China Rebounds And Cash Beats The 60/40 Portfolio

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On today's podcast:

(1) Marine Le Pen’s National Rally scored an emphatic victory in the first round of France’s legislative election and set its sights on an absolute majority as President Emmanuel Macron and her other opponents began maneuvering to keep the far right from power.

(2) The euro strengthened as traders digested signs Marine Le Pen’s far-right party was poised to win the first round of France’s legislative election with a smaller margin than some polls had indicated.

(3) Officials arriving at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat in Portugal this week will struggle to escape the political drama engulfing the euro zone’s second-biggest state.

(4) Opinion polls in Britain are still pointing to a crushing defeat for the governing Conservatives after 14 years in power as the election campaign reaches its final days.

(5) President Joe Biden’s campaign is going on the attack against a chorus of donors, consultants, officials and media voices calling on him to drop out of the 2024 race after his devastating debate performance. 

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host John Tucker takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a preview of the June jobs report.
• In the UK – a look ahead to UK elections.
• In Asia – a look ahead to the July 1st anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong to China from British colonial rule.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) President Joe Biden stumbled through exchanges in Thursday's presidential debate, a performance that risks exacerbating concerns about his age and intensifying Democratic worries about their candidate's ability to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November's election.

(2) The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the US is running deficits that are too big and is weighed down by too much debt, and it warned of dangers from increasingly aggressive trade policies.

(3)  European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc's executive arm, as part of an agreement on top jobs for the next five-year mandate. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being “out of touch” with voters as the Labour leader promised to fix Britain’s stagnant economy and ailing public services, and the prime minister used the final televised debate to attack his poll-leading rival on taxes ahead of next week’s election.

(2) Finance chieftains are once again looking to invest in London as political turmoil in France and the US make the UK look more competitive on the global stage, according to the chief executive officer of a top London lobbying group.

(3) Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be ready to build a new coalition that could govern if elections deliver a hung parliament as a leftist bloc he’s joined struggles to paper over internal divisions.

(4)European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate.

(5) The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Leaders of France’s three biggest political groups clashed in their first televised debate on everything from retirement and taxes to immigration as they sought to convince voters that they can be trusted to run Europe’s second-biggest economy.

(2) Keir Starmer, who polls show is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, said his Labour Party would target economic growth of at least 2.5% if it came to power at the July 4 general election.

(3) Italy will be offered the chance to fill a senior role in the next European Commission as centrist parties look to wrap up a deal on the bloc’s top jobs before a summit later this week.

(4) Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress in 2025.

(5) Rivian Automotive will get a much-needed cash infusion through a new partnership with Volkswagen AG as automakers large and small rethink their strategies in a slowing electric-vehicle market. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, as an ongoing selloff erased a historic amount of value for the AI-focused chipmaker.

(2) The Federal Reserve has shown other US regulators a three-page document of possible changes to their bank-capital overhaul that would significantly lighten the load on Wall Street lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. 

(3) Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange will plead guilty to leaking US national security secrets and return to his home country of Australia, under a deal with the Justice Department that ends an almost 15-year battle over his prosecution.

(4) President Emmanuel Macron said the agendas of the far-right and far-left blocs in France’s upcoming legislative elections pit the country’s people against each other, going so far as to say that “extreme” parties could spark a “civil war.”

(5) Britain’s housing crisis has become so acute that the next government will need to build the equivalent of another city the size of London to make up for five decades of below-target construction, analysis of official data shows.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:

(1) Rishi Sunak's chances of avoiding a landslide defeat in the UK general election dwindled further as his governing Conservative Party struggled to contain revelations that several of the prime minister's close aides placed bets on the date of the vote.

(2) Emmanuel Macron again sought to explain his decision to dissolve parliament, saying he aimed to take into account the defeat his party suffered in European elections and to avoid an even greater risk of turmoil to come.

(3) China and the European Union agreed to start talks on the bloc's plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation. 

(4) US prosecutors have recommended to senior Justice Department officials that Boeing Co. face criminal charges for violating a settlement related to two fatal crashes, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter it didn't identify.

(5) The so-called Ozempic Revolution has wiped billions off the market value of food and drink companies. But new weight-loss drugs are giving a boost to at least one line of products that have sometimes previously faced sluggish demand: yogurt.  

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP, PCE data.
• In the UK – a look ahead to Iran’s Presidential election.
• In Asia – a discussion on the first 2024 U.S Presidential debate and how the U.S-China relationship will gain attention.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) French President Emmanuel Macron spent much of his tenure persuading bankers and fund managers to flock to Paris after Brexit. His decision to call snap elections may give some in the industry pause.

(2) German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of the country’s 16 federal states discussed plans to outsource asylum procedures to a third country, inspired by similar initiatives in the UK and Italy.

(3) As the cheap-money era fades into history, the world’s biggest real-estate investor Blackstone is moving into riskier new terrain in the hunt for stellar returns. 

(4) The Bank of England breathed fresh life into hopes for an imminent cut in interest rates, hinting that more of its officials may be close to backing a pivot away from the highest borrowing costs in 16 years. UK consumer confidence improved for a third consecutive month to the strongest level in 2 and 1/2 years, reflecting a rosier economic outlook ahead of the general election.

(5) Keir Starmer is preparing a blitz of planning reforms if his Labour Party wins the UK election next month, aimed at immediately boosting housebuilding in Britain as he seeks to deliver 1.5 million homes over five years.

(6) A pair of large bets in the fed funds futures market are attracting attention on Wall Street by setting aside the market-implied consensus for the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) This may be one meeting where the Bank of England is thankful the decision has been made for them. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s move three weeks ago to call an election has all but ruled out a rate cut when policymakers announce their decision at 12 p.m London time.

(2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is heading for an electoral wipeout in the UK general election on July 4, according to three major polls on Wednesday, including one that projected even the premier will lose his seat.

(3) Amid a brutal hiring war, Steve Cohen’s Point72, Ken Griffin’s Citadel and other giant hedge funds are going in a radical new direction: Training schemes for in-house superstars.

(4) The head of France’s Medef business lobby criticized the campaign programs of both the far right and an alliance of leftist parties, saying they are a danger to the economy.

(5) Citigroup said artificial intelligence is likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than in any other sector as the technology is poised to upend consumer finance and makes workers more productive.

(6) As in past disputes, China looks to be readying a series of actions to punish the European Union for its proposed tariffs on electric cars. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Top Israeli military officials reasserted that their country has no choice but to respond to Iran's weekend drone and missile attack, even as European and US officials boosted their calls for Israel to avoid a tit-for-tat escalation that could provoke a wider war.

(2) China announced faster-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter – along with some numbers that suggest things are set to get tougher in the rest of the year.

(3) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has told Blomberg the central bank will likely start lowering interest rates this year if inflation continues to gradually come down. 

(4) Goldman Sachs's back-to-basics approach is paying off as it posted profits that vaulted past expectations.

(5) The UK will criminalise the creation of sexually explicit deepfake images as part of plans to tackle violence against women.  

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Town Square with Ernie Manouse airs at 3 p.m. CT. Tune in on 88.7FM, listen online or subscribe to the podcast. Join the discussion at 888-486-9677, questions@townsquaretalk.org or @townsquaretalk.

First, we speak with University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs Associate Professor Dr. Chris Bronk about the technology war between the U.S. and China, with the Biden administration attempting to restrict China’s access to semiconductors.

Then, we are joined by Rice University Political Science professor Dr. Richard Stoll and Ronan O’Malley, Chief Programs Officer for the World Affairs Council of Greater Houston, to discuss recent and current international affairs.

Both guests share insight on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent trip to China, the latest on Russia-Ukraine amidst the destruction of a bridge linking Crimea to Russia, and Sweden becoming an official member of NATO.

Plus, Dr. Stoll and O’Malley share their thoughts on recent world news headlines such as the continuing protests occurring in France, whether the European economy is in trouble, and understanding the Philippines and the new leadership of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Guests:

Dr. Chris Bronk

• Associate Professor, Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston

Dr. Richard Stoll

• Albert Thomas Professor of Political Science, Rice University

Ronan O’Malley

• Chief Programs Officer and Director of the Global Affairs & U.S. Foreign Policy Institute, World Affairs Council of Greater Houston

Town Square with Ernie Manouse is a gathering space for the community to come together and discuss the day's most important and pressing issues.

We also offer a free podcast here, on iTunes, and other apps

Putting all of your pension savings in one place to make it easier to manage your retirement plans sounds like a sensible idea — but it’s not necessarily the right solution for everyone. Claer Barrett meets 51-year-old Tina who has spent lockdown searching for all of her old pensions: some have performed better than hoped, but others have had high charges, and she has a gap in her UK state pension contributions due to working overseas. Experts Sir Steve Webb of Lane Clark & Peacock and Catherine Morgan, a financial planner behind the ‘In Her Financial Shoes’ podcast, provide tips for people of all ages looking to sort out their pension savings.

If you would like to talk to Claer for a future podcast episode, email the Money Clinic team money@ft.com with a brief description of your story. Follow Claer on Twitter and Instagram @Claerb and read her weekly Serious Money column in the FT Money section of the FT Weekend newspaper.

Further reading:

Let’s start with the basics. If you’re struggling to get your head around what a pension is, why you need one, and how they work, then check out this free to read column from Claer, A lunchtime lesson about pensions for millennials. Also Claer has written on the pandemic and pensions planning

Tina’s first task was to work out what she had in which pensions, and where. To track down lost pensions, try the UK government’s Pensions Tracing Service, which is free to use - but please do be careful of copycat websites run by commercial firms

To check how many years’ worth of UK state pension contributions you’ve made, what you could receive in retirement and if you have any missing years, use the government’s free Check your State Pension service

The UK government page Your State Pension Explained contains more information on what counts as a qualifying year 

Read this UK government advice page about making extra National Insurance contributions to your UK state pension

Contact the Future Pension Centre to find out if you would benefit from voluntary NI contributions 

The UK government’s International Pension Centre provides advice and information for those who have lived or worked overseas

Want to talk to someone about your pensions options? If you’re over 50, then you can use the UK government’s free Pension Wise service to get detailed guidance from an adviser on your retirement options

Emma Maslin, who blogs as The Money Whisperer, wrote this FT column asking self-employed women how good their pensions are

Finally, if you need some further pensions inspiration on social media, you can follow Catherine Morgan on Instagram

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This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy speak with Christian Sorace, assistant professor of political science at Colorado College. The three discuss his book, Shaken Authority: China’s Communist Party and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, which analyzes the ways the Communist Party uses rhetoric to serve its interests, the consequences of this endeavor for the region and survivors of the quake, and the urbanization of China’s rural areas. Christian spent a year and a half in the region starting in 2012, conducting fieldwork in affected areas via open-ended interviews, ethnographic observations, meetings with leaders of non-governmental organizations and scholars, and analysis of hundreds of pages of internal Party reports. What to listen for this week on the Sinica Podcast: 13:10: Sorace explains why, for a short time in the aftermath of the quake, some perceived the seeds of civil society to be growing: “This activity was limited to a short window of the rescue period in which lives were at stake and time was of the essence. And after this short window of rescue, the reconstruction phase begins, and then the picture changes entirely and top-down control was reasserted.” 18:03: Sorace elaborates on the role of gratitude education (感恩教育活动 gǎn ēn jiàoyù huódong) in shaping perceptions of post-earthquake reconstruction: “Officials would talk about gratitude education as a way of ‘removing psychological obstacles, and returning overly emotional people to a reasonable and rational state,’ so there’s also a kind of control element here.” He then elaborates on the haunting similarities between what happened in the aftermath of the earthquake and the horrors that are occurring now in Xinjiang. 26:32: “Over 7.7 million square meters of urban space was built in the reconstruction. Fifty percent of their entire rural population were moved into cities, so this is a massive expansion of urban space.” Christian reflects on the concept of “utopian urbanization” and his time living in these newly built apartments that housed disaster victims. 39:11: Superfluous slogans, turgid language... Can anything of value truly be gleaned from official language coming from the Chinese state? Sorace explains the significance of rhetoric in understanding the Communist Party: “…to dismiss everything that the Communist Party says, as this empty propaganda actually makes everything that’s going on in China actually much harder to understand. And if we pay close attention and train [our] sensitivity to listening to this ‘Party-speak,’ it actually can tell us quite a bit about what’s going on.” Recommendations: Jeremy: The Epic of Gilgamesh, by father and son duo Kevin and Kent Dixon, a graphic novel version of the original epic. Kaiser: The Vietnam War, by Ken Burns. Christian: Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins of Consciousness, by Peter Godfrey Smith, a look at the nature and evolution of consciousness.

This podcast was edited and produced by Kaiser Kuo and Jason MacRonald.

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