things that don't go wrong are solely due to expertise. For example, every successful airplane flight is a triumph of engineering, diplomacy, and public policy. Moreover, intuitions for probability and risk are not easily grasped by everyone. In the case of the 2016 US Presidential election, the polls showed that Hillary Clinton had a 2 in 3 chance of winning, but a 28% chance means that every third time the election is run, Donald Trump would win. Therefore, it's important to acknowledge the public's role in policy failures and appreciate the successes that result from expertise.
The Overwhelming Amount of Healthcare Information Online Can Lead to Confusion and Poor Decisions: Trust healthcare professionals for accurate information and advice, as medical research articles are not meant for the general public and can be confusing and potentially harmful if misunderstood.
While the democratization of information through the internet can be beneficial, it can also lead to confusion and anxiety, particularly in the context of healthcare. People, even those with a scientific background, may feel overwhelmed by medical information and make poor decisions as a result. Trusting the expertise of healthcare professionals and seeking their advice is crucial. Medical research articles are not written for the general public and can do more harm than good if misunderstood. Personal experiences shared by the speaker, such as his own emergency appendectomy, illustrate the importance of relying on medical professionals during times of health concerns.
Recognizing the value of expertise and experience: Experience and expertise matter in complex fields, and it's essential to recognize their value. Not everything can be learned through reading or quick discussions with experts. Humility and acknowledging limitations are key to understanding complex information.
When it comes to complex information, especially in fields like medicine, it's essential to understand that experience and expertise matter. The speaker shared an experience of explaining a medical procedure to his father using simple probability terms, which helped him make an informed decision. However, the availability of vast amounts of information online can sometimes create a false sense of understanding and equality to that of experienced professionals. The doctor's expertise and experience make them more likely to be right than an average person, and it's crucial to recognize this. The speaker also highlighted the importance of humility and acknowledging that not everything can be learned through reading or quick discussions with experts. The comparison to exercise emphasizes that expertise is not something that can be easily transferred or copied, and it takes time, effort, and experience to truly master a field. Ultimately, it's important to approach complex information with a critical and humble mindset, recognizing the value of expertise and experience.
The prioritization of charisma over competence in politics: Politics prioritizes relatability and authenticity over expertise and qualifications, but this can lead to detrimental consequences. Leaders should focus on merit and qualifications for their cabinet.
Politics has shifted towards valuing relatability and authenticity over expertise and qualifications. This trend can be traced back to the 1990s, with the rise of politicians like Bill Clinton who emphasized empathy and being "just like the people." However, this prioritization of charisma over competence can lead to detrimental consequences, as seen in the case of Sarah Palin's sudden rise as a political figure despite her lack of qualifications. The flogging of ignorant populism by those who are smart enough to know better has only exacerbated this issue. In contrast, it's important for political leaders to have a cabinet full of competent, intelligent, and capable individuals who can effectively govern. The focus should be on merit and qualifications, rather than relatability or likability.
The Dangerous Oversimplification of Complex Issues: Trump's presidency showcases a unique combination of incompetence, self-regard, and a large following, leading to a dangerous oversimplification of complex issues and a shift of blame away from individuals.
The current political climate involves a cynical attack on expertise, driven by individuals who possess significant knowledge and education yet use it for political gain. This trend, which is different from historical populist movements, presents a dangerous oversimplification of complex issues and shifts blame away from individuals. With Trump's presidency, we have a unique combination of incompetence, self-regard, and a large following that revels in these traits, creating a "Dunning Kruger presidency" where the president's departures from normalcy are celebrated by his supporters. This situation is reminiscent of American Idol auditions featuring individuals who lack the ability to perform yet believe they are exceptional. The election of Trump, who could not sing the presidential note yet received applause from 60 million people, highlights the astonishing state of our political landscape. It's crucial to separate Trump from his enablers, as some may view his presidency as a political strategy, while others believe he is genuinely clueless. Regardless, the consequences are concerning.
The Age of Political Polarization and Social Resentment: Many people find comfort in conspiracy theories and distrust experts and elites, fueling political polarization and disregard for facts.
We are living in an age of political polarization and social resentment, fueled by the feeling of being left behind in the face of rapid societal change. Many people, even those who are economically stable, find comfort in conspiracy theories and the idea that experts and elites are conspiring against them. This resentment has been exploited by politicians like Donald Trump, who construct their own reality and appeal to the anger and frustration of their supporters. Senator Burr's observation that the president constructs his own reality is terrifying, but even more concerning is the large number of people who applaud and support this behavior. The politics of resentment has led to a revival of conspiracy theories and a dangerous disregard for facts and expertise. It's important to recognize that this phenomenon is not limited to those who are economically disadvantaged, but rather affects a wide range of people who feel bewildered and angry in the face of societal change.
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