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    Bloomberg Daybreak: January 30, 2023

    enJanuary 30, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Business owners make money work hard with tools like QuickBooks and 5% yield. Global leaders meet at Qatar Economic Forum.Business owners maximize earnings with tools like QuickBooks and 5% yield. Global leaders connect and gain insights at Qatar Economic Forum, but Wall Street analysts advise caution on market gains.

      Successful business owners make their money work as hard as they do by utilizing tools like QuickBooks Money and its 5% annual percentage yield. Meanwhile, global leaders and influential figures will gather at the Qatar Economic Forum to make new connections and gain insights. However, Wall Street analysts are urging caution, suggesting recent market gains may be due to seasonal factors and short covering rather than a strong economic recovery. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson advises investors to sell this rally. On the brighter side, January has been a good month for crypto investors, with Bitcoin experiencing its best January since 2013. The economic slowdown has led investors to pour money into companies that exceed expectations, likely due to cost-cutting measures.

    • Tech Earnings and Central Bank DecisionsTech giants report earnings, Fed raises rates, jobs report reveals economy's health, and European and British central banks make rate decisions. Smaller coins surge, but US economy concerns persist, and companies cut jobs to address rising costs.

      This week is a significant one for both the tech industry and central banks. The S&P 500 sees over 100 companies reporting earnings, with tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, and Amazon among them. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, and Friday's jobs report will provide crucial insights into the economy's health. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are set to make key rate decisions. Smaller coins like Solana have continued to surge, with digital assets seeing a $280 billion climb this month. However, there are concerns about the US economy, with Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, Lisa Shalott, warning of declining pricing power and volumes after historic stimulus. Companies like Royal Philips are also implementing large-scale job cuts to address rising costs. The tech sector and central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with earnings reports and interest rate decisions shaping investor sentiment.

    • Discussions on debt ceiling and avoiding US defaultBiden and McCarthy to meet over debt ceiling, Republicans push for spending cuts, White House urges constitutional obligation, protests over police brutality, international tensions, Murthy weighs in on social media age limit

      President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to meet this week to discuss raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a US default. The discussions come as the US approaches its debt limit, with the White House urging McCarthy to meet his constitutional obligation to prevent a default, while Republicans are pushing for spending cuts in exchange for raising the borrowing cap. Elsewhere, protests continue in response to the deadly beating of Tyre Nichols by Memphis police officers, and pressure is mounting on Capitol Hill to pass federal police reform legislation. In international news, Israel carried out a drone strike on an Iranian defense compound, and there is growing concern over Tehran's nuclear and military ambitions. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy has weighed in on the age limit for social media use, stating that he believes 13 is too young for children to be on these platforms.

    • Doctor's warning against social media for kids, Super Bowl matchup, Global leaders meet, Earnings reports, Central banks decisionsDoctor advises kids under 13 to avoid social media due to identity development and potential addiction. Super Bowl: Eagles vs Chiefs. Global leaders at Qatar Economic Forum. Over 100 S&P 500 companies report earnings. Central banks make decisions.

      Children aged 13 and younger should not be using social media due to their developing identity and the potential for addiction. This was emphasized by Doctor Alok Patel, a pediatrician at Stanford Children's Health, in an interview. Meanwhile, in sports news, the Eagles and Chiefs will face off in the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs looking to avenge previous losses to the Bengals. The game was decided by a late field goal from Harrison Butker, after the Bengals committed a costly penalty. In other news, global leaders will gather in Doha for the Qatar Economic Forum, and over 100 companies in the S&P 500 will report earnings this week. Central banks around the world are also expected to make key decisions.

    • Fed's monetary policy concerns causing bearish outlook for stock market rallyRenowned investor Dennis Gartman believes the Fed's monetary policy could lead to a recession as they raise interest rates and reduce their balance sheet, potentially causing a significant impact on equity valuations and turning the recent stock market rally bearish.

      Dennis Gartman, a renowned investor and former publisher of the Gartman Letter, believes the recent stock market rally may have peaked and is now turning bearish due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He suggests that the Fed may raise interest rates by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25, and that their ongoing efforts to reduce their balance sheet could have a significant impact on equity valuations by removing liquidity from the market. Gartman also noted that the Fed is not yet finished tightening monetary policy and that this process could lead to a recession if not managed carefully. He currently holds a 10% net long position but plans to hedge against potential losses.

    • Fed's Decision to Raise Rates Amid Recession FearsThe Fed's decision to continue raising interest rates could negatively impact equity valuations and potentially decrease market liquidity, leading to negative effects on share prices.

      The Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates despite the potential for a recession. The speaker believes this is the right course of action, but it could negatively impact equity valuations. Once the Fed reaches a terminal rate of 5%, they are unlikely to cut rates or ease monetary policy for an extended period. This could lead to decreased liquidity in the market and potential negative effects on share prices. The speaker, who was previously marginally bullish, is now taking steps to hedge his position and return to neutral due to his unease with the current market conditions. Red across the board in bonds, stocks, the dollar, and gold further highlights the discomfort in the market. The Qatar Economic Forum powered by Bloomberg, taking place from May 14th to 16th, is an opportunity for global leaders to make new connections and discover valuable opportunities.

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    Show Notes
    ISM Manufacturing unexpectedly falls in October as demand stays soft
    U.S. Treasury boosts quarterly refunding to $112B of securities

    Bloomberg Daybreak: January 31, 2023

    Dollah! Commodity resurgence and Earnings: The Week Ahead July 31, 2023

    Dollah! Commodity resurgence and Earnings: The Week Ahead July 31, 2023

    AI-powered markets forecast with CI Markets. 94.7% forecast accuracy, 1,500+ assets (stocks, ETFs, forex, commodities, economics) forecasted every week. Learn more here: https://completeintel.com/markets

    Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with Tony Nash, where we discuss the latest market trends and forecasts for the upcoming week with a panel of experts including Blake Morrow, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko.

    They begin with Blake by examining the strength of the dollar in relation to the euro, Japanese yen, and the resurgence of commodities. The conversation highlights the Fed’s indication of keeping rates high, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank, and the inflationary environment in Europe and the United States.

    The focus then shifts to the Bank of Japan and the potential changes in their yield curve control policy. The speakers discuss the challenges the BOJ faces in moving away from ultra-loose policy, and the impact it may have on the Japanese yen’s depreciation and potential future appreciation.

    The episode also covers China’s economy and the challenges it faces in shifting towards a consumer-based model. The speakers mention the potential devaluation of the yuan to boost exports, as well as the appreciation of the Mexican peso and the rally in commodities driven by a weak US dollar and China’s stimulus.

    Tracy touches on the energy sector and the United States’ oil demand. The conversation explores the implications of rising energy costs on inflation and the global economy, as well as the slowing growth in margins for S&P 500 companies. They discuss the impact on luxury brands and high-end consumers, as well as the current status of AI in the tech industry, mainly with Albert.

    Lastly, the experts discuss the role of large language models in improving search efficiency and potentially replacing low-level analyst jobs. They acknowledge the transformative effect of AI advancements in search capabilities, but caution about the accuracy of information provided by AI, especially in legal contexts.

    Key themes:
    1. Dollah! (& EUR, JPY, CNY)
    2. Commodity Resurgence
    3. Earnings

    This is the 73rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

    Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
    Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
    Blake: https://twitter.com/PipCzar
    Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
    Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl


    Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/h_n_Vs0DC6M

    Unemployment falls even as job gains ease