Congress' 2024 Outlook: More Legislating, Less Drama?

The 118th Congress in 2023 was marked by partisanship and internal divisions, making it difficult for the House to pass legislation. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was elected with a thin Republican majority, faced internal opposition from his own party and was eventually ousted. The system is set up to elect the most partisan representatives due to district maps drawn by lawmakers, leaving few incentives for compromise. One notable event was the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. George Santos, who was elected from a competitive district, was expelled from Congress over concerns about past deceptions and federal charges related to campaign and money fraud, making him the first person expelled before being formally convicted. The drama and partisanship in Congress highlight the current state of American democracy and the challenges to achieving bipartisan solutions.

The White House viewed the impeachment inquiry as a distraction and a stunt by House Republicans, using it as an opportunity to highlight what they perceived as the lack of productivity in Congress. The White House sent out frequent communications during the government shutdown threat, emphasizing the time wasted on impeachment proceedings while important legislation went unaddressed. Despite passing 27 bills in total, the number was significantly lower than in previous divided government years. The House focused on passing short-term measures and continued to struggle with approving the 12 annual federal spending bills. The Senate, however, presented a different picture. The White House's dismissive attitude towards the impeachment inquiry allowed House Republicans to focus on it as a way to gain an easy win and appease their base, while neglecting the heavy lifting of passing crucial legislation.

Despite the top Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell, engaging in cooperative negotiations, the legislative process in the Senate can still be significantly delayed by individual senators using holds to block consensus, as demonstrated by Senator Tommy Tuberville's objection to the Pentagon's abortion care policy resulting in a backlog of over 450 military nominations. This stands in stark contrast to the productive legislative output during the first two years of the Biden administration when Democrats had full control of both houses, passing transformational legislation like the American Rescue Plan, COVID bills, infrastructure bill, Inflation Reduction Act, and CHIPS Act, amidst economic and pandemic crises.

In 2023, the White House found it challenging to promote their accomplishments due to the lack of progress on key issues like immigration reform and gun violence prevention in Congress. The relationship between the White House and the new House speaker, Mike Johnson, was still in its early stages and had yet to yield any significant collaborations. The unfolding border crisis added to the complexity of the situation. Despite passing several bills in the first two years aimed at improving the economy, the American people were not giving President Biden much credit for these achievements. The administration tried to remind the public of their accomplishments but faced challenges in doing so due to the ongoing legislative stalemate.

There is a significant standoff between Speaker McCarthy and the White House regarding immigration and border security. McCarthy has sent a harsh letter to President Biden, demanding immediate action, while the White House insists that Congress must provide the necessary funding and resources. The border debate is also linked to foreign aid funding for Ukraine and Israel. The urgency to resolve this issue is high, as the White House has repeatedly stated that they are running out of resources to fund Ukraine's fight with Russia and protect Israel's democracy. The House side of the negotiation is complicated by hardliners in the Republican party who want to see certain actions taken unilaterally. The border crisis and national security are at the forefront of legislative negotiations, and it is unclear when or if a resolution will be reached soon.

The ongoing government funding dispute in Washington D.C. is complex and contentious, with internal disagreements among both parties and looming deadlines for passing 12 full-year federal spending bills. The threat of a government shutdown has returned, and there's not much time left to meet these funding deadlines. Mitch McConnell and other Senate Republicans support continued funding for the president, but bipartisan support is necessary to pass legislation in the Senate. The White House has ambitious plans for the year ahead, including a renewed focus on gun violence prevention and potential bipartisan agreements on emerging issues like AI. However, the lack of control over the House of Representatives poses a significant challenge. Younger voters, in particular, are a key demographic for the White House, and addressing their concerns on issues like gun violence prevention will be important in an election year.

Despite the political differences between the White House and Congress, there seems to be a consensus on addressing the issue of inflation. Asma Khalid, Deepa Shivaram, and Eric McDaniel, reporters for NPR, discussed how this issue is affecting Americans from the gas pump to the grocery store. They noted that while there may be agreement on the need to address inflation, there is less clarity on how to do so. Mint Mobile, an NPR sponsor, offered a solution for those looking to save money on their wireless plans, with premium wireless starting at just $15 a month. To take advantage of this offer, listeners can visit mintmobile.com/switch.