Podcast Summary
The Overestimated Power of the U.S. President: The impact of the U.S. President often gets overestimated. Other important factors contribute to the country's direction. It is essential to recognize them as well and separate signal from noise.
The question of how much the President of the United States really matters is worth asking, as our emotional biases tend to lead us to overestimate their impact. Despite the current obsession with the presidency, Americans should consider the possibility that not everything is directly attributable to the occupant of the Oval Office. This is particularly relevant in the current political climate, with an anomalous and divisive U.S. president. The White House captures a lot of attention, but it is important to separate signal from noise, and to recognize other important factors at play. Experts in presidential power and constitutionalism, as well as a former White House chief economist, weigh in on the topic.
The President's Role in the Economy: While the President does have some influence over the economy through regulation and administration, economic growth largely depends on larger factors like technology, globalization, and consumer tastes. However, the President can shape economic climate through initiatives like the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.
The role of the President of the United States in the economy is less and more than what people think. The overall economy is moved by very big factors like technology, globalization and consumer tastes while the president has more influence due to the regulatory and administrative state that reports to the president. It is important to note that the economic growth happens whoever the president is, and factors underlying growth are independent of the President. That being said, President Trump can rightly claim some credit for resetting expectations with business people and creating a different economic climate through the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. The President's role is more a facilitator than a creator.
Confronting China: Past Approaches and a Way Forward: While acknowledging benefits of trade, serious issues with China require united action and steady leadership to confront and define purpose for dealing with a tough economic actor on the international stage.
While acknowledging that China is a bad actor on the international economic stage, past administrations had not really confronted China as the elephant in the room. President Trump deserves credit for confronting China, although the question remains: how best to deal with that kind of elephant in the room? Tariffs were not the right tool, and a better approach would have been to unite allies and confront China fundamentally. Dealing with China is hard as there is a lot of good in the opening up of China to the modern world, and many American consumers have benefited a lot from trade with China. However, serious issues such as the lack of adherence to the W.T.O. rules and the theft of intellectual property have made the issue more serious, requiring a steady hand from leaders defining and illustrating the organization's purpose.
Glenn Hubbard on Trump's leadership and Public faith in Government: Trump's leadership strengths are overshadowed by policy vacillation, leading to uncertainty and loss of faith in the government's ability to solve economic and policy issues. Presidential power has shifted towards sole executive action due to legislative gridlock.
Glenn Hubbard, a renowned economist, reflects on President Trump's leadership style and the U.S. citizens' faith in the federal government. He notes that while Trump has shown strong leadership traits, his vacillation in policy and policy uncertainty has created unsettling results. Hubbard expresses concerns that the U.S. public is losing faith in the government's ability to solve economic and overall domestic and foreign policy problems, which could potentially lead to a loss of faith in the economic system. Moreover, Bernadette Meyler, a constitutional law expert, notes that presidential power has shifted towards executive orders and sole executive action, due to an increase in legislative gridlock and the abandonment of the filibuster.
The Consolidation of Presidential Power through Judiciary and Executive Orders: The Senate's removal of the supermajority requirement has allowed presidents to appoint judges and issue executive orders with increasing ease. This has led to a consolidation of power outside of the legislative branch.
Presidential power in judiciary appointments has increased due to the Senate's decision to get rid of the supermajority requirement in 2013. President Trump has already appointed 50 appeals-court judges and two Supreme Court nominees. This consolidation of power is not limited to judiciary appointments. Obama's use of executive orders also aggrandized executive power. Executive orders can be as simple as ceremonial proclamations or as complex as creating policies without the need for legislative approval. Obama used this power frustrated with a Republican majority in Congress. Presidents are consolidating their power through the judiciary and executive orders while navigating congressional gridlock.
The Consequences of Obama's Executive Orders on Future Presidencies: Obama's use of executive power to establish policy baselines ultimately made it easier for Trump to undo them. Trump capitalized on this strategy to achieve his own policy goals through executive orders on immigration and deregulation.
Barack Obama's use of executive orders and actions to expand the power of the executive branch had unintended consequences, including making it easier for subsequent presidents, like Trump, to undo his policies. Obama's strategy of establishing baselines with executive actions like DACA and the Paris agreement proved to be less effective than he anticipated. Trump was able to use executive power to undo these policies by claiming he was simply following in Obama's footsteps. Trump has followed through on his campaign promises, particularly with regards to immigration and deregulation, while using executive power to achieve them.
The Power of Trump's Social Media Strategy and Influence: While Trump's legislative success may be average, his use of social media to unify his base can be a valuable lesson for future leaders. His tactics may be controversial, but they tap into public sentiment and show the power of the presidential platform.
President Trump's effectiveness in passing major legislation has been average, highlighted by the Pew Foundation's study. However, his use of social media to galvanize his base and unify them around his agenda is something future leaders can learn from. Trump has reinvigorated the symbolic and rhetorical power of the presidency and put the bully back in the bully pulpit. While his tactics have been controversial, they have successfully appealed to people’s ordinary moral intuitions and galvanized the public. The president has the greatest leverage in foreign affairs and in the administrative state where he can retain the power to fire people. The Supreme Court has been making the president's power over subordinates in the administrative branch more plenary, stating that it's not constitutional to restrict in various ways.
The Power Dynamics in the Trump Administration: While the president has used pardoning strategically and favored not enforcing existing regulations, the judiciary has gained significant power in the past two decades due to an impasse in the legislative branch.
The power of pardoning and regulation are prominent areas in the Trump administration. While the president cannot pardon himself due to the common-law precept that one cannot be a judge in their own case, he has used pardoning to strategic advantage. In terms of regulation, Trump has benefited from not enforcing existing regulations rather than passing proactive agendas. However, with regards to power, the judiciary has gained the most power in the past two decades due to an impasse in the legislative branch, resulting in significant questions being decided by the courts. Congress lacks the ability to override judicial decisions, leading to most questions being ultimately resolved by the Supreme Court.
The Judiciary's Role in the United States Presidency: The courts have gained significant authority over policy decisions in the U.S. presidency, leading to a shift in constitutional interpretation. The system needs to be altered to include the other branches in decision-making.
The judiciary has gained more leverage than the executive and legislative branches due to the inability of the latter two to make decisions. This inadvertently makes the U.S. presidency a system of presidential primacy, where the president has significant authority to determine policy in various areas. While this system has evolved over two centuries, it is not what the founding fathers intended. Unfortunately, this system has remained the same despite the election of Donald Trump as president. The courts have become the branch that decides on many significant matters, and this has caused a shift in constitutional interpretation. The focus should now be on altering the system to include the other branches more in decision-making rather than de-centering courts.
The Impact of Presidential Decisions on Daily Life: The president's decisions on law enforcement, immigration, foreign policy, and environmental regulations can have a significant impact on both Americans and non-Americans, affecting our economy and planet in the long run.
While some people believe that the president's impact on our daily lives is limited, Judge Richard Posner argues that the president's decisions on law enforcement priorities, immigration policy, and foreign policy can have significant effects on both Americans and non-Americans. The president's decision to dismantle regulations designed to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions can have a long-term impact on the economy and our planet. Additionally, the trade war he started has generated uncertainty and increased costs for imported products. While the corporate tax cut provided a short-term boost, it had no real lasting value. Overall, while the president cannot revolutionize our system or control the economy, his decisions can have a significant impact on issues that affect our daily lives.
The Positive and Negative Effects of Trump's Deregulatory Actions: President Trump's deregulatory actions may boost the economy but harm the environment and international relationships. His decisions on security, trade, refugees, and immigration have far-reaching consequences beyond economic indicators.
President Trump's deregulatory actions may have some positive economic effects, but there will be non-economic harms that may not show up in economic indicators like GDP, such as increased greenhouse-gas emissions that could impact the climate in the future. In terms of foreign affairs, some of Trump's signature decisions include withdrawing from the Paris treaty, disengaging from security arrangements with foreign countries, beginning a trade war, cutting back on refugees and immigration. Trump has power to manage foreign aid, but Congress typically passes laws related to foreign relations. Managing the executive branch involves appointing members and setting policies for various agencies, such as the immigration agencies, which have become stricter under Trump. The Muslim immigration ban, which faced pushback, initially targeted predominantly Muslim countries but was later revised to include non-Muslim countries like North Korea and Venezuela.
The Divisive and controversial use of the bully pulpit by President Trump.: President Trump has used the bully pulpit to divide people rather than unify them, which has led to polarization and anger among the public. His lack of virtue and dishonesty are also damaging to the institution of the presidency.
The power of the bully pulpit is significant in getting public support behind the president and getting Congress to act, but the way Trump has used it is different from all previous presidents. He uses it to divide people rather than to unify them. This has contributed to polarization and anger among the people. Additionally, Trump's dishonesty, philandering, and lack of virtue make him stand out from previous presidents and damage the institution of the presidency. While there is a statute that gives the president the power to block anyone from entering the country for national security reasons, Trump had difficulty enforcing it. Finally, it may be useful to introduce a new category of presidential behavior or virtue to distinguish Trump from previous presidents.
Trump's Performance as a President: Measuring Impact Beyond Behavior: A President's impact goes beyond behavior and can be influenced by external factors such as climate change. Judging a President's performance is complex and can vary from personal beliefs.
While Trump may seem like a President that breaks the rules and is aggressively attacking political opponents, he falls short in following through on his statements compared to his predecessors. However, that does not necessarily mean he is a better president. The impact of a President on the country is not solely determined by their behavior, but also by external factors such as climate change, which Trump has set back. Ultimately, a President's impact cannot be measured in the abstract and may not align with personal beliefs about their performance.
The Varying Impact of the US President: The President’s influence depends on the domain; while economy sees moderate impact of 6-7, foreign policy and judiciary control have significant impact of 9-10. The President reflects the country's mood and assigning power can alleviate pressure.
The impact of the President of the United States varies depending on the domain. While the economy may see a moderate impact of 6-7, foreign policy and control over the judiciary have a significant impact of 9-10. On the other hand, domestic affairs may not have as much presidential influence as the bully pulpit only has 2-3 impact. However, the President's influence extends beyond tangible policies to being a gauge of the country's mood and outlook. Though a singular person may not have the power to destroy the world, assigning a substantial amount of power to one individual may alleviate some pressure and responsibility from the public.
The Importance of Presidential Virtue and Effectiveness: Presidential virtue is a factor but not the sole determinant of effectiveness. It's easy to overestimate the power of the presidency, and elections can have health impacts. Take care of yourself during these times.
Experts believe that the virtue of a president is important, but it may not necessarily determine their effectiveness. The rankings of the category of virtue were consistent among the experts but fell short of a perfect score. The presidency is undoubtedly a powerful position, but it is possible that we overestimate the leverage that the president has. The audience is encouraged to reflect on this question and share their opinion. Additionally, elections may have an impact on people's health and well-being, as evidenced by an increase in healthcare use during national presidential elections in Taiwan. It is important to take care of oneself during this tumultuous time.
