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    Abodes well? The housing crash that wasn’t

    enJune 20, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • House Prices Remain Strong Despite Global Economic TrendsHouse prices have remained robust despite rising interest rates and slowing economies, due to strong demand, limited supply, and supportive government policies.

      Despite the global trend of rising interest rates and slowing economies, house prices have remained strong and in many cases, continue to grow. Contrary to expectations, the connection between rising borrowing costs and a downturn in the property market has not materialized as significantly as predicted. This is evident in the data showing that house prices remain significantly above their pre-pandemic levels in real terms. This trend can be attributed to various factors including strong demand, limited supply, and government policies aimed at supporting the housing market. However, it's important to note that the housing market can be complex and local conditions can vary greatly. Therefore, while this trend holds true for many countries, it may not apply equally to all.

    • Housing market resilience defies historical expectationsHigh net migration, strong wage growth, and wealthier households entering the mortgage market contribute to housing price resilience. Contrary to concerns, there's little evidence of financial sector instability or a surge in bad mortgages.

      Despite some declines in certain housing markets, the overall picture of house price resilience is different from historical expectations. Factors contributing to this include high net migration to rich countries, strong wage growth, and wealthier households entering the mortgage market. Contrary to concerns, there's little evidence of financial sector instability or a surge in bad mortgages. For instance, house prices in Australia have shown signs of recovery after a 7% decline, and mortgage arrears remain low in countries like New Zealand and Canada. The financial crisis of 2008 is not repeating itself, as banks have fewer risky loans and no evidence of rising delinquencies, defaults, or foreclosures. Overall, the housing market's resilience defies historical expectations, making it an intriguing development to monitor.

    • Factors contributing to house price resilience during pandemicRegulation, savings, and changing housing preferences have contributed to house price resilience during the pandemic, with regulation and savings accounting for about half of the increase.

      The resilience of house prices during the pandemic can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, post-financial crisis mortgage market regulation has made it easier for wealthier households to absorb higher mortgage payments. Secondly, massive savings accumulated during the pandemic have provided an additional cushion. Lastly, changing preferences for housing, driven by the need to work and spend more time at home, have increased the value people place on their homes. These factors combined explain roughly half of the increase in British house prices during the pandemic. While there is a possibility of a house price correction, the lack of falling construction employment suggests that this might not be the calm before the storm, and the housing boom may have ended without a significant bust.

    • Mint Mobile offers discounted price and Botswana expands diamond roleMint Mobile lowers prices through reverse auction and Botswana aims to expand diamond industry presence via partnership

      Mint Mobile is offering a discounted price of $15 a month for new customers for a limited time, while Botswana, already a significant player in the diamond industry, aims to expand its presence through a partnership with HB Antwerp. Mint Mobile, in response to inflation, has brought in a reverse auctioneer to lower prices for its wireless service, offering a promotional price of $15 a month for new customers for three months, with a $45 upfront payment and taxes and fees. Meanwhile, Botswana, the second largest diamond producer after Russia, is looking to expand its role in the industry through a partnership with HB Antwerp. When I visited a diamond processing center in Gaberoni, I saw the transformation of rough diamonds into polished gems, highlighting Botswana's potential to increase its influence in the global diamond market. Botswana's success story goes beyond the diamond industry. When it gained independence from Britain in 1966, it was one of the poorest countries on the planet. Today, it's one of the richest African countries on the continental mainland, thanks in large part to its natural resources. The government's effective management of its diamond reserves has significantly improved the lives of its people.

    • Botswana's President Pursues Better Terms from De BeersBotswana's President is working to increase the government's share of diamond sales and bring more value-added activities to the country, potentially shifting Botswana's economic model away from raw commodity exports.

      Botswana's President, Moquetsi Masisi, is pushing for better terms in the country's long-standing partnership with mining giant De Beers. Masisi aims to increase the Botswanan government's share of diamonds sold by the state-owned diamond trading company, and also seeks to bring more value-added activities, such as sorting, cutting, and polishing, to Botswana. Masisi's efforts have raised concerns over transparency and the potential cost of these deals. With elections approaching and a deadline to strike a deal looming, the negotiations between Botswana and De Beers are causing nervousness in the industry. In essence, Masisi's goal is to shift Botswana's economic model away from just being a raw commodity exporter and towards retaining more value in the diamond value chain within the country.

    • Botswana's diamond industry faces changes with new partnerships and potential risksBotswana explores new diamond partnerships, raising concerns due to past protectionist policies and potential ties to controversial figures. Peach farmers in Georgia suffer devastating losses from unexpected frosts, marking the first major crop failure in decades.

      Botswana's diamond industry is undergoing significant changes, with the government exploring new partnerships and potential risks. Botswana's decision to work with HB Antwerp has raised concerns among some observers due to the country's recent protectionist policies and potential ties to controversial figures. While a deal between Botswana and De Beers is expected, the saga highlights the growing trend of African governments seeking better terms for their raw commodities. Meanwhile, in a different context, peach farmers in Georgia are facing a devastating loss as nearly their entire crop was destroyed by unexpected frosts, marking the first time in decades that the state has lost an entire peach harvest.

    • Georgia's Peach Industry Faces ChallengesGeorgia farmers experiment with insulating sprays, new varieties, and diversification into crops like pecans and strawberries to adapt to warmer winters and the peach tree's chill hour requirement, while maintaining their identity as the 'Peach State'.

      Georgia's iconic peach industry, which accounts for only a small fraction of the country's production, is facing challenges due to warmer winters and the peach tree's requirement for a specific number of chill hours. Farmers are experimenting with insulating sprays and planting new varieties, but they're also diversifying into crops like pecans and strawberries. Despite producing less than 10% of the nation's peaches, Georgia's identity as the "Peach State" is deeply rooted in history, with the fruit's early availability and northern appeal playing a significant role in rebranding the post-Civil War South. Though the industry's future remains uncertain due to the crop's temperamental nature, the state's resilient farmers continue to adapt and innovate.

    • Peach farmers' passion and traditionFarmers face challenges but continue due to deep-rooted passion and tradition, occasional bumper crops fuel addiction, farming is a part of their identity, resilience and determination in the face of adversity, partnerships with local businesses and global corporations provide resources and solutions

      Despite the challenges and uncertain odds, many peach farmers continue to persevere in their craft due to a deep-rooted passion and tradition passed down through generations. The occasional bumper crop fuels an addiction for some, making the struggles worthwhile. For these families, peach farming is not just a business, but a part of their identity. Overall, the discussion highlights the resilience and determination of farmers in the face of adversity. Additionally, the partnership between local businesses and global corporations, such as Bank of America, can provide valuable resources and solutions to help businesses thrive and make every move matter.

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