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    3/6/24: Nikki Haley Drops Out Refusing To Endorse Trump, Dem Revolt In Super Tuesday Uncommitted Vote, Victoria Nuland Resigns, Kyrsten Sinema Retires, Israel Threatens Lebanon War As Hezbollah Fires Rockets, And Red Sea Cables Destroyed As Houthi Attacks Continue

    enMarch 06, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Examples of Positive ImpactIndividuals and organizations can make a positive impact by offering value and persevering through challenges, as demonstrated by Purdue Global, Kroger, Breaking Points, and Nikki Haley.

      Both individuals and organizations can make a positive impact and offer value to their audiences. Purdue Global provides an opportunity for adults to earn a respected degree and take charge of their careers, while Kroger offers high-quality products at affordable prices. The hosts of Breaking Points are dedicated to delivering independent coverage, and Nikki Haley, despite facing challenges, earned significant support in her presidential campaign. These examples demonstrate the importance of perseverance, quality, and commitment to one's goals.

    • Republican Party Coalitions in Question for Haley and TrumpDespite underperforming among educated Republicans, Nikki Haley demonstrated a following and urged Trump to win over moderates and independents. The dividing line within the GOP is now between those who believe in the 'stop the steal' narrative and those who don't.

      Both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump faced question marks regarding their coalitions within the Republican Party during the primaries. Haley, despite underperforming against the largely pro-Biden, highly educated Republican base, demonstrated a following with her pitch. She did not endorse Trump in her dropout speech and urged him to win over moderates and independents. The political landscape of the Trump era has shifted the dividing line within the party to be whether one believes in the "stop the steal" narrative or not. Trump's speech last night focused on the importance of November 5th and the need to restore respect to the country. The Republican primary in Vermont saw a close election with a potential impact from Democrats voting against Trump.

    • 2022 primary elections: Trump's enduring influence on the GOPDespite Nikki Haley's presence, Trump won handily in Virginia, and anti-establishment candidates performed well in Texas primaries, highlighting the binary dynamic between establishment and anti-establishment wings of the Republican Party.

      The 2022 primary elections showed the enduring influence of Donald Trump's personality and brand within the Republican Party. Trump successfully defined himself as the litmus test for MAGA ideology, and voters responded by supporting candidates who aligned with him, even in cases where traditional Republican figures had ruled against him. The results were evident in several races, including the Texas primaries, where judges who ruled against Ken Paxton faced challenges. The Loudoun County results in Virginia, a wealthy and influential county, also showed Trump's continued appeal, as he won handily despite Nikki Haley's presence. The elections highlighted the binary dynamic between the establishment and anti-establishment wings of the party, with voters either gravitating towards the anti-establishment figure of Trump or towards more traditional candidates like Nikki Haley.

    • Trump's Influence on GOP Leads to Fringe Nominations and UnderperformanceTrump's influence on GOP nominations benefits the establishment, but underperformance in elections has consequences, requiring the party to consider nominating more mainstream candidates.

      The Trump domination of the Republican Party has led to the nomination and subsequent defeat of fringe candidates in key races, such as in Pennsylvania and potentially North Carolina. This phenomenon, which is often framed as anti-establishment, actually benefits the establishment as it allows them to maintain power through the election of unconventional candidates. The consequences of this trend were evident in the underperformance of the Republican Party in the 2022 elections. The impact of this trend extends beyond the presidential level, with potentially detrimental consequences for state-level races. It is essential for the Republican Party to consider the long-term implications of this trend and work towards nominating more mainstream candidates to ensure electoral success.

    • 2024 Presidential Election: Large Blocs of Dissatisfied VotersThe 2024 presidential election could see a significant number of voters from both major parties expressing intense dissatisfaction, potentially leading to a candidate winning the Electoral College without a majority of the overall popular vote, as seen in the 1992 election with Ross Perot.

      The 2024 presidential election is expected to be chaotic, with significant numbers of voters from both major parties expressing intense dissatisfaction with their options. Exit polling data from California and North Carolina shows stark differences in approval ratings for Joe Biden between voters for former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. While 71% of Trump voters in California said they would vote for him again, only 26% of Haley voters indicated they would support Biden. In contrast, 52% of Haley voters in North Carolina disapproved of Biden, while 2% of Trump voters approved. These findings suggest that the Democratic and Republican electorates contain large blocs of voters who may be up for grabs or could opt for third-party candidates. The high level of dissatisfaction with both major candidates could lead to a winner in the Electoral College who does not have a majority of the overall popular vote. This dynamic is reminiscent of the 1992 election, in which Ross Perot's candidacy played a critical role in Bill Clinton's victory despite his receiving only 42% of the popular vote. The intensity of feelings towards the candidates today, however, remains to be seen and could impact third-party voting.

    • Shifting Allegiances in the 2020 Democratic PrimaryIndependents shifted towards Democrats, but their loyalty may wane. Third-party candidates could impact outcomes. Lower voter turnout, Biden's lackluster performance raised concerns.

      The 2020 Democratic primary race saw a significant number of voters identifying as independents, who appeared to shift their allegiance towards the Democratic Party in opposition to President Trump. However, it's important to note that some of these voters may return to their previous affiliations or allegiances. Additionally, third-party candidates, such as RFK Jr., could potentially impact the election outcomes. Another notable observation is the lower voter turnout compared to previous elections. Despite Joe Biden's losses in several states, he still managed to secure a considerable number of votes, but his lackluster performance and absence of a victory speech after Super Tuesday raised concerns. In Minnesota, for instance, nearly 30% of voters opted for uncommitted or other candidates, which was a surprising development for the Democratic establishment. Overall, these trends highlight the complex and evolving political landscape in the United States.

    • Uncommitted voters' dissatisfaction with Biden's Gaza policies impacted primariesUncommitted voters, mostly Democrats and independents, protested Biden's Gaza policies, outperforming expectations in some states and forcing a shift in administration messaging.

      The uncommitted vote in the Democratic primaries, particularly in states like Minnesota, represents significant dissatisfaction with President Biden's handling of the situation in Gaza and his war effort. This trend was not limited to Minnesota, but was observed in other states as well. The uncommitted vote, which often consisted of Democrats and independents, was a direct protest against Biden's policies. Despite minimal resources and organization, the uncommitted vote outperformed expectations in some states, such as Minnesota, and had a noticeable impact on the rhetoric coming from the Biden administration. The administration has responded by shifting its messaging to emphasize its efforts to secure a ceasefire and address the concerns of these voters. This trend is expected to continue and grow post-Super Tuesday. It's important to note that this issue is not limited to Arab or Muslim Americans, but is a broader reflection of dissatisfaction with Biden's policies.

    • Young voters' opposition to Israel stance impacts Dem primariesYoung voters' opposition to the current stance on Israel and Gaza significantly influenced the 2020 Democratic primaries, with their turnout crucial for Biden's victory in the presidency and the Senate.

      Young voters played a significant role in the 2020 Democratic primary elections, particularly in their opposition to the current stance on Israel and Gaza. Young voters' messages were clear, and their turnout was crucial for Democrats, contributing to Biden's victory in the presidency and the Senate. In the California primary, for instance, Adam Schiff, a Biden establishment ally, performed poorly despite the Middle East being a major concern for voters. The dynamics of the California electoral system and the presence of protesters during his campaign events could pose challenges for establishment Democratic politicians in the general election. Overall, addressing young voters' concerns and finding a solution to the Israel-Gaza conflict could be crucial for the Democratic Party's success in future elections.

    • Young voters' views on Israel and US policy shiftingDemocrats risk losing support and votes by ignoring young voters' growing intensity and passion towards Israel-Palestine issue

      The views of young voters towards Israel and U.S. policy towards it have significantly shifted, and Democratic politicians have yet to fully acknowledge or address this sea change. This was highlighted by the poll showing that a majority of Biden voters believe Israel is committing genocide, and the intense backlash against politicians who don't condemn Israeli actions strongly enough. The influence of young voters, particularly those who are passionate and radicalized on this issue, is growing, and many politicians, including Biden, have not accounted for this shift. The political landscape regarding Israel and Palestine is evolving rapidly, and Democrats who fail to adapt risk losing support and potentially even votes. Additionally, the high-profile protests and heated debates surrounding this issue at events like town halls and campaign rallies demonstrate the intensity of feelings on both sides. California, in particular, has seen significant changes in its political landscape, with candidates like Adam Schiff and George Gascon focusing on other issues rather than making Israel a core part of their messaging. However, the unexpected victory of Jason Palmer in American Samoa's Democratic primary serves as a warning sign for Democrats, indicating that they may face serious consequences if they don't address the concerns of young voters on this issue.

    • 2022 primary elections reveal shifting voter demographics and dissent in TexasThe 2022 primary elections in Texas indicate a potential shift in voter demographics and dissent towards the Republican party, with localized protests against Democratic candidates and policies.

      The 2022 primary elections have shown signs of shifting voter demographics and dissent, particularly in areas like South Texas where traditional Democratic strongholds are starting to lean Republican. A notable example is the significant protest vote for Democrat Armando Perez Serato, who criticized Joe Biden's age and policies. This localized dissent, combined with the Republican surge in 2020 and 2022, could fundamentally change the electoral map of Texas. It's important to note that this shift may not be solely attributed to external factors like media influence but also to local issues and feelings of abandonment by the Democratic party.

    • Immigration and local issues shaped the 2022 midterm electionsUnderstanding local concerns, addressing immigration, engaging young voters, and monitoring outside spending are crucial for successful political campaigns.

      The 2022 midterm elections in the United States were influenced by various local issues, particularly immigration, which was a major concern for voters, especially in the Republican Party. The discussion also highlighted the importance of understanding the unique political dynamics in different regions of the country. Furthermore, it was noted that dismissing the concerns of certain voter demographics, such as young people, could be detrimental to political campaigns. Additionally, the role of outside spending in influencing election outcomes, as seen in the California primary race, was also a significant point. Lastly, the potential alignment between certain political groups and parties, such as APAC and the Republican Party on certain issues, was raised as a potential concern.

    • APAC companies asserting power, Victoria Newland's departure, NetSuite, and infrastructure sabotageAPAC companies are strengthening their financial positions to enforce desired outcomes, Victoria Newland's departure could signal US-Russia policy shift, streamline business operations with NetSuite, and be cautious of potential infrastructure sabotage from countries with increasing military capabilities

      During this week's discussion, it was mentioned that APAC companies, specifically those in Asia, have an increased financial capacity to assert their power and influence, potentially enforcing their desired outcomes despite shifting public opinion. Additionally, there was a significant announcement regarding Victoria Newland's departure from her role overseeing America's strategy in Ukraine, which could signal a major policy shift in US-Russia relations. Furthermore, the importance of streamlining business operations and reducing costs through unified systems like NetSuite was emphasized. Lastly, there were concerns raised about the potential sabotage of international infrastructure, such as Nord Stream, and the limited conventional capabilities of NATO in the face of increasing military capabilities of countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

    • Victoria Nuland's Impact on US Policy towards Ukraine and RussiaVictoria Nuland, a key figure in shaping US policy towards Ukraine and Russia, leaves office. Critics debate her legacy, but her influence on global coalition against Putin is undeniable.

      Victoria Nuland, the outgoing Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, has been instrumental in shaping US policy towards Ukraine and Russia, earning her a place in history books for her leadership during Putin's invasion. Her efforts to marshal a global coalition against Putin have been indispensable, and her influence extends beyond the usual diplomatic circles. However, her departure and the appointment of a career diplomat as her temporary replacement has raised concerns about the future direction of US policy towards Ukraine. Some critics argue that Nuland's actions, such as backing an insurrection in Ukraine in 2014, have led to more harm than good. The comparison of Nuland to Dr. Fauci during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the complexities of her role and the controversies surrounding her tenure. Ultimately, Nuland's legacy will be debated for years to come, but her impact on US foreign policy towards Ukraine and Russia is undeniable.

    • U.S. involvement in Ukrainian coup revealed in leaked callThe 2014 Ukrainian uprising involved far-right figures with neo-Nazi connections, U.S. officials discussed government restructuring, and it was part of a larger geopolitical power struggle between the U.S. and Russia.

      The 2014 Ukrainian uprising was not just a grassroots movement, but was also influenced and hijacked by far-right figures with neo-Nazi connections who went on to join the Ukrainian government. This is evident from a leaked phone call between Victoria Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, and Jeffrey Payatt, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. The call discussed the restructuring of the Ukrainian government, raising questions of U.S. involvement in a coup. This event was part of a larger geopolitical power struggle between the United States and Russia, with various interests and players trying to profit from the situation. The lobbying schemes involving figures like Paul Manafort and the Podesta Group further illustrate the complex web of Western interests in Ukrainian politics. While the scandals surrounding Biden, Burisma, and Manafort are intriguing, they are peripheral to the main geopolitical forces at play.

    • U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland's role in Ukrainian conflictNuland's push for democratic change in Ukraine led to a power struggle and ongoing war, with her husband's ties to neoconservatives adding complexity.

      The politics surrounding the Ukrainian government's shift in 2014, led by Victoria Nuland, resulted in a power struggle that ultimately led to a war in Eastern Ukraine. Despite Nuland's goals of promoting a democratic government, the installation of a far-right, nationalist government in Kiev sparked resistance from Russian-speaking regions, resulting in a conflict that continues to this day. The CIA's reported efforts to influence Ukrainian intelligence, as revealed in the New York Times, and Nuland's departure from her position, suggest a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine. Additionally, Nuland's husband, Robert Kagan, is a prominent Neocon, adding another layer of complexity to their relationship and the geopolitical dynamics at play.

    • Two political figures with different methods, same goal: spreading democracyNewland and Kaplan's contrasting approaches aim to promote democracy, while Cinema's departure from the Senate could impact Arizona's political landscape, and NetSuite's unified business management suite helps companies reduce costs and boost profits.

      Victoria Newland and Robert Kaplan, despite working in different ways, share similar political goals, which is spreading democracy. Newland has been an internal operator, while Kaplan is publicly known for his role in the neoconservative movement. Their methods may differ, but the end goal is the same. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Kirsten Cinema's retirement from the Senate shocked the political world. She criticized the current political climate for being divisive and chose to leave rather than run against Carrie Lake. Her departure could potentially shift the Arizona Senate race in favor of Ruben Gallego, who has been advocating for Biden's domestic policy agenda. On a business note, NetSuite offers a unified business management suite that can help companies reduce costs and improve efficiency by bringing all major business processes into one platform. With its cloud-based system, businesses can cut IT costs and eliminate the need for multiple systems. Over 37,000 companies have already made the switch. Lastly, the less a business spends on operations, the more profit it can make. By graduating to NetSuite, businesses can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and increase their bottom line.

    • From Progressive Protestor to Centrist Politician: The Journey of Kirsten SinemaKirsten Sinema, a former progressive, became an independent and could earn income through speaking engagements, consulting, and committee assignments. The No Labels movement missed an opportunity to bring in high-profile centrists like her. Her wealth and centrist policies did not necessarily help the poor, contrary to No Labels' narrative.

      Kirsten Sinema, a prominent Gen X political figure, started her career as a progressive protestor but shifted to the right and became a thorn in the side for the left. She's now an independent and could potentially make a significant income through speaking engagements, consulting, and committee assignments in Congress. The No Labels movement, which advocates for bipartisan compromise, missed their opportunity to bring in high-profile centrist politicians like Sinema or Joe Manchin during the 2020 race. Sinema's close alignment with the private equity industry and centrist policies led to her underperforming in the Democratic primaries. Contrary to the No Labels narrative, wealthier districts tend to be more centrist, and spending money does not necessarily help the poor. Sinema was not herself a witch, but she has been associated with them.

    • Far-left protest organizer summoned supernatural help during Iraq warDuring the Iraq war, a far-left protest organizer invited a feminist witch coven to protest and celebrate International Women's Day, raising questions about the toxicity of the far-left during that time and how it may have influenced some Democrats to become independents.

      During the height of the Iraq war in the early 2000s, a far-left protest organizer summoned supernatural help to stop the war, as evidenced by emails obtained from the Washington Examiner inviting a prominent feminist witch coven in Arizona called Pagan Cluster to celebrate International Women's Day and protest the war. Kirsten Sinema, a former far-left protest organizer, lived through this era and her political journey raises questions about the toxicity of the far-left during that time and how it may have influenced her visceral hatred towards it. Some individuals may feel disillusioned with the Democratic party and its shift on certain issues, leading them to question their allegiance. Sinema's decision to become an independent may represent the frustration felt by some Gen X Democrats. It's important to note that the toxicity of any political group should not be conflated with the group as a whole. Additionally, there are resources available for those seeking sexual and reproductive healthcare and tools to increase one's salary. Smart businesses are also graduating to NetSuite by Oracle to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

    • Middle East Tensions Escalate: Hezbollah Missiles, Housing Shortages, and Global Infrastructure ThreatsHezbollah launches missiles into Israel, Israel considers expanding control, housing shortages and economic instability put pressure on Israel, Houthis threaten global infrastructure, and international criticism adds to complex geopolitical landscape

      The situation in the Middle East is escalating, with Hezbollah launching missiles into Israel and the Israeli government considering a response that could involve expanding their control into Lebanon and the Syrian Golan Heights. This comes as Israel faces domestic pressures due to housing shortages and economic instability, as well as international criticism for its actions in Gaza and the West Bank. Additionally, the Houthis in Yemen have threatened global infrastructure, including fiber optic cables in the Red Sea, which could further harm Israel's economy and global trade. Speaker Mike Johnson's reported refusal to meet with Israel's Minister of Defense Benny Gantz while he is in the United States seeking support adds to the complex geopolitical landscape. Overall, these developments underscore the volatile and interconnected nature of conflicts and economic instability in the Middle East and their potential global implications.

    • APAC Shifts Focus to GOP Politicians, Tensions RiseAPAC prioritizes GOP relationships, causing tensions with Dems and limiting Israeli access to top U.S. officials. Government instability and MAGA skepticism towards Israel further complicate matters.

      The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (APAC) is prioritizing its relationships with Republican politicians over Democrats, even as the GOP becomes increasingly aligned with the MAGA movement. This shift in strategy has led to tensions with Democratic leadership and has resulted in limited access to top American officials for Israeli leaders. Meanwhile, the government's inability to pass spending bills could lead to a shutdown, complicating matters further. The skepticism towards Israel among some in the MAGA movement is growing, with some arguing that the U.S. should focus on domestic issues instead of foreign conflicts. This sentiment, combined with the government's financial instability, is making it more challenging for Israeli officials to secure meetings with key American politicians.

    • Israel's Actions Towards Armenian ChristiansIsrael's actions towards Armenian Christians in Jerusalem and Nagorno-Karabakh have faced criticism and attention, potentially impacting US support and highlighting the complexities of international conflicts and alliances.

      Israel's actions towards the expulsion of Armenian Christians from the Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem, which has been their home for thousands of years, and Israel's role in arming and equipping ethnic cleansing against Armenian Christians in Nagorno-Karabakh, have gained increasing attention and criticism. This situation, combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, could lead to more traction for this issue. Some argue that American support for Israel in this context prioritizes foreign interests over the plight of the Armenian Christians. Israel's alliance with certain Christian Zionist groups, driven by a shared enemy and religious bigotry, may have unintended consequences. This complex web of interests and alliances demonstrates the importance of understanding the nuances of international conflicts and the potential consequences of strategic alliances.

    • Free Car Diagnosis at Auto ZoneAuto Zone's free 'Fix Finder' service identifies vehicle issues, saving money on simple fixes and recommending local repair shops for complex problems, available in-store and on the app.

      Auto Zone offers a free diagnostic service called "fix finder" to help customers identify issues with their vehicles, including the cause of a check engine light. This service can potentially save customers money by identifying less complex issues that can be fixed at home. However, if the issue is more complex, Auto Zone will recommend a local repair shop for further assistance. The service is available both in-store and on the Auto Zone app, making it convenient for customers. Keep in mind that there may be some restrictions to this offer. So, if you're experiencing car trouble, consider getting in the "zone" and visiting Auto Zone for a free diagnosis and potential solution.

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    The German War by Nicholas Stargardt

    The Demon in Democracy by Ryszard Legutko

    The Face of God by Roger Scruton

    Thoughts? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. (And if you’re reaching out to recommend a guest, please write  “Guest Suggestion” in the subject line.)

    You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

    “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld, Rogé Karma and Kristin Lin. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker, and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta.