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    271. Is Biden really losing Hispanic and Black voters?

    enJune 20, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Immigration Politics, Democratic PartyBiden's immigration policies aim to appeal to both progressives and centrists within the Democratic Party, but critics argue they send mixed messages

      During this episode of The Rest Is Politics, Catty K and Anthony Scaramucci discussed the potential reasons for black and Hispanic voters warming up to Donald Trump, and the implications of Joe Biden's recent immigration policies for the Democratic Party. Biden's recent moves, such as protecting undocumented spouses of American citizens and shutting down the border to asylum seekers, aim to appeal to both progressives and centrists within the Democratic Party. However, some critics argue that these policies send mixed messages about the Biden campaign's stance on immigration. The hosts also touched upon the upcoming presidential debates and the preparations of the two candidates, with Biden currently prepping at Camp David. Overall, the conversation shed light on the complexities of immigration politics and the challenges faced by political candidates in navigating the diverse views within their parties.

    • Immigration policy and demographic shiftsBiden's immigration policy could resonate with younger, socially liberal Hispanics and some African Americans, who prioritize border control, while keeping the Democratic base engaged and reaching out to swing voters is crucial for success.

      The Biden campaign's recent move on immigration policy could be a game-changer for reaching out to key voter demographics, particularly Hispanics and African Americans. The speaker notes that some hard-right voters may not be swayed, but the narrative of welcoming and supporting immigrants could resonate with younger, American-born Hispanics and even some third and fourth-generation African Americans. These groups are increasingly socially liberal on certain issues but prioritize border control. The Biden campaign's message on immigration needs to be clear and nuanced to appeal to these voters, who are growing in number and influence. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of keeping the Democratic base engaged and voting, as well as reaching out to swing voters. The changing demographics of the US electorate require a more nuanced approach to campaigning, and understanding the diverse priorities within different ethnic groups is crucial for success.

    • Immigration and AssimilationHistorical discrimination against Italian-Americans parallels current challenges faced by Hispanic Americans, while the GOP's 'whitify' strategy may alienate Hispanic voters focusing on class and economic concerns

      The Italian-American experience in the United States during the early 1900s was marked by discrimination and difficulty in assimilating due to nativistic attitudes and legislation. This history is relevant today as younger generations of Hispanic Americans face similar challenges in defining their identity and political alignment. The Republican Party's current strategy to "whitify" the government may alienate growing numbers of Hispanic voters who are increasingly identifying based on class and economic concerns, rather than race. The dream for the Republican Party could be to have a black or brown Hispanic president as a way to appeal to this demographic and move beyond a nativist image. The changing political landscape underscores the importance of understanding the historical context of immigration and assimilation in the United States.

    • Presidential Debate ImpactThe upcoming presidential debate is seen as a defining moment for undecided voters, despite historical evidence suggesting debates don't typically impact election outcomes. Both campaigns are preparing rigorously.

      The upcoming presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is seen as a significant moment for both campaigns, despite historical evidence suggesting that debates don't typically have a major impact on election outcomes. Trump is reportedly undergoing rigorous debate prep, while Biden's team is focusing on rest and preparation. The Biden campaign believes this debate will be a defining moment for undecided voters to make their choice between the two candidates. Meanwhile, polling suggests that black voters, particularly black men, are drifting away from Trump, but the Democrats are confident they will return in November. Interestingly, Trump's potential choice of a vice presidential candidate, such as Marco Rubio, may not significantly impact his support among Hispanic voters due to their distinct cultural differences. Trump's past debate performances have been criticized, and his team is reportedly showing him footage to help him avoid repeating those mistakes.

    • Debate formatThe upcoming debate features a new format with each candidate given two minutes to answer questions and their microphones muted during opponent's response, potentially making it harder for Trump to interrupt and bully Biden, but may limit Biden's ability to respond in real-time and could favor scripted soundbites and policy points.

      The upcoming presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will feature a new format with each candidate given two minutes to answer questions and their microphones muted during their opponent's response. This format was pushed for by the Biden campaign, but there are concerns that it may not be the best strategy for them. During the 2020 debates, Trump's interrupting and bullying behavior rattled Biden and provided memorable moments that defined the candidates. With the new format, Trump's mic will be muted, potentially making it harder for him to display that behavior publicly. However, the Biden campaign may view this as an opportunity to focus on soundbites and policy points, as they have a significant advantage in advertising spend on social media platforms. It remains to be seen how effective this strategy will be and whether the format will live up to the expectations of both campaigns.

    • Presidential Debate PreparationBoth campaigns are preparing for personal attacks during the presidential debate, with a focus on facial expressions as the only visible aspect. The debates have lost their historical significance and substance, but efforts are being made to improve the format for serious discussion.

      The upcoming presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is expected to be a highly contested event, with both sides preparing for personal attacks and needling each other to reveal their most extreme versions. The Biden campaign is prepping for Donald Trump to go after Joe Biden's record, inflation, border issues, and even Hunter Biden. The Trump campaign, similarly, wants Biden to be the most extreme version of himself. One interesting aspect of the preparation is the focus on facial expressions, as the audience will only see one candidate at a time during the debate. The debate is seen as an opportunity for the country to see the other candidate as they truly are, rather than a hiring decision or a serious policy discussion. However, there is concern that the debates have lost their sense of history and substance, with past debates, such as the 1960 debate between Kennedy and Nixon, being more serious and focused on policy. The 2020 debate was criticized for lacking substance and serving the American public poorly. The current debate format aims to provide more opportunities for serious discussion, but it remains to be seen if this will be the case.

    • Presidential Debates' ImpactThe presidential debates significantly influence the race and candidates' preparations, with factors like health conditions, human experiences, and unexpected events playing a role.

      The presidential debates have a significant impact on the race and the candidates' preparations. The debates on June 27, 2020, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, are especially crucial. The history of presidential debates shows that human experiences, health conditions, and unexpected events can influence the outcome. For instance, John F. Kennedy's debate prep included tanning and injections, while Richard Nixon appeared pale and sweaty due to fever. In the 2008 debate between Barack Obama and John McCain, Obama was seen as the clear winner, pushing him to prepare harder for the next debate. If Trump is widely perceived as the winner in the upcoming debate, the Democratic side may experience anxiety and hand-wringing. Additionally, there are rumors and speculation about the candidates' health and substance use, which could further influence public perception. Ultimately, the debates serve as a crucial moment for the American public to evaluate the candidates and make an informed decision.

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