Podcast Summary
Technology's Rapid Advancement and Its Impact on Society: In the next two decades, technology, particularly crypto and AI, will fundamentally restructure society, leading to significant changes. Embrace the future and prepare for the unique challenges it brings.
Technology, specifically crypto and AI, is rapidly advancing and will fundamentally restructure society, potentially leaving nation-states struggling to keep up. Sam Hammond, an economist and writer, predicts that this new paradigm will lead to significant changes in the next two decades, including the role of the US and the response of countries embracing Internet technologies. The episode explores the concept of "effective accelerationism," a techno-optimistic movement that welcomes the future and accelerates technical progress. It's important for individuals to understand these changes and be prepared for the future, as the world will become increasingly different in specific and unique ways. The episode also touches on the challenges crypto faces in the US and the changing attitude towards technology in America. Sponsors Kraken and MetaMask Portfolio support the exploration of these concepts.
Exploring Arbitrum's Scaling Solutions and Crypto's Impact on Society: Arbitrum provides a scalable and secure ecosystem for dApps, NFTs, and web 3 gaming. Crypto, as a disruptive technology, brings opportunities and challenges, including resistance from nation states.
The Ethereum scaling solution, Arbitrum, offers a robust ecosystem for decentralized applications, NFTs, and web 3 gaming. With its secure and scalable technology, Arbitrum Orbit enables individuals and enterprises to build their own customizable chains. Crypto, as discussed with economist Sam Hammond, is seen as a powerful tool for advancing freedom and social change, much like the invention of the stirrup led to feudalism. However, the rise of crypto also brings resistance from nation states, as its potential to disrupt traditional systems poses a threat to their control. Arbitrum, along with other technological advancements, is pushing the boundaries of what's possible, leading to both opportunities and challenges. To explore these topics further, visit Arbitrum.io and join the growing Ethereum community.
Technology outpacing regulation creates friction: Historically, new technologies face regulatory challenges but eventually become widespread despite initial opposition
The rapid advancement of technologies like AI and crypto is outpacing the ability of regulatory bodies, such as those led by figures like Gary Gensler, to keep up. This gap between technology and regulation creates a friction that can lead to attempts by incumbent institutions to slow down or even ban these new technologies. The historical precedent of this phenomenon can be seen with the printing press, which faced regulatory challenges before eventually becoming widespread. The values of freedom and technology, which are often associated with societies like America, can create a jarring contrast when these same societies crack down on new technologies. However, it's important to remember that this is not necessarily due to an inherent opposition to these technologies, but rather a struggle to adapt to their exponential pace of change.
The printing revolution and its impact on society: The historical development of printing technology in England led to the rise of minority religious groups and eventually the American Republic, but today's digital age presents unique challenges requiring new institutions to adapt and evolve
The historical development of printing technology in England and its impact on society provides valuable insights into the current challenges posed by new technologies like crypto and AI. During the printing revolution, the licensing board's control over publications broke down, leading to the rise of minority religious groups and eventually the American Republic, which was founded with a strong emphasis on freedom of speech. Today, we are witnessing a similar tension between outdated institutions and new technologies, with governments struggling to adapt and create institutions that are native to the digital age. The US, as one of the first societies built on post-printing press protocols, has a unique history in this regard. However, unlike the printing press, we now have technologies like the Internet that don't have to adhere to business hours or traditional systems. The growing chasm between the public and private sectors in terms of technology can lead to inefficiencies and even system failures. The US has historically promoted technologies that spread freedom and democratization, but the response to emerging technologies like crypto and AI has been less favorable. This highlights the need for institutions that can evolve with technology and the potential for new institutions to be founded to address the unique challenges of the digital age.
Power dynamics and technology: The perception of technology, especially crypto and AI, by the establishment has shifted due to their potential to disrupt power structures. The industry is divided between tech optimists and regulators, requiring a balance for proper navigation.
The perception of technology, particularly crypto and AI, by the establishment has shifted due to their potential to disrupt power structures and challenge the status quo. While the Internet was initially promoted for its openness and connectivity, it has been met with skepticism and regulation when it poses a threat to those in power. The same dynamic is now playing out with crypto and AI, where the elites embrace the technology when it benefits them but express concern when it challenges their power. The tech industry itself is divided between tech optimists, like Marc Andreessen, who argue that technology is essential for progress, and those who view it as a potential danger that requires careful regulation. Finding a balance between these two extremes is crucial for navigating the complex relationship between technology and society.
Navigating the complexities of technology: Technology brings benefits and risks, requiring careful consideration of values and cost structures to preserve what we value, such as open society, freedom, and privacy. Brace for its disruptive impact with a thoughtful and nuanced approach.
Technology, particularly AI, is a double-edged sword with both benefits and risks. It can lead to positive changes like the Arab Spring, but also negative consequences like the digital surveillance state in China. Technology is not neutral and requires careful consideration of values and cost structures to preserve what we value, such as an open society, freedom, and privacy. However, voluntary restraint and precise regulation are challenging in the competitive arms race of technology development. Instead, we should focus on bracing for the impact of technology, recognizing that it will be disruptive in both good and bad ways. A good example of this is Estonia, which, as an Internet native country, built a sophisticated e-government on a distributed data exchange layer, enabling automation and preserving data in case of emergencies. Ultimately, we need to navigate the complexities of technology with a thoughtful and nuanced approach.
Estonia's Modern Government: A Platform for Private Actors: Estonia transformed its government into a tech-driven platform, reducing employment footprint and improving cybersecurity, but addressing tech debt and social structures may be necessary before full progress.
Estonia serves as an example of a modern government that leverages technology for security, efficiency, and innovation. While the US and other governments grapple with tech debt and outdated systems, Estonia has transformed its government into a "platform" for private actors, resulting in reduced employment footprint and improved cybersecurity. However, the path to progress for governments may involve addressing tech debt and rebuilding social structures before moving forward. The innovator's dilemma applies to governments, as they are unable to fail, making it crucial to maintain a dynamic setting for change. Despite being seemingly uncontested, governments are part of a larger global competition for talent, populations, and economics. Ultimately, the ability to adapt and innovate within government structures will be essential for staying competitive in the modern world.
The Efficiency of In-House vs. Outsourced Tasks in Nations: Small, open countries prioritize good governance due to competition for foreign investment and talent, while large, closed countries face challenges adapting to global dynamics. The Internet blurs boundaries, requiring a balance between technology, government as a service, and individual freedoms in a post-Internet operating system.
The efficiency of in-house tasks versus outsourced tasks determines the boundaries of firms and nation-states. This concept, known as transaction costs, includes costs of bargaining, information searching, and monitoring. Countries function similarly to corporations and cooperatives, providing solutions for market failures like insurance. Small, open countries tend to have better governance due to competition for foreign investment and talent. However, large, relatively closed countries can face challenges adapting to changing global dynamics. The Internet is blurring geographical boundaries, raising questions about the appropriate scale and competition for nations. A post-Internet operating system for a country might prioritize technology, government as a service, and a balance between freedom and control. This could include protocolizing digital rights, such as encryption and crypto usage. The tension between freedom and control is a challenge for nation-states in the post-Internet era. Hobbes' Leviathan concept, written during the English Civil War, highlights the need for balance between individual liberties and the role of the state in maintaining order.
The role of the state in balancing technology and governance: In a world where technology empowers individuals but also poses new challenges, the state may be the only counterbalance to prevent potential losses of privacy and freedom. Finding a balance between the benefits and risks of technology requires new institutional arrangements that preserve civil liberties and privacy.
The development of individual capabilities, while empowering, can lead to negative externalities and the need for a stronger central authority. This concept, rooted in the classical liberal tradition, arose from a strong state capable of raising revenues, fortifying borders, and imposing an impersonal rule of law. However, the increasing capabilities of technologies like AI pose new challenges. These technologies can be dangerous and centralizing, concentrating power and potentially leading to a loss of privacy and freedom. The state, with the right political leadership, may be the only counterbalance. As we navigate this post-AI, post-Internet world, it's crucial to find a balance between the benefits and risks of technology and establish new institutional arrangements that preserve civil liberties and privacy. The idea of nation-states as a tech stack or operating system can help us understand this complex relationship between technology, power, and governance.
The network state: A complex and nuanced idea: The network state proposes replacing traditional governments in areas like property rights and banking with decentralized technologies, but faces challenges due to the need for physical security and agglomeration economies, and may involve a combination of interlocking network protocols and physical co-location for certain public goods.
The idea of a "network state" proposed by Balaji and others in the crypto community, which aims to replace or diminish the role of traditional governments in areas like property rights and banking using decentralized technologies, holds some potential but also faces significant challenges. While the concept aligns with historical philosophies of changing the world and skipping ahead in history, it may not be able to fully deterritorialize due to the ongoing need for physical security and agglomeration economies. The future may involve a combination of interlocking network protocols and physical co-location for certain public goods, like physical security. Ultimately, the network state idea is a complex and nuanced one, with elements of both pragmatism and idealism.
The Future of Society: AI, Crypto, and Collective Action: AI and crypto integration could lead to new forms of collective action and institutional arrangements, but challenges from traditional nation states and technology immaturity must be addressed.
The integration of AI and crypto technologies has the potential to unlock new forms of collective action and institutional arrangements, leading to a more optimistic future. However, the path to getting there may involve overcoming resistance from traditional nation states and dealing with the challenges and potential traumas that come with the immaturity of these technologies. The speaker believes that despite these challenges, the vision of a society organized inside the cloud, enabled by property rights on a blockchain and powered by AI, is worth pursuing. However, it's important to recognize that the rapid advancement of AI could lead to unexpected changes and challenges. The speaker uses the example of Uber as an example of how technology can induce a regime change, and encourages a forward-thinking approach to embracing these transformative technologies.
The Techno-Capital Machine: Transformative Power of Technology and Capitalism: Technology and capitalism create a self-fulfilling dynamic, leading to both positive and negative outcomes. Embrace benefits, address risks, and engage in community governance.
The discussion highlights the transformative power of technology and the self-fulfilling dynamic of capitalism, which once initiated, is difficult to contain. This was exemplified through the evolution of ride-hailing services like Uber, which eliminated the need for haggling with taxi drivers through reputation rankings and search and matching platforms. This trend, known as the techno-capital machine, can lead to both positive and negative outcomes. In the crypto world, the introduction of Celo layer 2 and projects like GMX and USDV demonstrate the potential for decentralized technologies to bring huge advantages and real-world adoption. However, it's crucial to be aware of the potential risks and dangers, such as those posed by AI. In response, governments, including the US, are taking action through executive orders, like the one on AI, which aims to ensure safety and trustworthiness. It's essential to strike a balance between embracing the benefits of technology and addressing potential risks, and actively engaging in community governance and discussions is key.
Regulating AI with a focus on safety and security: The U.S. executive order on AI aims to ensure safety and security through infrastructure reporting, safety testing, and preventing bias in housing and urban development.
The recent U.S. executive order on AI is a significant step towards regulating the use and development of artificial intelligence, with a focus on safety and security. The order includes provisions for infrastructure providers to report and register foreign users, as well as requirements for safety testing and reporting for large-scale AI training. This is reminiscent of crypto regulations and AML/KYC procedures. The order also includes interagency reports and measures to prevent bias in areas like housing and urban development. While some may find these measures annoying or counterproductive, they reflect the administration's commitment to addressing core AI risks. The order is a more targeted approach compared to Europe's regulations, which have been criticized for being overly broad. The focus on safety and security is a positive sign, especially given the emerging capabilities of AI systems as they scale. The executive order also highlights the dual use nature of AI and the importance of securing compute infrastructure. Overall, the order is a significant development in the regulation of AI and reflects growing concerns about the potential risks and implications of this technology.
China's Cautious Approach to AI Deployment: China is implementing strict regulations to prevent unapproved use of large language models, while the US promotes democratization of AI with potential risks of overuse and creating a surveillance state.
China is taking a more cautious approach to the deployment of AI compared to the US, despite being competitive in AI research. The Chinese government is implementing strict regulations and security reviews to prevent large language models like ChatGPT from being used without approval. This is due to concerns over the potential for AI to be used for resistance against the government and the possibility of it spreading information that the regime would rather suppress. The US, on the other hand, is seen as having a more positive outlook towards the democratization of AI and its potential for technological freedom. However, there is a risk that the West could end up enslaving themselves with the overuse of technology, creating a bottom-up surveillance state. The speaker expresses a sense of uncertainty about AI, seeing it as a double-edged sword with the potential for both freedom and enslavement.
The ethical concerns of mass surveillance and predictive policing: The EU AI Act prohibits AI use in predictive policing due to privacy concerns, but the future could see a fragmented society with significant power and control in private institutions, requiring civil and privacy liberties in technology to prevent an unchecked, Orwellian future.
As technology advances, particularly AI, the potential for mass surveillance and predictive policing raises ethical concerns. The idea of constantly asking a model if anyone is committing a crime, even if vague, implies a powerful central entity with access to vast amounts of information. This could lead to a dystopian future where privacy is sacrificed for security, and predictive policing becomes a reality. However, the EU AI Act has taken a step towards preventing this by prohibiting the use of AI in predictive policing. Despite the potential benefits, there are valid concerns about the misuse of this technology and the need to balance security with privacy. The future could see a fragmented society with private institutions wielding significant power and control, leading to new forms of social regulation. It's crucial to engineer civil and privacy liberties into technology to ensure a constrained Leviathan and avoid an unchecked, Orwellian future.
The Impact of AI on Governance and Society: AI's decentralization could lead to new forms of governance and social structures, while automation of tasks may impact bureaucracies and professional managerial classes. Humans' prosocial behaviors may continue to evolve with AI's emergence.
As technology advances, there will be a decentralization of powerful computing capabilities from nation-states to private entities, leading to a shift in surveillance and rule-setting. Bureaucracies and professional managerial classes are particularly vulnerable to this change as many tasks can be automated, but this also opens up new possibilities for more efficient and adaptable forms of governance. The emergence of AI assistants could lead to a future where every human has their own personal assistant, and prosocial behaviors may continue to evolve, leading to new forms of trust and social structures. The potential impact of AI on governance and society is vast, and it's important to consider both the opportunities and challenges it presents. The discussion also touched upon the idea that humans have an inherent tendency towards prosocial behaviors, as seen in species like vampire bats, which may have contributed to the emergence of concepts like ledgers and debts and credits. Overall, the conversation highlighted the potential for AI to fundamentally change the way we live and work, and the importance of understanding and adapting to these changes.
Balancing AI's Historical Context and Future Implications: AI has the potential to restore forms of credible commitment and maintain order, but it also carries risks like mass censorship. Careful management is necessary to ensure democratization and balance, considering who is in control and how power is circumscribed.
As we navigate the future of AI, it's essential to remember the historical context of systems designed to keep individuals in check, such as double entry bookkeeping and the potential for AI to restore forms of credible commitment. However, this technology also carries risks, like mass censorship. The key is to manage this transition carefully, ensuring that AI is democratized and balanced, rather than leading to a top-down AI overlord. The use of AI for monitoring speech, like in the case of Call of Duty, can be seen as a positive step for maintaining order, but it's crucial to consider who is in control and how this power is circumscribed. The future may involve a balance between decentralized and centralized powers, with communities opting into various forms of AI surveillance. As we move forward, it's important to remember the potential benefits and risks of AI and work towards a future where this technology is used in a way that respects individual freedoms and promotes social order.
Predictions on the Impact of AI on Society by 2030s: By 2024-2027, AI will dominate enterprise, causing job losses and asset repricing, while synthetic content may lead to misinformation and a shift towards private communication. By mid 2030s, societal structures may struggle to adapt to these changes.
According to Sam's predictions in his AI and the Leviathan series on Substack, the democratization of AI capabilities could lead to significant changes in our society within the next few decades. By 2024 to 2027, the vast majority of content on the internet will be synthetic, and AI will become a dominant presence in enterprise. This could result in job losses and a "great repricing" of assets, where some stocks may plummet while others soar. Additionally, the rise of synthetic content could lead to a flood of misinformation, requiring a shift towards private communication channels. By the mid 2030s, the New Deal system put in place to address the issues of the industrial revolution may begin to crack under the pressure of these changes. It's important to note that while Sam's predictions are compelling, they contain a sci-fi element and the exact timing is uncertain.
Potential Disruptions from AGI by Late 2020s and 2030s: AGI's emergence could cause labor market dislocation, rise of AI-native corporations, need for parallel systems in law and medicine, struggle for institutions to keep up, potential tax revenue drops, and emergence of three types of states: police, failed, and tech-forward post-Internet.
The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by the late 2020s and 2030s could lead to significant disruptions across various sectors, including labor markets, institutions, and government services. This shift could result in massive labor market dislocation, the rise of AI-native corporations, and the need for parallel systems in areas like law and medicine. Institutions, such as courts and regulatory bodies, may struggle to keep up with the technological advancements, leading to potential failures or the emergence of private alternatives. The tax revenues of governments could drop due to income shifting to capital, potentially causing instability. The future could see the emergence of three types of states: police states, failed states, and tech-forward post-Internet states. The US might transition into a "soft landing failed state" with an archipelago of micro jurisdictions. This transition could begin around the late 2030s and 2040s. This prediction, much like a crypto guest's price prediction, comes with uncertainty but highlights the potential for significant change.
The Future of Government by 2040: Technology vs. Governance: By 2040, AI technology could lead to a post-human society, but governance lags behind, raising concerns about the consequences. Preserving the good and avoiding the bad requires finding a balance between technology and governance, considering second-order effects and middle ground scenarios.
The future of government by 2040 is expected to undergo a dramatic transformation due to the advancement of AI technology. This could potentially lead to a post-human society where humanity-scale computers could model every human mind and predict everyone's actions. The tension between technology and governance is becoming increasingly apparent, with technology advancing at a faster rate than governance can keep up. The potential consequences of this could be both amazing and dangerous, and it's crucial to find a way to preserve the good and avoid the bad. The conversation also touched on the correlation between technology and freedom, and how good governance can promote freedom. The episode highlighted the idea that governance lags technology, and the need to consider second-order effects and middle ground scenarios. Overall, the conversation provided a thought-provoking exploration of the future of technology and its impact on society.
Exploring philosophy, politics, governance, and AI risks with David and Ryan: Discussed philosophy, politics, governance, and AI risks with David from Bankless Nation and the Foundation For American Innovation. None of it was financial advice, and both crypto and AI come with inherent risks. Check out Bankless Nation, The Dynamist podcast, and We're All Gonna Die episode with Eliezer Yudkowsky for more.
Key takeaway from this conversation with David and Ryan is the exploration of various topics including philosophy, politics, governance, and the potential risks and challenges posed by artificial intelligence (AI). David shared insights from his work with the Bankless Nation, the Foundation For American Innovation, and his concerns about AI alignment and safety. While the discussion touched upon many important points, it's important to remember that none of it constituted financial advice, and both crypto and AI come with inherent risks. The journey ahead is uncertain, but the Bankless community is glad to have you along for the ride. To learn more, check out the links to the Bankless Nation, The Dynamist podcast, and the We're All Gonna Die episode with Eliezer Yudkowsky in the show notes.
