AP Twitter Hacked and Markets Move, Who Owns all the Gold? – Guide Rock Weekly Market Commentary Apr-29 FT026

Was it a stutter step or have markets lost their balance? Anybody who knows football can tell you a lot goes into every play. Strategy, practice, game review, and preparation all affect outcomes, as do decisions and execution during games. Many, many factors influence gains and losses on the field. Similarly, numerous issues affect the performance of stock and bond markets – a fact that became abundantly clear when pundits tried to explain last week’s market downturn. Here are a few of the things which may have helped put investors on the defensive last week: · Fears of a China bubble: According to Barron’s, a dip in the nation’s manufacturing index stirred experts’ fears China may be experiencing a credit bubble that is creating property and infrastructure bubbles. If this proves true and the bubble bursts, the repercussions may be felt throughout global markets. Full show notes, disclosures and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft053

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) appears to have taken the words of American industrialist Henry Ford to heart. Ford said, “There is one rule for the industrialist and that is: Make the best quality of goods possible at the lowest cost possible, paying the highest wages possible.” Last week, we learned from CNBC China’s annual trade was more than $4 trillion in 2013. That pushed the PRC ahead of the United States and gave it standing as the world’s biggest trader. According to The New York Times, China’s annual trade surplus, in U.S. dollar terms, was the largest since 2008 and 12.8 percent ahead of 2012’s surplus. In other words, China exported more than it imported. Full show notes, disclosures and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft052

Like the mother of a bride reviewing flower arrangements and fretting that a brilliantly sunny day could be marred by dark clouds hidden just beyond the horizon, pundits have been parsing the exceptional year-to-date performance of U.S. stock markets and fussing over the future. It’s true. U.S. stock markets look like they may be headed toward a fizzy champagne finish even after retreating a bit last Friday. Through Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index had closed at record highs 50 times this year and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index wasn’t far behind with 44 record high closes, according to NASDAQ. Full show notes, disclosures and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft051

You really need to take predictions with a grain of salt. Consider these esteemed opinions: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM, 1943 "Who wants to hear actors talk?" H. M. Warner, Founder, Warner Brothers, 1927 "Everything that can be invented has been invented." Charles Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 It’s an important to remember the fallibility of experts as we head toward a new year and pundits begin pontificating about the events of the past and predicting what may be ahead. Full show notes, disclosures and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft050

Send your questions or comments to Andrew_Hunt@GuideRockCapital.com If every piece of positive news was a petal, then you might say the American economy was in bloom last week. Moving into the holiday season, consumer confidence was at a five-month high. Early in the week, manufacturing showed improvement. On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department unfurled the news the American economy grew faster than expected during the third quarter of 2013. The next day, it was reported the unemployment rate was at the lowest level since 2008. Hourly earnings increased, as did the length of the work week. Participation in the work force improved slightly, although it remains at historical lows. Full show notes, disclosures and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft049

Send your questions or comments to Andrew_Hunt@GuideRockCapital.com In 2006, Time Magazine’s Person of the Year was ‘You.’ The magazine declared that 2006 was about: “…Community and collaboration on a scale never seen before… It's about the many wresting power from the few and helping one another for nothing and how that will not only change the world, but also change the way the world changes.” Full show notes and video at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft048

After last week’s surprisingly strong employment report, it’s almost possible to picture Ben Bernanke slapping trail dust from his leg, ducking his head, and saying, “Just doin’ my job.” After all, running the economy is as laden with complications and unexpected events as a cattle drive. Richard Graboyes, an economist who was once the Director of Education for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, wrote that driving cattle seems “arduous, but simple – walk some cattle from point A to point B. But, the endeavor is fraught with natural and human risks for both rancher and driver.” Full show notes and disclosures at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft047

Contrarians probably are waiting for the other shoe – or, in this case, U.S. stock markets – to drop. If you’re not familiar with contrarian investing, the theory goes something like this: Consensus opinion is often wrong. When the majority of investors have a bullish outlook and believe stocks are going to move higher, the chances are stock values will drop. Likewise, when the majority has a bearish outlook and believes stocks are going to move lower, the chances are stock values will rise. Why would Contrarians expect markets to head south? One reason is bullish sentiment is high. On October 23, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Investor Sentiment Survey, which measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months, shows 49.2 percent are bullish and just 17.6 percent are bearish (the rest are neutral). The long-term averages for bullish and bearish sentiment are 39 percent and 30.5 percent, respectively. Full show notes and disclosures at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft046

Curse of Chucky, Scream 2, Final Destination 5, Freddy vs. Jason… You know Halloween is nearly upon us when you can’t surf channels without exposing yourself to or relishing in a multitude of horror flick sequels. Propagating alarming situations seems to be all the rage in Washington, too. Last week, a last-minute deal raised America’s debt ceiling, saving us from a debt default and ending the government shutdown – until next January. In the meantime, hoping to avoid a sequel just three months down the road, the members of Congress agreed to put their heads together and produce a 10-year budget plan by mid-December. Full show notes and disclosures at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft045

Do world stock markets believe Congress is just offering up some Halloween excitement? Last week, they responded to the government shutdown in the United States and the possibility the U.S. might default on its debt for the first time ever with the bravado of teenagers standing in line for a haunted house. Markets around the globe finished the week higher with some notable exceptions that included Chinese and Mexican markets and America’s NASDAQ. Full show notes and disclosures at http://theAverageGuy.tv/ft044