Ep. 14: Using unconventional data to forecast the job market – Thomas Hindle

In this episode, we delve into the minds of CEOs, exploring their concerns and insights as revealed in the 25th edition of the C-Suite survey conducted by The Conference Board. Our guests, Dana Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board and Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist, The Conference Board of Canada provide a comprehensive analysis of the survey results, shedding light on the external and internal risks preoccupying global, US, and Canadian business leaders.

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Dana M Peterson is the Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board. Prior to this, she served as a North America Economist and later as a Global Economist at Citi, the world’s largest investment bank. Her wealth of experience extends to the public sector, having also worked at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

Additional resources:
C-Suite Outlook 2024: Leading for Tomorrow
https://www.conference-board.org/publications/C-Suite-Outlook-2024-leading-for-tomorrow

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/focus-areas/canadian-economics/ 

In this final episode of 2023, we invite two leading economists to explore key issues facing the Canadian economy. We delve into how the world of work is evolving and consider whether Canada might be lagging behind other nations that are more readily adapting to the future of work. Additionally, we examine the increasing role of industrial policies as a strategy for governments to influence various aspects of the economy, ranging from supply chains to environmental performance.

We also discuss the challenges Canada and Canadians are confronting as we enter 2024.

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Linda Nazareth is an economist, futurist and expert on the future of work. The author of five books including her most recent Working it Out: Getting Ready for the Redefined World of Work (2023), she is also a regular columnist for the Globe and Mail and the Host of the  podcast ‘Work and the Future’.

Additional resources:

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/focus-areas/canadian-economics/

http://www.relentlesseconomics.com

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/a-podcast-about-work-the-future-and-how-they-will-go-together/id1515835849

Over the past months, various players have come out to point a finger at the role immigration is playing in a long list of what ails our country.  

From inflation, to housing affordability, to struggling post-secondary institutions, new Canadians have become an easy target.  Our guests Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at the Conference Board and Kathryn Dennler, Senior Researcher in the Conference Board’s  Immigration Knowledge Area to shed some light on the realities of Canada’s immigration system. 

They talk about how Canada's record numbers of new Canadians is impacting our economy.  They discuss Conference Board of Canada research that highlights how immigration can be an effective tool in helping to reduce the housing affordability crisis.

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Kathryn Dennler joined the Immigration Knowledge Area at The Conference Board of Canada in March 2021. Her research examines Canada’s immigration and settlement policies and their impacts on newcomers. Kathryn has worked on immigration as a researcher, educator, and service provider for over fifteen years and across five countries. Kathryn holds a PhD in Geography from York University, Canada.

Read more:

Work in Progress: How Immigration Can Address Labour Shortages in Residential Construction

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/product/work-in-progress/

The Leaky Bucket: A Study of Immigrant Retention Trends in Canada

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/product/the-leaky-bucket/

Doomsday scenarios are the currency of the day when it comes to artificial intelligence’s impact on the jobs market.  But technologists aren’t always that great at economic forecasting. To help us sort through the hype, we’re joined this episode by Mike Burt, Vice-President at the Conference Board of Canada and Benjamin F. Jones, Professor of Strategy at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Illinois. 

Mike and Ben share their assessments of how artificial intelligence is impacting jobs—drawing a key distinction between whole jobs and the various tasks that make up a job.  You’ll hear why the promise of this new technology represents a sea change in the way that economists have thought about the risks from job automation.  You’ll hear what fears they think are real and whether they are optimistic that new technologies will help to address persistent challenges like Canada’s underperforming innovation sector or broader economic inequality.

About our guests:

Michael Burt is a Vice President at The Conference Board of Canada and leads our Education & Skills and Economic Forecasting knowledge areas. He is also the executive lead for the work CBoC does with the Future Skills Centre. In his role, Michael oversees the convening and research activities of these different areas. Michael has more than 20 years of experience conducting and leading research activities.

An economist by training, Professor Benjamin F. Jones studies the sources of economic growth in advanced economies, with an emphasis on innovation, entrepreneurship, and scientific progress.  He also studies global economic development, including the roles of education, climate, and national leadership in explaining the wealth and poverty of nations.  His research has appeared in journals such as Science, the Quarterly Journal of Economics and the American Economic Review, and has been profiled in media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and The New Yorker.

A former Rhodes Scholar, Professor Jones has served as the senior economist for macroeconomics for the White House Council of Economic Advisers and in the U.S. Department of the Treasury.  Professor Jones is a non-resident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he co-directs the Innovation Policy Working Group, a senior fellow of the Institute for Progress, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Additional information:
www.conferenceboard.ca 

The year 2023 has already marked itself as Canada's worst forest fire season in history, and it's only July. A glance at today's fire map reveals almost every province battling blazes that have spiraled out of control.

In this episode, our guests Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist of The Conference Board of Canada and Derek Nighbor, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Forest Products Association of Canada, discuss the impacts on people, the economy and communities of the forest fires we've seen so far this year.  We discuss how climate change is making forestry management a more critical task and how the increased risks we're seeing from fires and other climate related issues are further complicating the task of economists who are mapping out the direction of our economy.

We discuss what else can be done to prevent forest fires from getting out of control in the future. We also explore whether record breaking forest fires, and the smoke that they bring to communities across Canada, is something that we should be preparing for in the future.

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Derek Nighbor has been leading Forest Products Association of Canada (FPAC) as President and Chief Executive Officer since March of 2016. Representing the industry and its stakeholders at a national and international level, Derek champions the interests of workers, families, and communities associated with Canada's forest products sector. Prior to FPAC, he served as Senior Vice President of Food & Consumer Products of Canada (FCPC) for over 7 years. His career also includes senior roles with Retail Council of Canada (RCC) and the Government of Ontario. With global appointments such as the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF) and the International Council of Forest & Paper Associations (ICFPA), Derek actively contributes to shaping sustainable practices in the forest sector. He further demonstrates his commitment to community well-being through his involvement in healthcare initiatives and sports organizations.

The Conference Board of Canada's Economic Forecasting Unit: https://www.conferenceboard.ca/focus-areas/canadian-economics/ 

Forest Products Association of Canada: www.fpac.ca

The pandemic created upward pressure on housing and recent increases in interest rates are pushing affordability even further away for some. The OECD now ranks Canada as having the most expensive housing market among all other G7 countries. 

Our guests this episode explore how we got to this point and what if anything can be done to create a more affordable housing market. They share that not only are housing prices forecasted to continue to rise, but that the affordability crisis is extending deep into the rental markets. This is further deepening the crisis and creates greater pressure for near and long-term solutions.

About our guests:

Tony Bonen is the Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board of Canada. In this role Tony provides strategic leadership to a dynamic team producing insightful custom analyses for the Board’s partners. He collaborates across disciplines and Focus Areas to ensure the Boards economic research is meaningful for leaders across Canada.

Tony brings significant experience managing research and providing guidance on a wide range of economic issues. Prior to joining the Board, he served as the Executive Director at the Labour Market Information Council (LMIC), building on his previous work as LMIC’s founding Director of Research, Data and Analytics. While in the risk department at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Tony led the development of housing price and macroeconomic forecasts used in stress testing. He analyzed the economic impacts of climate change and the US pension and retirement system at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, and the economic policy and geopolitical analysis affecting member countries while at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

John Pasalis is the President of Realosophy Realty, a Toronto real estate brokerage. A frequent commentator on the Toronto housing market, John has contributed to the Globe and Mail, BNN Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and other media, government and industry organizations. His research has been shared with the IMF and Statistics Canada and cited by the Bank of Canada and CMHC.

John holds a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Toronto, an MSc in Business and Management Research from the University of Reading and is currently completing a Doctor of Business Administration at the University of Reading and the University of Toronto.

In this episode, our guests Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist of The Conference Board of Canada, and Kevin Page, founding President and CEO of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, discuss the evolving definition of fiscal responsibility in 2023. They address key issues such as the lack of consensus around debts and deficits, the influence of macroeconomic drivers on federal spending, the potential need for revenue increases, and the consequences of borrowing from future generations. They also provide advice to government policymakers as they navigate complex challenges like fiscal sustainability, growth, inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine, climate change, and energy transition. 

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes
Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Kevin Page
Kevin Page is the founding President and CEO of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa. Mr. Page was born in Fort William (Thunder Bay), Ontario. His undergraduate education took place at Lakehead University (Ontario) & Simon Fraser University (British- Columbia) and he has an M.A. in Economics from Queen's University, an Honorary Doctor of Laws from Lakehead University, and an Honorary Doctorate from the University of York (United Kingdom).

Read more:

The Conference Board of Canada's Economic Forecasting Unit
https://www.conferenceboard.ca/focus-areas/canadian-economics/

Clean and Green but Not Very Lean: Our Analysis of the Federal Budget 2023
https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/federal-budget-2023-analysis/

Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa
https://www.ifsd.ca 

Thumbs up: Budget 2023 has a credible fiscal plan – deficit, spending are modest
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-federal-budget-2023-fiscal-plan/

Budget 2023: Will the Government Stay the Course on Deficit Reduction?
https://www.policymagazine.ca/author/kevin-page-with-alex-eikre-and-zhihan-li/

Canada’s mobile broadband usage numbers are dismal.  We rank dead last in mobile broadband users and have some of lowest mobile data usage compared to other G7 countries. These metrics need to improve.  While there is much discussion on the number of providers and the competitiveness of our telecommunications industry, there’s another way to move the needle.

Research by The Conference Board of Canada shows that increased tower sharing can play a role in changing this critical metric for Canadians.  It could allow for more tower development in rural and remote regions, eliminate redundancies in infrastructure development, reduce the environmental impact of passive infrastructure, and lead to improved connectivity.  In this episode, our guests Dan Carpenter, Research Associate, The Conference Board of Canada and Wendy Zatylny, Country Manager, SBA Communications Canada join us to discuss how changes at the federal and municipal levels could help foster the growth of the tower sharing industry in Canada.

Read more:

• Improving Tower Sharing in Canada: The Potential Role of a Healthy Independent Tower Industry (CBoC)
• Sharing Towers: Canada’s Potential for an Independent Tower Industry (CBoC)

About our guests:

Dan Carpenter is a Research Associate on the Innovation and Technology team at the Conference Board of Canada. Previous to this, he worked in the finance and tech sectors. Dan has conducted research on a range of topics, such as analyzing global cleantech markets, exploring how Canadian businesses are adapting to automation, and producing several Future Skills Centre reports on occupational transitions. Dan completed his Master’s in Globalization from McMaster University where he focused on the global governance of artificial intelligence. 

Wendy Zatylny is Country Manager, Canada, SBA Communications Canada.  Wendy Zatylny, the first female country manager in SBA's international markets. 

 Prior to joining SBA Canada, Wendy was the President of the Association of Canadian Port Authorities for nine years. With over 25 years of experience in domestic and international communications, Wendy is a skilled strategist and executive with a distinctive set of talents. Her expertise encompasses a broad range of areas, including strategic and policy planning and implementation, stakeholder relations, government affairs, event and media planning, crisis management, media spokespersonship, and writing. Additionally, she possesses proficiency in producing top-notch print and collateral materials, as well as multimedia and social media products. Beyond work, she is a ballroom dancer and a proud mother to a son who plays rugby.

In this episode of Economics Matters, we look behind the curtain at the world of economic forecasting.  Our colleague Ted Mallett, The Conference Board of Canada’s Director of Economic Forecasting, gives us his take on how he and his team approach business of economic forecasting. 

We discuss the mechanics of economic forecasting, the models, the data sources as well as the ways in which Ted and his team incorporate observations on human behaviours to guide the outputs of the models and derive meaningful insights on the direction of the economy.

About our guest: 

Ted Mallett is the Director of the Economic Forecasting team at The Conference Board of Canada. Ted is responsible for the strategic direction of this Knowledge Area, as well as its day-to-day operations. He oversees the planning and production of regular forecast publications at the national, provincial, metro, and industry levels.

Ted is a nationally recognized economist with more than three decades of experience in economic policy analysis and forecasting. He is known for producing innovative and unique insights in areas not often covered by traditional sources of data. As a frequent contributor to media and a member of several senior advisory bodies to governments, Ted is adept at identifying, anticipating, and articulating emerging trends and challenges leaders will face in our economy.

Check out Conference Board of Canada forecasts at: https://www.conferenceboard.ca/focus-areas/canadian-economics/ 

For economists, inequality is a critical issue because the more unequal a society is, the more challenging it is for that economy to grow and thrive. 

This episode we explore the data on inequality in Canada to separate fact from fiction. We discuss whether inequality is growing in Canada. We also explore the question of whether the way economists normally approach this topic is up to the task of addressing the various concerns that get lumped into discussions of inequality.

About our guests:

Pedro Antunes

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors. Pedro provides media interviews in English and French as well as expert testimony before parliamentary and senate committees. He is widely sought for speaking engagements and presentations to industry leaders and decision-makers on a broad range of issues and topics that impact Canadians.

Dr. Mike Moffatt

Dr. Mike Moffatt is the Senior Director of Policy and Innovation at the Smart Prosperity Institute and an Assistant Professor in the Business, Economics and Public Policy group at Ivey Business School, Western University. Mike’s research at SPI focuses on the intersection of regional economic development, building child-friendly, climate-friendly housing and communities, and clean innovation. In 2017, Mike was the Chief Innovation Fellow for the Government of Canada, advising Deputy Ministers on innovation policy and emerging trends.

Read more:

Inequality in Canada: Separating Fact From Fiction | The Conference Board of Canada
Smart Prosperity Institute | https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/