Logo
    Search

    Biden's Red Line, Super Tuesday for Bonds, and a Brexit Hurdle

    enMarch 11, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Business and political challengesAwareness and compassion are crucial for addressing invisible struggles in the labor market and political tensions, leading to healthier outcomes for individuals and organizations.

      Both the business and personal worlds are dealing with significant challenges that may not always be visible at first glance. In the business sphere, the labor market is experiencing a slowdown, with job openings in the UK at their lowest point in three years and vacancies dropping significantly. This could potentially hinder an economic rebound. In the political arena, tensions remain high between Israel and Palestine, with the US urging caution against any invasion that could result in a significant loss of life. Meanwhile, empathy and understanding are emphasized as essential tools for addressing invisible struggles, whether they be related to stress, burnout, caregiving, or misunderstanding. In both contexts, awareness and compassion can lead to healthier outcomes for individuals and organizations alike.

    • Signs of changing economic landscapeExpectations for smaller inflation increases, resilient labor market, potential end to negative interest rates, Aramco raises dividend, and Portugal's far-right party gains ground

      The future direction of federal reserve policy could be influenced by upcoming inflation data, with expectations for smaller increases than previously anticipated. This comes after a surprise jobs report in the US showed a resilient labor market, while Japan's economy grew enough to potentially end its negative interest rates. Elsewhere, Aramco raised its dividend despite lower earnings, and Portugal's far-right party gained significant ground in elections. In the world of entertainment, Oppenheimer took home several Academy Awards, including for best picture and best director. Summarizing, the economic landscape is showing signs of change, with potential implications for monetary policy and political dynamics, while the arts continue to captivate and inspire.

    • US efforts to limit TikTok affect users and geopolitical landscapeThe US push to restrict TikTok impacts users, particularly the young, and complicates the geopolitical scene, potentially benefiting YouTube and Instagram, while ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas stall, raising concerns for millions.

      The US push to limit TikTok is touching on political sensitivities from both the left and right, with potential winners being platforms like YouTube and Instagram. Krishna Vaswani, in her opinion piece, raises concerns about the impact on TikTok users, particularly those under eighteen who don't have a vote, and the failure of Silicon Valley companies to innovate and rival TikTok's popularity. Meanwhile, negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have stalled, with no sign of a truce during Ramadan. President Biden is still pushing for a 6-week ceasefire, but Israel has not ruled out an invasion of Rafah, the last bastion of Hamas in Gaza, despite Biden's warnings. These events highlight the complex geopolitical landscape of both the tech industry and the Middle East, with potential consequences for millions of users and residents.

    • US balancing Israel-Hamas tensionsThe US is urging Israel to show restraint amidst conflict with Hamas, but also maintaining their alliance and not wanting to criticize too harshly.

      The US is trying to prevent Israel from attacking Hamas and Rafah while also maintaining their long-standing alliance with Israel. Despite warnings and criticism from the US, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains the support of the Israeli population and intends to finish the plan to eliminate Hamas. The US is walking a fine line, pushing Israel for more consideration of the high death toll but not wanting to tarnish their relationship. Netanyahu is leveraging the Israeli population's warrior mentality and sense of memory from past events to justify his actions. The US response is a balancing act between rhetoric and maintaining their alliance with Israel as their most important ally in the region.

    • Brexit adds red tape for Cheltenham Horse Racing FestivalBrexit introduces additional paperwork for horse transporters, increasing costs for the Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival.

      The Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival, a major European event, is facing new challenges this year due to Brexit. Horse trainers and transporters bringing expensive horses from Ireland to the festival are dealing with additional paperwork, adding to the complexity and cost of the process. This extra red tape comes as part of the UK government's plan to secure the border post-Brexit. Although some preparation has been made, the added costs could reach millions for horse transporters. This situation highlights the increased friction between Ireland and the UK in their business dealings, despite the historical cultural significance of the festival to both countries.

    • Exploring the complexities of sports, media, and entertainment industriesSuccess in sports, media, and entertainment industries isn't just about competition, opening up to new possibilities can lead to greater opportunities.

      Dealing in sports, media, and entertainment is more complex than just bringing together big names. This insight will be explored in the new podcast and television show, titled "The Deal." While it may be tempting to think that success in these industries comes down to sheer dominance, the reality is far more nuanced. The show's creator emphasized that opening up to new possibilities, rather than focusing solely on competition, can lead to greater opportunities. Listeners can tune in to "The Deal" on their favorite podcast platforms and watch on Bloomberg Originals, Bloomberg Television, or BTV plus for a deeper understanding of the business dynamics at play in sports, media, and entertainment.

    Recent Episodes from Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

    UK Election Final Push, Biden Blames Jet Lag & US Stocks Break Records

    UK Election Final Push, Biden Blames Jet Lag & US Stocks Break Records

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Boris Johnson made an unexpected campaign appearance on Tuesday night to urge Conservative voters to deny Labour a landslide victory at the UK general election, a last throw of the dice by Rishi Sunak's Tories to try to prevent huge losses that are expected at Thursday's vote.

    (2) The last time the Labour party took over from the Conservatives, it shocked markets by surrendering control of UK interest rates to a newly-independent Bank of England in its first days on the job.

    (3) Marine Le Pen's National Rally is trying to outmaneuver rivals that are pulling out well-worn tricks to keep the far-right out of power in the final round of legislative elections on Sunday.

    (4) President Joe Biden blamed travel plans that took him to France and Italy in the weeks ahead of his disastrous debate against Donald Trump for his poor performance on stage, seeking to explain a moment that has upended the 2024 race and imperiled his re-election prospects.

    (5) For the first time in its history, the S&P 500 closed above 5,500 on Tuesday to extend a blistering 2024 rally that's left analysts scrambling to update their targets.  

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Inflation ‘Uncertainties’, Trump Immunity Ruling & UK Universities Financial Cliff

    Inflation ‘Uncertainties’, Trump Immunity Ruling & UK Universities Financial Cliff

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) The European Central Bank doesn’t yet have sufficient evidence that inflation threats have passed, President Christine Lagarde said — feeding expectations that officials will take a break from cutting interest rates this month.

    (2) French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front are weighing whether to pull candidates from the second round of the legislative election on Sunday to keep the ascendant far right out of power.

    (3) Tuition caps and rising inflation have forced schools to slash costs and recruit more lucrative international students. That strategy is now colliding with limits on immigration.

    (4) The Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Joe Biden as early as mid-July to ensure that the president is on November ballots, while helping to stamp out intra-party chatter of replacing him after last week’s poor debate performance.

    (5) The criminal trial over Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election could be delayed for a year or more after the US Supreme Court ruled Monday that presidents have some immunity for their “official” acts. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Le Pen’s Far Right National Rally Dominates French Vote

    Le Pen’s Far Right National Rally Dominates French Vote

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Marine Le Pen’s National Rally scored an emphatic victory in the first round of France’s legislative election and set its sights on an absolute majority as President Emmanuel Macron and her other opponents began maneuvering to keep the far right from power.

    (2) The euro strengthened as traders digested signs Marine Le Pen’s far-right party was poised to win the first round of France’s legislative election with a smaller margin than some polls had indicated.

    (3) Officials arriving at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat in Portugal this week will struggle to escape the political drama engulfing the euro zone’s second-biggest state.

    (4) Opinion polls in Britain are still pointing to a crushing defeat for the governing Conservatives after 14 years in power as the election campaign reaches its final days.

    (5) President Joe Biden’s campaign is going on the attack against a chorus of donors, consultants, officials and media voices calling on him to drop out of the 2024 race after his devastating debate performance. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Daybreak Weekend: U.S Jobs, UK Elections, Hong Kong Handover

    Daybreak Weekend: U.S Jobs, UK Elections, Hong Kong Handover

    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host John Tucker takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

    • In the US – a preview of the June jobs report.
    • In the UK – a look ahead to UK elections.
    • In Asia – a look ahead to the July 1st anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong to China from British colonial rule.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Biden’s Disastrous Debate & The IMF Blasts US Deficits

    Biden’s Disastrous Debate & The IMF Blasts US Deficits

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) President Joe Biden stumbled through exchanges in Thursday's presidential debate, a performance that risks exacerbating concerns about his age and intensifying Democratic worries about their candidate's ability to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November's election.

    (2) The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the US is running deficits that are too big and is weighed down by too much debt, and it warned of dangers from increasingly aggressive trade policies.

    (3)  European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc's executive arm, as part of an agreement on top jobs for the next five-year mandate. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Top Lobbyist Sees London Gaining Edge & EU Leaders Allocate Top Jobs

    Top Lobbyist Sees London Gaining Edge & EU Leaders Allocate Top Jobs

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being “out of touch” with voters as the Labour leader promised to fix Britain’s stagnant economy and ailing public services, and the prime minister used the final televised debate to attack his poll-leading rival on taxes ahead of next week’s election.

    (2) Finance chieftains are once again looking to invest in London as political turmoil in France and the US make the UK look more competitive on the global stage, according to the chief executive officer of a top London lobbying group.

    (3) Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be ready to build a new coalition that could govern if elections deliver a hung parliament as a leftist bloc he’s joined struggles to paper over internal divisions.

    (4)European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate.

    (5) The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    French Election Debate, Starmer Targets 2.5% Growth & Plane Maker Turbulence

    French Election Debate, Starmer Targets 2.5% Growth & Plane Maker Turbulence

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Leaders of France’s three biggest political groups clashed in their first televised debate on everything from retirement and taxes to immigration as they sought to convince voters that they can be trusted to run Europe’s second-biggest economy.

    (2) Keir Starmer, who polls show is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, said his Labour Party would target economic growth of at least 2.5% if it came to power at the July 4 general election.

    (3) Italy will be offered the chance to fill a senior role in the next European Commission as centrist parties look to wrap up a deal on the bloc’s top jobs before a summit later this week.

    (4) Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress in 2025.

    (5) Rivian Automotive will get a much-needed cash infusion through a new partnership with Volkswagen AG as automakers large and small rethink their strategies in a slowing electric-vehicle market. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Nvidia’s $430 Billion Rout, Julian Assange Freed & Britain’s Housing Crisis

    Nvidia’s $430 Billion Rout, Julian Assange Freed & Britain’s Housing Crisis

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, as an ongoing selloff erased a historic amount of value for the AI-focused chipmaker.

    (2) The Federal Reserve has shown other US regulators a three-page document of possible changes to their bank-capital overhaul that would significantly lighten the load on Wall Street lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. 

    (3) Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange will plead guilty to leaking US national security secrets and return to his home country of Australia, under a deal with the Justice Department that ends an almost 15-year battle over his prosecution.

    (4) President Emmanuel Macron said the agendas of the far-right and far-left blocs in France’s upcoming legislative elections pit the country’s people against each other, going so far as to say that “extreme” parties could spark a “civil war.”

    (5) Britain’s housing crisis has become so acute that the next government will need to build the equivalent of another city the size of London to make up for five decades of below-target construction, analysis of official data shows.

     

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Tory Betting Scandal, French Markets On Edge & Ozempic Drives Yogurt Pivot

    Tory Betting Scandal, French Markets On Edge & Ozempic Drives Yogurt Pivot

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:

    (1) Rishi Sunak's chances of avoiding a landslide defeat in the UK general election dwindled further as his governing Conservative Party struggled to contain revelations that several of the prime minister's close aides placed bets on the date of the vote.

    (2) Emmanuel Macron again sought to explain his decision to dissolve parliament, saying he aimed to take into account the defeat his party suffered in European elections and to avoid an even greater risk of turmoil to come.

    (3) China and the European Union agreed to start talks on the bloc's plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation. 

    (4) US prosecutors have recommended to senior Justice Department officials that Boeing Co. face criminal charges for violating a settlement related to two fatal crashes, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter it didn't identify.

    (5) The so-called Ozempic Revolution has wiped billions off the market value of food and drink companies. But new weight-loss drugs are giving a boost to at least one line of products that have sometimes previously faced sluggish demand: yogurt.  

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Daybreak Weekend: US Eco Preview, Iran Election, US-China Relations

    Daybreak Weekend: US Eco Preview, Iran Election, US-China Relations

    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

    • In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP, PCE data.
    • In the UK – a look ahead to Iran’s Presidential election.
    • In Asia – a discussion on the first 2024 U.S Presidential debate and how the U.S-China relationship will gain attention.

     

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Related Episodes

    Outerblue Conversations - The “Day After” series – Geopolitics: what’s next for Europe?

    Outerblue Conversations - The “Day After” series – Geopolitics: what’s next for Europe?

    In light of the current pandemic, Europe is progressively strengthening its geopolitical role on certain topics like climate change. But the EU has also to deal with big challenges: Brexit, coming soon, new relationships with the USA and China, digital transformation, immigration policy, and above all a huge social crisis. These issues are discussed today by Jean-Jacques Barbéris, Head of the Institutional & Corporate clients coverage and of the ESG business line, member of the Executive Committee, Enrico Letta former Prime Minister of Italy and Thomas Philippon, Professor of Finance at New York University, Stern School of Business and Administrator of the think -tank Europa Nova. 


    -

    DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

    Geopolitics, Inflation and Shane Warne with Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist of BNY Mellon Investment Management

    Geopolitics, Inflation and Shane Warne with Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist of BNY Mellon Investment Management

    This week we were fortunate enough to draw on the experience of Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist of BNY Mellon Investment Management. Shamik has had a fascinating career having worked in the UK’s Foreign Office advising ministers on issues such as Brexit and he was also Senior Economist within the Bank of England where he worked closely with the hugely influential Mervyn King. In this episode we discuss the horrendous war in the Ukraine, what this means for the world economy moving forwards, China’s future economic relationship with the West, the global inflation problem, inverted yield curves and much, much more.

     

    https://im.bnymellon.com/us/en/institutional/bios/shamik-dhar.jsp

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Ramsey_(mathematician)

    https://vermeerllp.com/             

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-dixey/

    "Expect to have very violent reactions after the pandemic"

    "Expect to have very violent reactions after the pandemic"
    Europe has had a bad few years. The struggles between North and South mostly over economics, between East and West mostly over values. Brexit, which shifted the locus of power eastward and distracted European leaders from any possibility of a more positive agenda. The pandemic, which among all its other impacts led to interrupted borders in a Europe that prided itself on having no borders. Pierre Lellouche, former French parliamentarian and minister, worries that bad is likely to get worse.