Podcast Summary
Fed Decision, Earnings Season, and Key Earnings: The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, earnings season begins with Mastercard, and Boeing's earnings call is crucial amid 737 MAX 9 grounding
The upcoming week will be filled with significant events, starting with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday. However, Chairman Jay Powell's press conference will be closely watched for any hints on the March meeting. The busiest week for earning season will begin on Wednesday with Mastercard, MetLife, Qualcomm, and Boeing taking center stage. Boeing's earnings call will be particularly important as executives face questions regarding the 737 MAX 9 grounding. Shares of Boeing have already dropped over 20% year to date. On Thursday, mega caps Apple, Meta, and Amazon will report, along with Merck, Honeywell, Altria, Royal Caribbean, and Post Holdings. Options trading suggests large share price moves for Peloton Interactive and Canada Goose after they report. Finally, on Friday, ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, and Charter Communications will release their earnings. Economist Michael Darda suggests that to understand the stance of monetary policy, we need to focus on nominal magnitudes, which have slowed to trend. The nominal growth of final sales to domestic purchases was 4.6% at an annual rate during Q4, in line with the 2009 to 2019 trend.
Economy to Slow Down, Weekly Jobless Claims Rise, Biden's Semiconductor Subsidies, Higher Gas Prices for Californians, Vince McMahon Resigns: The economy's growth rate is projected to decelerate in 2024 due to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, adding 177,000 jobs in January, weekly jobless claims rose, Biden's semiconductor subsidies, higher gas prices for Californians, and Vince McMahon's resignation
The growth rate of nominal demand is expected to slow down in 2024 despite the strong labor market and easy financial conditions, as the Federal Reserve may not support significant rate cuts. Additionally, the economy is anticipated to add 177,000 nonfarm payrolls in January with the jobless rate remaining steady at 3.7%. However, weekly jobless claims rose above 200,000 last week, potentially due to weather-related factors. The Biden administration is planning to award subsidies worth $53 billion to semiconductor firms, including Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor, for new factories as part of the CHIPS Act. California drivers may face higher gasoline prices due to state policies discouraging petroleum production. Vince McMahon, executive chairman of WWE parent company, TAO Group, resigned amid allegations of sex abuse. The inverse Cramer tracker ETF will be shutting down after a year of trading.
ETFs tied to Jim Cramer's stock picks close, Osborne effect hits Tesla, Apple shifts focus from Mac sales: Two ETFs linked to Jim Cramer's stock picks are shutting down, Tesla's growth may be affected by the Osborne effect, and Apple is moving away from Mac sales to focus on other areas.
The ETF created to short stock recommendations by Jim Cramer, the CNBC TV personality, is closing after attracting $2.37 billion in assets under management. This news comes after the long Kramer Tracker ETF closed last year. Meanwhile, analysts Gene Munster and Brian Barker of Deepwater Asset Management identified the Osborne effect as a potential reason for Tesla's slowdown in unit volume growth this year. The Osborne effect refers to customers canceling or deferring orders due to anticipation of a new product. Apple, which introduced the Macintosh 40 years ago, is attempting to shift the narrative away from Mac sales figures as they become a smaller percentage of the company's overall revenue base. In the world of ETFs, Barclays has ranked those with the most bullish and bearish sentiment based on various metrics. Among the bullish ETFs are the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) and US Global Jets ETF (JETS). These developments highlight the dynamic nature of the financial markets and the importance of staying informed about market trends and company strategies.
Bears watching Nasdaq 100 and SOXX for potential reversal: Bears monitor Nasdaq 100 and SOXX for triple-quartering pattern, indicating potential reversal or downturn in semiconductor sector
Learning from today's Wall Street Brunch discussion is that the bears are keeping a close eye on the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). This comes as no surprise, given the significant role these indices and the semiconductor sector play in the broader tech market. The bears' concern is that these indices, particularly the Nasdaq 100, may experience a triple-quartering, which is a bearish technical pattern indicating a potential reversal or significant downturn. This is a trend worth monitoring, as the semiconductor industry has been a major driver of growth in the tech sector. Keep in mind that this is just one perspective, and it's essential to consider multiple viewpoints when making investment decisions. For more insights, be sure to check out the links to the related stories in the show notes section. And, if you're looking to join a community of serious investors to uncover great investing ideas, head to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.