Podcast Summary
Chinese govt targeting critics overseas: Chinese govt accuses family of dissident of making bomb threats, denial received no attention; Harris makes first major campaign speech, unites Dems, emphasizes unity and winning election
The Chinese government is targeting critics overseas, as evidenced by the accusations against the family of a Chinese dissident for making bomb threats, which they denied. Meanwhile, in the United States, Vice President Kamala Harris has made her first major campaign speech for her presidential candidacy, uniting Democrats behind her with the support of President Joe Biden. The atmosphere at Harris' campaign headquarters was celebratory, with music playing and staffers taking photos. Harris emphasized her desire to unite the party and win the election. Biden also made an appearance, endorsing Harris and praising her accomplishments in the Biden-Harris administration. Harris' speech was well-received, showcasing her vision for the future and her ability to project a clear message.
Harris's Prosecutorial Background: Kamala Harris's aggressive stance against Trump and past as a prosecutor is energizing Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms, leading to record campaign donations and a likely nomination
Kamala Harris's prosecutorial background and aggressive stance against Donald Trump are resonating with Democratic voters in the 2022 midterm elections. Her quick rise to the likely Democratic nominee for the Vice Presidency, following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, shows her ability to energize the base and make a clear, compelling argument. Her past struggles in the 2020 Democratic primary to make an affirmative case for her candidacy in a crowded field are not indicative of her current effectiveness. Harris's message of taking on perpetrators, including Trump, is resonating with Democrats and has led to record amounts of campaign donations. Despite not being officially declared the nominee, Harris's quick delegate count and lack of serious challengers suggest a strong likelihood of securing the position.
2024 Democratic Nominee Race Differences: Kamala Harris's ability to appeal to black voters and younger voters gives her a potential edge in certain states and demographics, making the 2024 Democratic nominee race different from Biden's.
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be different for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris compared to Joe Biden's campaign. According to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Harris and Donald Trump are statistically tied, with Harris having a slight edge among certain voter demographics, particularly black voters and younger voters. This ability to potentially bring up the vote with these groups is crucial for Democrats, as Harris has a higher favorability rating with black voters at 61%, compared to Trump's best demographic being white men without college degrees and white evangelical Christians. With Harris's base of support looking different from Biden's, some Sun Belt states, such as Georgia and North Carolina, may become more competitive for the Democrats, potentially changing the calculus for the campaign.
VP picks and their impact on the election: VP picks can influence voter perceptions and potentially sway voters' decisions, but the impact may not be long-lasting and could be disqualifying if the pick is perceived negatively.
The upcoming weeks are crucial for Kamala Harris as she aims to win over undecided voters, particularly independent women, and reintroduce herself to the country. The polls show a significant increase in undecided voters, especially among independents. Harris' identity, including her black and Asian heritage, could be a potential asset in reaching out to various voter groups. However, there is also a risk of the campaign becoming divisive along racial and identity-lines, with Trump's history of making racist comments a potential tripwire. Trump's favorability rating saw a slight improvement after the Republican National Convention and the assassination attempt, but it's unlikely to last. The sympathy factor might have played a role, but it's not a significant jump. Trump's unfavorable rating is currently below 50%, but it's expected to revert to its previous high levels as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents solidify their support for Harris. The VP picks also set the stage for the race going forward. Harris is looking to broaden her base with a moderate, white male running mate, while Trump's pick of JD Vance appears to be a doubling down on his existing base. People may not vote for VPs directly, but they can influence the election by swaying voters' perceptions. The example of John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin shows that VPs can also be disqualifying.
Vice Presidential Impact: Vice Presidential nominations can significantly impact the presidential race, particularly in terms of geographic and ideological balance, as demonstrated by Kamala Harris's nomination in 2020.
Kamala Harris's vice presidential nomination has significantly shifted the narrative of the 2020 presidential race. Normally, people don't consider the vice president when making their voting decision. However, historical examples like Lyndon B. Johnson's impact on John F. Kennedy's ticket in 1960 demonstrate that a vice president can make a difference, particularly in terms of geographic and ideological balance. This was particularly evident during the 2020 Democratic National Convention, where Joe Biden's selection of Harris as his running mate was seen as a strategic move to appeal to white male moderates in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. Republicans, who were previously confident and united behind Donald Trump's nomination, were taken aback by this development. Trump himself has expressed frustration and anger over the situation, claiming it's a fraud and that the Republican Party should be reimbursed for the money spent attacking Joe Biden. The timing of Harris's announcement, right after the Republican National Convention, was also strategically smart as it likely blunted the momentum Trump might have gained from the convention. Overall, Harris's nomination has reset the conversation and poll ratings, making this a pivotal moment in the 2020 presidential race.