14-Iraq, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the Cheater’s Dilemma

Guests:

Sarah Bidgood is Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

Usha Sahay is Senior Editor at POLITICO Magazine, where she focuses on foreign affairs and global issues. She is also the host of “A Most Terrible Weapon,” a podcast produced by War on the Rocks about the dawn of the nuclear age. Previously, she was Managing Editor of War on the Rocks.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Samuel Meyer, Sarah Bidgood, and William C. Potter, “Death Dust: The Little-Known Story of U.S. and Soviet Pursuit of Radiological Weapons,” International Security, Vol. 45, No. 2 (Fall 2020), pp. 51– 94.

Related Readings:

• Alex Wellerstein, “Death Dust, 1941,” Restricted Data: The Nuclear Secrecy Blog, March 7, 2014.
   
• Usha Sahay, “A Most Terrible Weapon,” War on the Rocks, 2020.
   
• Sarah Bidgood, Sam Meyer, and William Potter, “It’s Time to Prohibit Radiological Weapons,” European Leadership Network, February 1, 2021.
   
• Kyle Mizokami, “Russia Is Still Testing Its Terrifying Apocalypse Torpedo,” Popular Mechanics, April 14, 2021.

Originally released on June 22, 2021.

Guests:

Austin Long is Vice Deputy Director for Strategic Stability in the Joint Staff J5 at the U.S. Department of Defense.

Ernest J. Herold is Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies—Americas and a retired Colonel in the U.S. Army. He was previously the Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment at NATO and Business Development Executive for NATO, U.S. European Command, and U.S. Africa Command at IBM.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Brendan Rittenhouse Greene and Austin Long, “Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3 (Winter 2019/20), pp. 48–83.

Related Readings:

• Robert C. Toth, “Change in Soviets’ Sub Tactics Tied to Spy Case: Material Reportedly Available to Walkers May Have Tipped Kremlin to Vessels’ Vulnerability,” Los Angeles Times, June 17, 1985.

• Erica D. Borghard, “Chinese Hackers are Stealing U.S. Defense Secrets: Here is How to Stop Them,” Net Politics blog, Council on Foreign Relations, March 11, 2019.
   
• Daniel Gonzales et al., “Unclassified and Secure: A Defense Industrial Base Cyber Protection Program for Unclassified Defense Networks” (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2020).

Originally released on June 22, 2021.

Guests:

Christopher Lawrence is Assistant Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is also editor-at-large at the Diplomat and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Christopher Lawrence, “Normalization by Other Means—Technological Infrastructure and Political Commitment in the North Korean Nuclear Crisis,” International Security, Vol. 45, No. 1 (Summer 2020), pp. 9–50.

Related Readings:

• “North Korean Nuclear Negotiations: 1985–2019,” Council on Foreign Relations.
• Kelsey Davenport, “The U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, July 2018.
• Kim Tong-Hyung, “Moon Urges Biden To Learn from Trump’s N. Korea Diplomacy,” Associated Press, January 18, 2021.
• Patricia M. Kim, “North Korea Conducted More Missile Tests. What Happens Next?” Monkey Cage blog, Washington Post, March 27, 2021.
• Christopher Lawrence, “‘Transactional’ Nuclear Diplomacy May Provide a Path toward ‘Grand Bargains’ with Iran and North Korea,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 29, 2021.
• Betsy Klein, “Biden Administration Completes North Korea Review Process, Will Pursue ‘Calibrated’ Diplomacy,” CNN, April 30, 2021.
• Ankit Panda, “What Biden Should Know about North Korea’s New Nuclear Plans,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 15, 2021.

Originally released on May 6, 2021.

Guests:

Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, where she also directs the Oslo Nuclear Project and the Peace and Conflict Studies Master’s Program.

Kori Schake is Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Dr. Schake has previously worked at the U.S. State Department, U.S. Department of Defense, and the National Security Council at the White House.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, “Cheater's Dilemma: Iraq, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the Path to War,” International Security, Vol. 45, No. 1 (Summer 2020), pp. 51–89.

Related Readings:

• Frank Ronald Cleminson, “What Happened to Saddam’s Weapons of Mass Destruction?” Arms Control Today, Volume 33, September 2003.
• Duyeon Kim, “How To Tell if North Korea Is Serious about Denuclearization,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 29, 2018.
• Gregg Zoroya, “Whatever Happened to Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction?” USA Today, February 14, 2019.
• Eric Brewer, “How to Deal with the Nuclear Skeletons in Iran’s Closet,” War on the Rocks, December 21, 2020.
• Amanda Macias, “Biden Says Iran Must Return to Negotiating Table before U.S. Lifts Sanctions,” CNBC, February 7, 2021.

Originally released on March 16, 2021.

Guests:

Iain D. Henry is a Lecturer in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. 

Abraham M. Denmark is the Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and an Adjunct Associate Professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Denmark previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia from 2015 to 2017.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Iain D. Henry, “What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 45–83.

Related Readings:

• Mark Bell, Joshua Kertzer, Björn Jerdén, Hemal Shah, Sharon Stirling, “Assessing the U.S. Commitment to Allies in Asia and Beyond,” German Marshall Fund of the United States, March 23, 2018.
• Michael Schuman, “Keep an Eye on Taiwan,” The Atlantic, October 10, 2020.
• Bonnie Glaser, Michael Green, Richard Bush, “Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 21, 2020.
• Patrick Porter and Joshua Shifrinson, “Why We Can’t Be Friends with Our Allies,” Politico, October 22, 2020.
• James Crabtree, “Biden Has a Serious Credibility Problem in Asia,” Foreign Policy, September 10, 2020.
• Sheila Smith, “America’s Frightening Choice,” East Asia Forum, November 3, 2020.

Originally released on December 10, 2020.

Guests:

Arman Grigoryan is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at Lehigh University.

Sarah Sewall is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center and Executive Vice President for Policy at In-Q-Tel. She previously served as the Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights from 2014 to 2017.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Arman Grigoryan, “Selective Wilsonianism: Material Interests and the West’s Support for Democracy,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 150–200.

Related Readings:

Sabrina Tavernise, “Protesters and Police Clash as Armenia Unrest Grows,” New York Times, March 2, 2008.

“How To Be Good Neighbours,” The Economist, March 1, 2014.

John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014. 

Aaron David Miller, “Values vs. Interests: How Should America Deal with Bad Guys?,” The National Interest, May 2, 2017.

“Trump’s Strange Silence on Belarus,” Washington Post, August 21, 2020.

Guests:

Risa Brooks is the Allis Chalmers Associate Professor of Political Science at Marquette University and a non-resident Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Joseph L. Votel is a retired four-star general in the U.S. Army and previously served as Commander of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command. Votel is currently a non-resident Senior Fellow here at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and he is also the President and CEO of Business Executives for National Security.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Risa Brooks, “Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 7–44.

Related Readings:

Celeste Ward Gventer, Jessica D. Blankshain, Raphael S. Cohen, Lindsay P. Cohn, Paul Eaton, Lauren Fish, “Policy Roundtable: Civil-Military Relations Now and Tomorrow,” Texas National Security Review, March 27, 2018.

Risa Brooks, “What Can Military and Civilian Leaders Do to Prevent the Military’s Politicization,” War on the Rocks, April 27, 2020.

Joseph Votel, “An Apolitical Military Is Essential to Maintaining Balance among American Institutions,” Military Times, June 8, 2020.

Jim Golby, “America’s Politicized Military Is a Recipe for Disaster,” Foreign Policy, June 18, 2020.

Alice Hunt Friend, “A Military Litmus Test? Evaluating the Argument that Civilian Defense Leaders Need Military Experience,” Just Security, August 19, 2020.

Guests:

Galen Jackson is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Williams College.

Aaron David Miller is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Between 1978 and 2003, Miller served at the State Department as an historian, analyst, negotiator, and advisor to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state, where he helped formulate U.S. policy on the Middle East and the Arab-Israel peace process.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Galen Jackson, “Who Killed Détente? The Superpowers and the Cold War in the Middle East, 1969–1977,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3 (Winter 2019/20), pp. 129–162.

Additional Related Readings:

• Charles Glass, “Syrian Archives Add New Details to Henry Kissinger’s Disastrous Middle East Record,” Intercept, June 18, 2017.
• Missy Ryan, “After ISIS, U.S. Military Confronts Challenge from Russia, China in Middle East,” Washington Post, February 27, 2018.
• Olga Oliker, “Russia Has Been Playing a Canny Game in the Middle East, but Can It Continue?” Guardian, October 23, 2019.
• Galen Jackson, “The United States, the 1967 Lines, and the Future of the Arab-Israeli Conflict,” War on the Rocks, May 26, 2020.
• Aaron David Miller, “Netanyahu Has (Almost) Nothing to Fear from a President Biden,” Haaretz, July 20, 2020.

Guests

Andrew Payne is the Hedley Bull Research Fellow in International Relations at the University of Oxford.

Emma Sky is the director of the Yale World Fellows Program and a Senior Fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. Sky served as the Governate Coordinator of Kirkuk for the Coalition Provisional Authority from 2003 to 2004, as well as an advisor to the Commanding General of U.S. forces in Iraq from 2007 to 2010.

International Security Article

This podcast is based on Andrew Payne, “Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints during the Iraq War,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3 (Winter 2019/2020), pp. 163–203.

Additional Related Readings:

David D. Kirkpatrick and Adam Nagourney, “In an Election Year, a Shift in Public Opinion on the War,” New York Times, March 27, 2006.

Peyton M. Craighill, “Public Opinion Is Settled as Iraq War Concludes,” Washington Post, November 6, 2011.

Emma Sky, “The Death of the U.S.-Iraqi Relationship,” Foreign Affairs, January 3, 2020.

Lauren Gambino, “Iran Crisis Pushes Foreign Policy to the Fore in Democratic Primary,” Guardian, January 9, 2020.

Andrew Payne, “Trump Just De-escalated in the Middle East. Here’s Why We Shouldn’t Be Surprised,” Washington Post, January 11, 2020.

Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Julian E. Barnes, “Trump Wants Troops in Afghanistan Home by Election Day. The Pentagon Is Drawing Up Plans,” New York Times, May 26, 2020.

Guests:

Fiona Cunningham is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University.

Admiral Cecil Haney (ret.) previously served as the Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, as well as Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Admiral Haney is currently on the Center for a New American Security Board of Directors.

International Security Article:

This podcast is based on Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel, “Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Fall 2019), pp. 61-109.

Additional Related Readings:

Caitlin Talmadge, The US-China Nuclear Relationship: Why Competition Is Likely to Intensify (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2019).

“Warheads Up: China’s Nuclear Arsenal Was Strikingly Modest, But That Is Changing,” Economist, November 21, 2019.

Eric Heginbotham et al., China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Main Drivers and Issues for the United States (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2017).

M. Taylor Fravel, "China's 'World-Class Military' Ambitions: Origins and Implications," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 43, Issue 1 (2020), pp. 85-99.