E59: Belarusian President Escalates Ongoing Migrant Crisis on Polish Border to Undermine the European Union

Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Retired Army General James Dubik discuss the feasibility of the Russian plan and its likely goals. They also discuss the challenges and benefits that come with undertaking this reform and expansion while the Russian military is actively engaged in a costly war with Ukraine. Dubik and Kagan assess the Russian plan by comparing it to Soviet and American training and reform efforts during and between other wars of the 20^th and 21^st centuries. This discussion also considers the Russian plan's implications for NATO.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces its world-renowned maps of the war in Ukraine. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures in occupied territory. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric.

ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt state-on-state conflict. Nevertheless, divergent Iranian and Turkish threat perceptions could lead to miscalculations by either side. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, a senior analyst and the Iran team lead at the Critical Threats Project, and Ezgi Yazici, a Turkey researcher at ISW, discuss these mounting tensions and what they mean for US national security.

This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in Iraq, how foreign interference and regional competitions are continuing to destabilize the Iraqi state, and where Iraq, and the region, may be headed in the months ahead. Click here to read the report.

A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli intelligence site near the construction of the new US consulate. The attack demonstrates the Iranian leadership’s growing willingness to use increasingly aggressive and offensive capabilities to pursue external objectives and pressure regional adversaries. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, the Iran team lead at AEI’s Critical Threats Project, joins us to discuss Iran’s strategic calculus in this context.

A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who have become increasingly marginalized in the political establishment in recent years. This bloc could complicate the intra-regime struggle to determine who will succeed the supreme leader when he leaves the scene. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with Iran analysts Nicholas Carl and Kitaneh Fitzpatrick from the Critical Threats Project to discuss this emerging bloc and what it might mean for US-Iran relations.

Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the Iraqi and Lebanese governments.