Apple Vision Pro: Startup Platform Of The Future?

The Apple Vision Pro, a new augmented reality headset, represents a significant opportunity for startups and innovators. According to our expert, Diana, who has been working in AR and VR for over a decade, the hardware and software components of this technology are both crucial. The real world needs to be understood to effectively augment it, making this technology akin to self-driving cars but on a headset. The Vision Pro opens up new possibilities for interactions and experiences that we have yet to discover. While the road to market for AR technology has been long, with companies like Azure Reality paving the way, the arrival of the Vision Pro signals a new era for AR and VR development. With the potential to reach a billion people, this platform is worth paying attention to for those looking to build the next big thing.

Creating functional and meaningful augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headsets has been a long-standing goal in the computing industry, dating back to the 1960s. Ivan Sutherland was one of the pioneers in this field. However, despite the dream of making AR and VR a reality, the challenges have been significant. The Microsoft HoloLens, for example, attempted an optical approach, but faced difficulties due to the complexities of rendering digital content within the user's field of view and the human eye's incredible ability to focus on objects at various distances. Apple, on the other hand, is taking a different approach with its Vision Pro, using a pass-through system that displays a full digital video feed. This approach may have easier technical challenges compared to the optical approach, but the complexities of rendering a full digital field of view and dealing with the human eye's ability to focus still remain significant hurdles. Ultimately, the dream of functional AR and VR headsets is still a work in progress, requiring new advancements in physics, optics, and computer technology to make it a reality.

Apple's Vision Pro AR headset leverages both hardware and software advancements to deliver an immersive and efficient experience. By focusing on rendering high-resolution images at the user's focal point, Apple reduces the technical challenge of pushing pixels in a compact form factor while minimizing heat dissipation and battery usage. The headset's advanced eye-tracking technology, combined with over 10 cameras and custom R1 processor, enables real-time sensor data processing and augmented reality capabilities, making it a powerful and sophisticated piece of technology that rivals self-driving car technology in terms of data processing and real-time capabilities. Ultimately, Apple's expertise in both hardware and software development comes together in the Vision Pro to create a cutting-edge AR headset that delivers a seamless and engaging user experience.

Apple's new M2-powered VR/AR headset, while sharing similar technical challenges with self-driving cars and VR technology, is positioning itself as a productivity tool rather than a gaming device. This shift is significant because it addresses the need for a more practical and everyday use case for AR technology, which has the potential to disrupt traditional screen-based devices if executed effectively. The headset's connection to Apple's previous products, such as the iPhone and iPad, is evident in its advanced 3D mapping capabilities and custom processors. These technologies were honed through Apple's experience in building custom hardware and software for mobile devices. Moreover, the focus on productivity sets the M2 headset apart from competitors like Oculus, which are primarily geared towards gaming. This departure from the gaming-centric approach could make AR technology more accessible and appealing to a broader audience, potentially capturing the market share of all screens sold. However, it's important to note that the technology is still in its infancy, and there are numerous challenges to be addressed before it can fully live up to its potential. Nonetheless, the strategic positioning of the M2 headset as a productivity tool marks an intriguing development in the world of AR technology.

The release of Apple's Human Interface Guideline for the iPhone revolutionized mobile app development by providing designers and developers with essential learnings from Apple's years of research and development. Similarly, the upcoming Human Interface Guideline for the Vision Pro, focusing on eye tracking, is expected to pave the way for innovative UX designs in the metaverse. This history repeats itself as the VR community was initially skeptical of eye tracking due to insufficient hardware, but Apple's investment in this technology is likely to yield groundbreaking discoveries. Founders should pay attention to the potential of eye tracking and be open to the possibilities that end-user developers might uncover, as seen with the origins of the pull-down-to-refresh gesture. The differences between the Meta SDK and Apple Vision Pro SDK are yet to be fully understood, but the significance of Apple's investment in eye tracking for UX design is clear.

The Meta Quest 2, while sharing some similarities with game engines due to its gaming origins, may not be the most optimal choice for spatial computing applications. This is because the real world is infinite in spatial computation, unlike the constrained 3D environments in games. Moreover, developing applications for the Meta Quest 2 can require a significant amount of code, while the same tasks can be accomplished with just a few lines of code on Vision OS. Regarding the comparison with past technological moments, it's unclear whether the Meta Quest 2 is in its infancy, similar to the early days of the iPhone, or if it's the necessary iteration to unlock the next generation of innovative companies. The iPhone was initially met with skepticism when it entered the already established smartphone market. However, it took several years for the truly transformative companies to emerge. Therefore, while it's too early to tell, the Meta Quest 2 could potentially be the catalyst for the next wave of groundbreaking applications and companies, similar to the iPhone's impact on mobile technology.

Mass adoption of a new technology, such as virtual reality (VR), requires a stable ecosystem of applications and a large user base. This was the case with mobile devices, which became widely adopted once normal people had access to always-on internet connectivity and a stable app ecosystem. VR may follow a similar path, with high-end use cases leading the way, but it will take time to reach mass adoption. The success of a high-end VR device, like the Vision Pro, depends on its ability to follow up with a more affordable model and build an ecosystem of applications to attract developers and users. Founders in the VR space face a chicken-and-egg dilemma: they need users to attract developers, but they also need developers to attract users. The discussion highlighted the importance of considering failure modes and the potential challenge of building a self-sustaining ecosystem for a new technology.

Mobile and platform shifts have transformed seemingly bad ideas into successful businesses. Companies like Instacart and DoorDash, which were not specific to any one operating system, were able to thrive despite earlier failures in the same category. In the case of Instacart, Sequoia Capital, which had previously invested in the failed grocery delivery service Webvan, saw the potential in mobile technology to revive the idea. Similarly, Facebook, which started as a desktop experience, felt threatened by the rise of Instagram and other social networks, leading them to make significant acquisitions to maintain their dominance. The key for founders is to identify opportunities that truly take advantage of new platforms and technologies, such as spatial computing, and find unique aspects that can upend even established incumbents. For instance, traders with their numerous screens could benefit from a more immersive and easy-to-use spatial computing app. However, we are still in the early stages of this technology, and it remains to be seen how developers will fully utilize its capabilities.

When evaluating potential investments in emerging technologies like Virtual Reality (VR), Y Combinator looks for founders who are genuinely passionate and committed to building in that space. Instead of having a strong thesis on each technology, Y Combinator assesses each application from first principles and talks to the founders to determine if the idea makes sense. They have a track record of funding the right projects during platform shifts, such as DoorDash, by identifying founders who are excited and dedicated to the technology, despite the challenges involved. Y Combinator does not discourage founders from building in VR, but rather looks for evidence of their irrational compulsion and long-term commitment to the technology. Founders who spend their free time building VR apps and have been doing so for a while are more likely to receive funding from Y Combinator.