#62 The Weekly Property Market Update with #askrobco and James Wild - 2/9/2021

We are privileged to have Michael Dean from Avamore Capital in the office for a highly insightful industry and of course football discussion. We talk about Avamore's origin story, their commitment to ground up development, coining the phrase 'finish & exit' to heavy refurbishment. Why 2024 is a great time to be starting a development and what the future of Avamore looks like. Make sure you check out his podcast The Property Funder.

Hello and welcome to the first super-prime UK show of 2024! It's shaping up to be a very interesting year for the lending sectors with an attractive mortgage market emerging, competitive rates, and sales numbers looking already very promising. This week, we are joined by Victor Jannels CEO of The Association of Short-Term Lenders, who gives valuable insight into the markets over the last year and foresight into the fast-paced future. With a possible high number of interest rate reductions over the next year, it's going to be a very exciting 2024.

Greetings and thank you for joining us for the European Valuers Alliance quarterly market update! Every quarter, we embark on a journey to explore diverse European regions, collaborating with top property experts to present you with the most recent data and market insights.

In this quarter’s edition, we are delighted to introduce Aleksander Karkut from ACONS in Poland, who will be joining us to share valuable expertise and insights from his home town in Warsaw.

The clocks change as we dive straight into the UK winter. On the ground, the market is busy and ticking over. There is a lot of valuation work out there which is a positive, and market specialisms continue to prevail. We believe the market will sit where it is until conditions improve in the new year.  We also discuss the flexible off-market space and the Re-work bankruptcy. What is the future of co-working?

The end of September showed us an uptick in weekly instructions with a scorching 551, which is 50% higher than the average weekly figure in 2023. In terms of stock coming on stream, this is an excellent indicator of the positive direction the market is going in. 

Enjoy the warm weekend!

The valuation and property industry has come under tremendous pressure over the last 12 months. It’s been such a challenging time for the industry’s workforce, and as we all know, it has resulted in job losses. It’s also tough to decipher which way the market is going, and this is apparent if you read any current articles about the differing opinions on the property industry or inflation. It is trendy to buy at this time of year so it will be an interesting September. Will we avoid the technical recession at the tail end of 2023? We discuss this and much more!

Hello and welcome to the European Valuers Alliance quarterly market update!

Each quarter we travel to a different region of Europe to dive into the market with leading property professionals, giving you the latest data and intel. This quarter we are joined by Cem Kurt from Denge Degerleme in Turkey.

Remember to subscribe to the newsletter for the data maps!

It's an intelligent and resilient business that performs well in low-transacting markets, and in the last few years, we have seen over and over again the fantastic people in this industry keeping their heads above water and driving their businesses forward regardless of the circumstances. 

You should all be proud of yourselves. 

This week's show discusses the Bank of England hammering home a mechanism to try and control this inflation, with the base rate increasing by another 0.25%, which James and Rob share different sentiments about.

The markets are looking more upbeat, with analysts suggesting the rates max out at 5.5 - 5.75%. The "W-shaped" model of economic activity could predict a 6–9-month period before a breath of fresh air. Nationwide has released their HPI data showing that the property market has contracted slightly month on month for July 2023 by 0.2%, which has edged the annual house price growth to 3.8%. Will Rishi Sunac hit his target of halfling inflation by the end of the year?

 

We have said it repeatedly, uncertainty is the new certainty, and the UK economy definitely reflects this. The super-prime space continues to do well and trades at similar levels as 2021-2022, with 60-70% of transactions being off-market cash deals. However, the mortgage and interest rate figures are just above the Liz Truss crisis, and we are looking at two further rate rises. The following 6-9 months are critical for the lending market.

We cannot dress this up; the remainder of 2023 will be challenging for the UK property market.