Beyond Montana the Fightback

The Democratic defeat in a hard-fought special House election in Montana on Thursday highlighted the practical limitations on liberal opposition to President Trump and exposed a deepening rift between cautious party leaders, who want to pick their shots in battling for control of Congress in 2018, and more militant grass-roots activists who want to fight the Republicans everywhere.Rob Quist, the Democratic nominee in Montana, staked his campaign on the Republican health care bill, but he still lost by six percentage points.NYT

Quist restored Democratic order in these counties, winning both by 34 points. Granted, that’s a little weaker than Obama’s 32-point respective wins in each relative to the statewide vote in each election, given that Quist lost statewide by six and Obama lost statewide by 14, but it does provide a very limited example suggesting that Trump’s performance in some traditional white working-class bastions may not be transferable to other Republicans, at least in the short term.Sabato's Crystal Ball