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    Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 13 – Alessandro Lazari – “Comparing Policy Frameworks - CISR in the United States and the European Union” from Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

    ENJune 05, 2023
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    About this Episode

    For over a quarter century the United States and the European Union have been diligently planning and implementing policies and procedures to protect the critical infrastructure sectors that are vital to the prosperity and security the majority of their citizens enjoy. Given the evolving nature of threats against critical infrastructure, recent US and EU efforts have focused on enhancing collective critical infrastructure security and resilience (CISR) posture. The core objective of these CISR initiatives is to strengthen their ability to deter, prevent, reduce the consequences of, respond to, and recover from a broad array of vulnerabilities, hazards, and threats to critical infrastructure. Any such disruptions to or destruction of these critical infrastructure systems and assets can have damaging impacts on individual nations, the transatlantic economy and security environment, and the ability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to fulfill its core tasks. This podcast is based on Chapter 10 in Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1). The goal of this chapter ultimately is to help Allies and partners better understand these two frameworks and apply their key principles and tenets to enhance the CISR posture in their respective countries. Click here to read the book. Click here to watch the webinar. Episode Transcript: “Comparing Policy Frameworks: CISR in the United States and the European Union” Stephanie Crider (Host) You’re listening to Conversations on Strategy. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army War College, or any other agency of the US government. Conversations on Strategy welcomes Dr. Alessandro Lazari, coauthor of “Comparing Policy Frameworks: CISR in the United States and the European Union.” Lazari’s been working as a specialist in critical infrastructure protection, resilience, and cybersecurity since 2004. He is currently a senior key account manager at 24 AG (F24 AG), focused on incident and crisis management in Europe. Alessandro, welcome to Conversations on Strategy. I’m glad you’re here. Alessandro Lazari Thank you very much indeed for inviting me over. It’s a pleasure to be here. Host You recently contributed to the book Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency. The chapter you worked on compares policy frameworks of critical infrastructure security and resiliency in the US and the EU. The US (critical infrastructure security and resilience or) CISR framework: What do we need to know? Lazari I mean, thanks for asking about this. This has been part of my PhD studies—to go on deep between the lines about everything that the US has built in the past decades—and I have to say that this is really considerable. If you think that the (Presidential Decision Directive 63 or) PDD-63, just to give an example . . . presidential directive signed by (Bill) Clinton in May ’98 still stands as one of the brightest examples of CISR policies for a while—if you look at it nowadays, after so many years, you see how very well defined is the problem, how very well defined the mechanism to tackle it and to, you know, deal with it and to improve the overall posture of US against the threat of, you know, any potential attack to national critical infrastructure. I mean, there is many examples in . . . in the US policies of things that really worked. I can tell that they constitute a milestone to which many, many countries are looking at because of the comprehensiveness. Because I can tell also that due to its particular system, (the) US has experienced a wide range of events that span across all the potential threats of critical infrastructure in the 50 states and as a federal system, so they’ve really wanted to organize something that is really very, very big. Last but not least, the US has also considerable experience in maintaining the infrastructure. One of the greatest examples is the renovation that the US government did in the old railroad . . . you know, riverways in the ’40s and ’50s and ’60s is one . . . also a considerable milestone of the experience in the US. So, it’s very much worth looking at it because there is many countries that are now in the condition of tackling those challenges nowadays. So really, throughout the entire lifespan, you know, a lot of things that are really, you know, in use nowadays that really can provide example to the way the countries should deal with CISR nowadays. Host Let’s go into a little bit more detail. What currently guides the US CISR policy? Lazari One of the latest milestones in . . . in the US CISR policy is (Presidential Policy Directive 21 or) PPD-21, signed by Barack Obama in 2013. I mean, that can be considered one of the examples of the maturity of the policy in the US. You know, in announcing all the functional relationships among the very stakeholders involved in the life cycle of critical infrastructure security and resilience, there’s so many from both public and private side. From the public side, you have (the Department of Homeland Security or) DHS and all the departments that are involved, all the agencies, and from the other side, all the operators and the critical nodes within the country and so on and so forth. So, there is a considerable amount of stakeholders that need to talk to each other to be really aligned to do better. And here, we come to the second pillar that is information sharing. Once you have identified all the functional relationship nodes, you absolutely need to cut short the distance between them. So they need to become closer and closer because they need to talk to each other, and in a country like (the) US, it’s very difficult because it’s a very big country with a big number of stakeholders involved. So for sure, this is also a challenge. And last but not least, after you have enabled, you know, the recognition of the functional relationship and the improvement of the information sharing, you then need to enable one very important pillar that is always mentioned in PPD-21: that is analysis of incident threats and emerging risk. Because you do not only deal with today, you also deal with the future. So you need to understand with . . . how, you know, uh, risks are evolving, so the emerging one . . . and you need to analyze all the incidents and threats constantly because the threats evolve as much as the society because, you know, we have new enemies, new ways to attack the systems, and history evolves; we all know that. So once you put together really this critical mass of activities and knowledge, you can say you are really structuring well all your policy on . . . on CISR. Host Tell me about the EU framework: European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection. Lazari The EU, it’s based on the membership of the member states that are part of the EU. There were 28, and, after the Brexit, now it’s 27. You know, every time, the negotiation of each steps of the policy is something that really seeks for the involvement of them all on proposal from the European Commission that is normally proposing new pieces of policy and regulation in this field. But this entails every time that member states are involved because they have a stake, they take a joint decision. But the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection is really the very first milestone. As much as it is for PDD-63 in the case of US, it is really the very first piece of joint policy on critical infrastructure protection on the European side. And this really comes immediately after the September 11 attacks to, you know, London and Madrid in 2004, 2005. It really starts from an all-hazard approach with a clear intent of fighting against terrorism. So, financing of terrorism, all aspects of dealing with terrorism and the impact of terrorism, terrorism of critical infrastructure. Then, immediately, the EU recognized within the program that the all-hazard approach really needs to be developed because it’s not only terrorism that can threaten the continuity, you know, and the existence itself of critical infrastructure, but there is many other threats that can really disrupt or create issues. So, the European program has really put together the member states for the first time ever in discussing the critical infrastructure protection. This is still, nowadays, mainly the international level. The first thing you need: competency. It still relies on the member states that are part of the EU, but the program has, really, the 27 in the condition to discuss together all the challenges, all the state of play of each one of them. So to set new goals that are not overambitious for some of them, because you have to imagine when, in 2008, the European program was launched, there were five or six member states that really had a national framework for critical infrastructure protection, and many others that didn’t have one, or, you know, they really needed to amend it heavily because it was obsolete or not taken care of on all aspects. It can be said that the European program has really created that first spark that has enabled the EU to be in the state of play it is nowadays because, for the first time, it has really asked the member states to discuss national security outside of their own border, but in a joint, coordinated manner. Host So, there were some significant changes to the program in 2016 and 2020. I would love to hear about them. Lazari After a very long journey between 2008 and 2016, the EU in, um, 2016 has decided to move a little bit to focus not only on the critical, physical aspect of critical infrastructure but also on the cyber dimension. Of course, the member states were already dealing with that, but the real pro of the EU is that there is a harmonization effort going on. In 2016, we had the promulgation of the so-called Network and Information Security Directive. This really adds an important layer now on top of the CISR policy, which is very focused on cybersecurity or what we call “operator of essential services.” This new term that is different from critical infrastructure has been introduced to identify all of those services that are delivered through the mean of the network and information system. So, really, to narrow down the focus on the cyber dimension, of course, completely integrated together with the physical aspect, because these are absolutely complimentary. We cannot deal with one or just the other. You need to deal with all of them. And it is very important to notice that even though this first NIS—Network and Information Security—Directive was promulgated back in 2020, on the 16th of December, 2020, the European Commission proposed already an amendment of this directive to launch the second directive, the so-called (Network and Information Security 2 or) NIS 2. You can see that, here, the policy life cycle has been shortened because, normally, there is a very long policy cycle between one policy and another. You have an average of eight to nine years, even 10 sometimes. Here, you see that between 2016 and 2020, you have the promulgation of the first directive, already, in 2020, the proposal. And it’s very likely that in early 2023, this will alter its course, partially substituting the first one, but adding a lot more efforts and a lot more sectors. They go from 19 to 35, so there is a huge recognition and an improvement in the terms of sector. There is also the intent to differentiate between coverage of an essential service and important service. So to create also sort of criticality assessment between the two lists of designated operators. So, I think this is very important. There is also the announcement of the cooperation among the countries, the announcement of the functioning of the EU Computer Security Incident Response Teams—so, better sharing of information regarding the incident and some support. Last but not least, also, I can tell that, uh, 16th of December 2020 can be remembered as one of the really landmark of the EU CISR because on the very same day, apart from the proposal on the NIS 2 directive, same European Commission, sending a very strong message, published the proposal also for the . . . for the so-called Critical Entities Resilience Directive. Also, here, you see a new terminology, critical entity and resilience, that goes . . . it’s very far from critical infrastructure protection. So not only we move, like, the focus is really on resilience, so in being able to withstand, to bounce back after something has gone wrong, but, also, the commission introduced the term “entity.” This is also a clear message that the type of infrastructure that we can designate is not only old style, like we only operate private operator, but entity has been used also to identify offices, departments of the public administration and the government that are really pivotal for the functioning member states and the new institution and so on, so forth. So you see that we move from operator to entities and from protection to resilience. So I think this really be remembered what . . . of the days in which really the EU has recalled the importance of the complementarity of the physical and cyber protection and resilience and the importance, also, of the states and the public administration and the governments in securing national security, EU security, and the international security because, of course, this go beyond that. Host Going forward, what does critical infrastructure security and resilience look like for the US and the EU? Lazari Even though we have this really great example of the European program for critical infrastructure protection, the PDD-63, all the executive orders, you know, every one of them in the US are very comprehensive in, you know, tackling the problem in the way it should be tackled and with all the effects that they have on the European Union, on the allied countries in NATO and so on, so forth. I think that there is some things that . . . on which we . . . we really need to improve. One of these is hybrid threats because we often talk about physical and cybersecurity, but we do not consider the hybrid threats that are all these actions below the threshold of warfare that are still to the entity or to the state or to the operator that is targeted. There is no clarity which is who’s behind these actions. It . . . these actions are also coordinated. So, there could be a state or nonstate actor that has decided to put under pressure certain systems, certain layers of our modern society, and it can be done with a combination of conventional and unconventional types of plot. And this is, for sure, one of the hot topics. The European Union has already recognized the importance of hybrid threats in 2016, and, in 2020, there is two specific documents that are being released on the point they’re working out in creating a framework for governments and public administration to try and recognize some key indicators that there is hybrid threats, that you are subject to hybrid threats, because you have to . . . to imagine this extremely complex type of environment. It’s a number of events that are not correlated because they’re happening here and there. Therefore, you don’t have control on all of them, and, therefore, you cannot really see through the fog what’s going on. You just see the vertical events, but you don’t see the horizontal plot. Social tension, fake news propaganda—they are all part of this big element. Another thing that I think is part of the hybrid threat but is not properly dealt everywhere is that nonfinancial side. We know that all these operators of critical infrastructure, the way you want to call them, or critical entities or operators of essential services—they are companies. They may be on . . . on regulated market, on the stock exchange, on support. Therefore, someone may acquire them, part of them, part of the ownership. To me, the way we scrutinize a certain operation on national critical infrastructure is not yet clear because certain strategic infrastructure should remain of national property. I don’t mean it should be public. I mean that it should have national shareholders with minimum shareholders from abroad because they are strategic infrastructure on which, first of all, speculation shouldn’t take place, but, also, you have to imagine that once you see someone in the, you know, in the board of directors, everything is discussed there, immediately goes as to where as soon as the meeting is over. This shouldn’t really happen. And this is not only happening at the scrutiny, it’s already taking place for big infrastructure. For example, Italy has procedures for that. It’s very advanced, but the . . . the way the . . . the law is tuned on very big operations leaves every small operation outside. Here, we fall into another problem: third parties. It’s not only about critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure relies on a constellation of third parties. Sometimes, they are also very small companies. They are very important in the supply chain. We don’t know who owns them. There is a little bit of scrutiny the company does on those other companies, third parties, but it’s not enough. So, the vetting procedure, the scrutiny procedure, they should really improve because we need to be sure that we are relying on the right people—that when something is going wrong, will help us out of the mud instead of leaving us in there. To identify friend or foe, as the . . . the military would say. So, this is, to me, among the hybrid threats, the financial aspect—also, the financial or third party. So, trustworthiness of the third party. Third-party risk assessment, to me, is fundamental. Host Do you have any final thoughts before we go? Lazari One last thing that is taking place anyway because of our footprint on planet Earth is climate change. To me, we need to work on the sustainability of critical infrastructure, and we need to do climate change risk assessments. This is something that already the Critical Entities Resilience Directive will ask to critical entities that will be designated under this directive in the future to do. So, to assess what is the impact of climate change on critical infrastructure, you have to imagine that the weather, among other things, is considerably changing. Fifteen years ago, no one could hear about, you know, medicane—that is, the . . . this Mediterranean hurricane, for example, in the Mediterranean. I come from the south of Italy, I’ve never heard about. We never heard “hurricane,” but, all of a sudden, in the last five years, we have initial glimpse of what it could look like, hurricanes. Of course, the proper hurricane, the one that you are experiencing in the US, you know, are much, much different, and their force of devastation is much higher. But, still, I can tell that these medicanes are already threatening our critical infrastructure because they have not been designed to withstand this type of event. Even though some of those that are designed for withstanding certain types of very severe weather events, they can be still disrupted, but ours are not designed at all. So, you can imagine the impact of if these hurricanes keep coming, and they keep increasing in . . . in their strength, the way they . . . we see them behave in other countries that are severely hit by hurricanes, this could really pose a threat to our critical infrastructure. So, for sure, the climate change has to be assessed. We will find ourselves with operators that have been used, like, operating extreme cold and in heat wave and the other way around. Operators used to work in extreme hot having cold wave, and, therefore, the reliabilities of these infrastructures may change, may be really threatened because they are not designed to operate in different condition or in very severe warm or cold. So yeah, that’s another thing that I would definitely take into account that will challenge critical infrastructure in the future. Host Thank you for your time. Thanks for your contribution. This was a real treat to talk with you. Lazari Thank you very much indeed, once again, for inviting, and, uh, all the best. Host Learn more about the CISR frameworks of the United States and the European Union at press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/955. If you enjoyed this episode and would like to hear more, you can find us on any major podcast platform. Author information: Alessandro Lazari has been working as a specialist in critical infrastructure protection, resilience, and cyber security since 2004. He is currently a senior key account manager at 24 AG, focused on incident and crisis management in Europe. From 2010–19, he provided policy support to two key initiatives at the European Commission: the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection and Strengthening Europe’s Cyber Resilience. Lazari is a fellow in legal informatics at the University of Lecce’s School of Law (Italy) and a lecturer at COE-DAT’s Protecting Critical Infrastructure Against Terrorist Attacks course. He is the author of European Critical Infrastructure Protection, published in 2014 by Springer Inc. He holds a master’s degree in law and a PhD in computer engineering, multimedia, and telecommunications.

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Dr. Cliff is a research professor of Indo-Pacific Affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. His research focuses on China’s military strategy and capabilities and their implications for US strategy and policy. He’s previously worked for the Center for Naval Analyses, the Atlantic Council, the Project 2049 Institute, the RAND Corporation, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. (Host) The Parameters 2021-22 Winter Issue included an article titled, “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan.” Authors Dr. Jared M. McKinney and Dr. Peter Harris laid out an unconventional approach to the China-Taiwan conundrum. Shortly after the article was published, Parameters heard from Eric Chan, who disagreed with them on many fronts. We’ve invited you here today, Roger, to provide some additional insight on the topic. Let’s jump right in and talk about “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan. 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First, he questions their assertion that attempting to maintain deterrence by denial would result in an arms race between the United States and China, pointing out that China has already been engaged in a rapid buildup of its military capabilities for the past quarter century, even while the United States has been distracted by the war on terror and its counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Second, Chan finds McKinney and Harris’s recommendations for reducing the cost to Beijing of not using force against Taiwan to be unconvincing. In particular, he disagrees with their claim that Taiwan is moving farther away from mainland China, pointing out that polling in Taiwan has repeatedly found that the vast majority of people there favor a continuation of Taiwan’s current ambiguous status. Therefore, Chan implies, there is essentially no cost to Beijing for not using force against Taiwan as Taiwan is not moving farther in the direction of independence. Chan also points out that the reassurances that McKinney and Harris recommend that the United States offer to Beijing are in fact things that the US is already doing. Chan’s third critique is that the cost of China of the punishments that McKinney and Harris recommend compared to the costs that Beijing would already have to bear as a result of fighting a war of conquest over Taiwan are insufficient to provide any additional deterrent value. For example, he points out that the economic cost to China of destroying the Taiwanese and Chinese semiconductor industries would be minor compared to the enormous economic damage that any cross-strait war would inevitably cause to China. Similarly, he argues that the prospect of Taiwan fighting a protracted counterinsurgency campaign would be of little deterrent to a Chinese government that has decades of experience brutally crushing popular resistance. After critiquing this strategy recommended by McKinney and Harris, Chan asserts that the only way of deterring China is to demonstrate an ability to destroy a Chinese invasion force while systematically grinding the rest of China’s military to dust. (Host) Thanks for laying the groundwork for this conversation. So what I would like to hear from you is how would you analyze these arguments? (Cliff) Yeah, so to better understand both the McKinney and Harris article and the Chan critique of it, I think it’s useful to examine the decision-making model that is implicit in McKinney and Harris’s argument. Their analysis treats Beijing as a unitary, rational actor that is faced with a choice between two alternatives. It can either use force against Taiwan or it can continue not to. If it chooses not to use force, then Taiwan will continue in its current, unresolved state. In addition, however, McKinney and Harris argued that, over time, the likelihood of Taiwan voluntarily agreeing to unification with the mainland is diminishing—and, therefore, that the cost of Beijing of not using force against Taiwan is, in fact, gradually increasing over time. On the other hand, if Beijing chooses to use force against Taiwan, then there’s two possible outcomes. It could, of course, fail, in which case Beijing would be worse off than before because not only would Taiwan remain independent, but China would also have incurred the human and material costs of fighting and losing a war. If the use of force succeeded, however, then they assume Beijing would be better off because the benefits of conquering Taiwan would outweigh the costs of the war fought to achieve that. They argue that, up until now, Beijing has been deterred from using force against Taiwan because of the likelihood that the United States would intervene on Taiwan’s side and defeat China’s efforts. Thus, from Beijing’s point of view, the expected costs of using force against Taiwan have exceeded the costs of not using force. Since they do not believe it is feasible to restore the military balance in the favor of the United States and Taiwan so that a Chinese use of force against Taiwan would likely fail, they now propose a strategy to raise the cost of even a successful use of force against Taiwan, while reducing the cost of not using force against Taiwan, so that Beijing’s rational choice will continue to be to not use force against Taiwan. From the perspective of this model of China’s decision making, Chan’s critique is essentially that McKinney and Harris’s recommendations will not significantly increase the cost of Beijing of a use of force against Taiwan, nor will they reduce the cost of Beijing of not using force against Taiwan. His proposed alternative is to ensure that a use of force against Taiwan will fail and, simultaneously, to increase the cost of China’s ruling party of a use of force against Taiwan by threatening to destroy China’s military at the same time. (Host) Where do you fall on this topic? Do you favor one perspective over the other? (Cliff) Well, I partially agree with Chan’s critique, but I think he overlooks some important issues, and I think his proposed alternative is problematic. And although I don’t entirely agree with their recommended strategy, I think McKinney and Harris’s recommendations have some value. So let me start with the part of Chan’s critique that I agree with. The value of China’s exports to just two countries, the United States and Japan, is more than $600 billion a year. That’s nearly 5 percent of China’s total economy. If China went to war with the United States, and possibly Japan, over Taiwan, it is highly unlikely that the US and Japan would continue to trade with China. And other countries, such as those in the European Union, might impose trade embargoes on China as well. Regional war would also cause massive disruption to other countries’ trade with China as well as to investment and technology flows into China. Compared to all these costs, the additional cost of Beijing of efforts to specifically destroy Taiwan and mainland China semiconductors industries would seem to be relatively minor, and, therefore, I agree with Chan that this is unlikely to affect Beijing’s calculations in a dramatic way. I also agree with him that McKinney and Harris’s recommendations for reducing the cost to China of not using force against Taiwan are already US policies, and, therefore, nothing they propose would actually reduce Beijing’s perceived costs of not using force against Taiwan over what is currently being done. There are, however, two even more fundamental problems with McKinney and Harris’s analysis. The first one is implied by my depiction of it as a one based on a unitary, rational actor, and that is the idea of treating a country as a unitary, rational actor. Now this is a valid approach when looking at individual people, but countries and governments are collective actors, and collective actors behave in ways that would not be considered rational for an individual person. This has been proven at the theoretical level by the economist Kenneth Arrow, and even a cursory observation of the behavior of countries in the real world confirms that this is true. National leaders are constantly making decisions that are clearly not in the best overall interests of their nations. In this specific case of China, China’s leaders have repeatedly shown their willingness to do anything to maintain their hold on power, no matter how damaging those actions are for the Chinese nation as a whole. Nowadays, the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China and its top leader, Xi Jinping, rests on two pillars. One is ever-improving standards of living for the Chinese people, and the other is restoring China to what is seen as its rightful place, as one of the dominant civilizations of the world. Key to the second pillar is recovering those territories that China lost during its period of weakness during the nineteenth and early twentieth century—most especially, Taiwan. If the party or its top leader is seen as failing at either of these two tasks, then they are at risk of being pushed aside and replaced by someone who is believed can achieve them. And Xi and the rest of the communist party leadership are keenly aware of this reality. If something were to occur that signified the possibility of the permanent and irreversible loss of Taiwan, therefore, China’s leaders would be willing to pay almost any cost to prevent that from happening. And this gets to the second fundamental flaw with the unitary, rational actor approach to predicting China’s external behavior, which is that it assumes that the costs and benefits for national leaders are purely material and, therefore, can be objectively calculated by an external observer. But both of those assumptions are incorrect when it comes to China’s policy toward Taiwan. China already enjoys virtually all of the material benefits that unification with Taiwan would convey. People travel freely between Taiwan and mainland China, and trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait are virtually unrestricted. China is not currently able to base military forces on Taiwan, which creates something of a strategic disadvantage for it. But, in fact, in its promises regarding unification to Taiwan, Beijing has said that it would not station military forces in Taiwan so long as Taiwan voluntarily accepts unification. The value to Beijing of formal political unification with Taiwan, therefore, would be almost entirely symbolic. And whichever leader brought that about could be confident of going down in history as a hero of the Chinese nation. Under these circumstances, it is simply not possible to objectively calculate what material price Beijing would or wouldn’t be willing to pay in order to achieve the goal of unification. (Host) So what would you recommend? (Cliff) McKinney and Harris’ proposal, as I said, is not without merit. It should be taken seriously. Although Chan makes a number of arguments as to why it might not be practical, anything that raises the cost to Beijing and using force against Taiwan can only contribute to deterring it from doing so. It would be foolish, however, to rely solely on a strategy of punishment for deterring Chinese use of force against Taiwan. And that’s where I part company with them. I also disagree with their assessment, moreover, that China already possesses the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan. In an analysis I did for a book on the Chinese military published by the Cambridge University Press in 2015, I concluded that it would not be possible, in fact, in the near term, for China to do that. And I disagree that maintaining the US capability to prevent a successful invasion of Taiwan would require an all-out arms race with China. It would, however, require focused and determined efforts that concentrate on key capabilities and their enablers, not simply on fielding large numbers of ever more advanced ships, aircraft, and other military technologies. I should also say, though, that I disagree with Chan’s prescription for deterring China, which is to threaten to grind China’s military to dust. US military planning should be focused purely on deterrence by denial, being able to thwart any Chinese effort to use military force to compel Taiwan to unify with the mainland. To threaten the survival of the Chinese regime in response to an attack on Taiwan would be hugely escalatory and could bring about just the type of all-out war that McKinney and Harris’s strategy attempts to avoid. Moreover, I don’t think it’s necessary to deter Beijing, so long as we maintain the capability to prevent it from forcibly unifying with Taiwan. (Host) Roger, you’ve really added an extra layer of insight into this topic. (Cliff) My pleasure, it’s a very interesting and provocative article, and it’s an important topic that deserves debate, discussion, and analysis. (Host) If you enjoyed this episode of Conversations on Strategy and would like to hear more, you can find us on any major podcast platform.

    Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 28 – Mitchell G. Klingenberg – Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising

    Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 28 – Mitchell G. Klingenberg – Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising
    Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic and down to the tactical levels of war. US forces partnered alongside the combined naval and land forces of multiple nations, thus constituting the first contingency, expeditionary, and multinational coalition in American military history. In the face of numerous obstacles conditioned by enemy forces, the environment, and internal to the informal coalition itself, American forces succeeded in liberating their besieged legation. While the character of war has evolved since 1900, students of war should see through disparities that appear to separate the China Relief Expedition from the historical present. Read the monograph: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/961/ E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on the monograph or the podcast. Keywords: Boxer Uprising, China Relief Expedition, Taku Forts, Empress Dowager Cixi, Qing dynasty

    Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 27 – COL Eric Hartunian On The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

    Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 27 – COL Eric Hartunian On The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
    The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage. Read the 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/ Keywords: Asia, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, North Africa
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