Ep. 498 Warning Signs Ahead for the GOP?

Podcast Summary

• Free speech suppression on the far left: Dan Bongino discussed the issue of free speech suppression on the far left, referencing Obamacare's impact on job losses and Reagan's tax reform in relation to ongoing debates.

  Dan Bongino, during his radio show, discussed the issue of free speech suppression being a phenomenon predominantly found on the far left. He also touched upon various topics including the economy, fitness, and politics. One political topic he explored was the impact of Obamacare on job losses, referencing an analysis by Casey Mulligan. Another topic was Reagan's tax reform and its relevance to the ongoing tax reform debate. Bongino also mentioned the generic ballot for the midterm elections and encouraged listeners to stay informed by subscribing to his email list for daily show notes and articles. In terms of personal anecdotes, Bongino shared his own experiences with staying fit and strong through heavy weightlifting and push-ups.

• Historical trends suggest potential Republican losses in midterm elections: Republicans may face significant losses in the upcoming midterm elections based on historical trends and current data from the generic ballot.

  Political analyst Larry Sabato is raising concerns for the Republican Party, warning them of potential losses in the upcoming midterm elections based on historical trends and current data from the generic ballot. The midterm elections, which determine control of the House of Representatives, have seen the party in power lose seats in 16 out of 18 instances since World War II. For the Democrats to regain control, they would need to gain 24 seats. According to analysis by Alan Abramowitz, the Democrats are currently leading in the generic ballot by around six to eight points, which is roughly where they need to be for a Democratic takeover. While it's important to note that historical trends do not guarantee outcomes, and there are still several months until the elections, these numbers indicate that Republicans should be preparing for a challenging midterm cycle.

• Republicans face potential midterm election loss: The generic ballot shows a significant Republican deficit, which could lead to a Democrat takeover of Congress. Encourage conservative voters to participate to mitigate potential consequences.

  The Republican Party is currently facing a potential loss in the upcoming midterm elections based on current polling data. The generic ballot shows a deficit of around minus seven points, which could translate to a Democrat takeover if the correlation between the generic ballot and election results remains strong. It's crucial for Republicans to get involved and encourage conservative voters to participate in the midterms. The situation is serious, and even if the polls may not be dispositive, the potential consequences of a Democrat-controlled Congress could lead to obstruction and logjams in legislation. Additionally, Freedom Project Academy was mentioned as an alternative to government-controlled schools for families whose values aren't aligned with their children's current education. It's a fully accredited, Judeo-Christian live online school for kindergarten through high school, with no common core and government-free education. Freedom Project Academy offers live teacher instruction, online access to recordings, assignments, grades, and tutoring. You can learn more about Freedom Project Academy by visiting their website, FPEUSA.org.

• Obamacare's Employer Mandate: A Job Killer: Obamacare's employer mandate is estimated to cost 250,000 jobs annually by incentivizing businesses to reduce their workforce size to avoid providing health insurance for their employees.

  That Obamacare, if left unchanged, is estimated to cost approximately 250,000 jobs annually. This job loss can be attributed to the employer mandate, which requires companies with 50 or more employees to provide health insurance for their workers. While some may argue that larger companies should offer insurance, the reality is that this mandate creates an incentive for businesses to reduce their workforce size to avoid the obligation. Liberals, who often focus on the emotional aspect of this issue, may not fully grasp this concept. However, it's essential to understand the economic implications of Obamacare's employer mandate to effectively debate the issue with them. Casey Mulligan, a renowned researcher, recently highlighted this issue in the Wall Street Journal. It's crucial to acknowledge the facts and incentives at play to have an informed and productive conversation about Obamacare.

• The '49er problem': Small businesses avoiding hiring the 50th employee due to ACA costs: The ACA's financial penalties for hiring additional full-time employees discourages small to medium-sized businesses from expanding their workforce, costing potential new hires $250,000 annually across the country.

  The Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, imposes significant financial penalties on businesses that hire an additional full-time employee, making it economically unfeasible for some small to medium-sized companies to expand their workforce. The cost of providing health insurance for all employees after hiring the 50th employee is estimated to be around $70,000 per year. This financial burden, known as the "49er problem," discourages businesses from hiring new employees and can result in a loss of $250,000 in potential new hires annually across the country. Despite Democratic arguments that this is an isolated issue, studies have shown that many businesses in the 40 to 60 employee range are indeed avoiding hiring the 50th employee due to the financial strain caused by the ACA.

• Policies driven by emotion can limit job growth: Emotional policies, like requiring small businesses to provide compliant health insurance or protecting industries with tariffs, can result in job losses and unintended negative consequences

  Economic policies driven by emotion can have unintended consequences, such as limiting job growth. For instance, a rule requiring small businesses with 50 or more employees to provide Obamacare-compliant health insurance plans can prevent these businesses from expanding due to the added cost. This can result in a significant loss of jobs, as estimated to be around 250,000 jobs annually. A historical example of this is the Brazilian computer industry, which was protected from competition through tariffs. This insulation led to a lack of motivation to improve product quality, resulting in subpar computers that negatively impacted various industries. Ultimately, it's crucial to consider the potential side effects of emotional policies to avoid unintended negative consequences.

• Emotional economic arguments and unintended consequences: Emotional economic arguments can have unintended consequences, such as discouraging hiring or hoarding resources. Considering incentives and side effects is crucial when crafting economic policies. Tax cuts can stimulate the economy by increasing disposable income, as shown by Reagan's reforms.

  Emotional economic arguments, like the one surrounding Obamacare's 50 employer threshold, can create more problems than they solve. This was evident when the threshold led to companies not hiring additional employees due to the financial implications. It's crucial to consider the incentives and side effects of economic policies. On a related note, ensuring emergency supplies, like the food offered by My Patriot Supply, provides peace of mind and makes both economic and psychological sense. Lastly, Reagan's monstrous tax reform in the 1980s, which led to significant economic growth, proved that tax cuts can stimulate the economy when people have more disposable income. Despite ongoing debates, it's essential to remember the positive impact tax cuts can have on various income levels.

• Misconceptions about Reagan's Economic Policies: During Reagan's presidency, income gains for the bottom and top 20% were similar, debunking the myth that conservative policies only benefit the wealthy. The complex reasons behind deficits and debt require accurate understanding for informed discussions.

  The claim that conservative economic policies disproportionately benefit the rich, as often argued by the left, is not supported by the facts during the Reagan years. Contrary to popular belief, the income gains for the bottom and top 20% of earners during Reagan's presidency were roughly equivalent. Additionally, the increase in deficits and debt during this time is often mischaracterized by the left, with the actual reasons being more complex than simply blaming Reagan's tax cuts. These misconceptions persist, but it's crucial to understand the truth behind these claims to engage effectively in political discussions.

• Reagan tax cuts did not cause increased deficits due to decreased tax revenue, but rather increased government spending: Contrary to popular belief, Reagan's tax cuts led to an increase in tax revenue and decreased unemployment, particularly among black Americans, debunking the myth that his policies negatively impacted marginalized communities

  The Reagan tax cuts did not lead to increased deficits due to a decrease in tax revenue, as is often claimed. Instead, it was the result of increased government spending. Additionally, black unemployment significantly decreased during the Reagan years, contradicting the notion that Reagan's policies negatively impacted black America. It's important to fact-check and not fall for misinformation, especially when it comes to economic history. The Reagan administration's tax cuts led to an increase in tax revenue, not a decrease, and the decrease in unemployment among black Americans is a clear indication of the policy's success. These are crucial arguments to keep in mind as the tax reform debate heats up and liberals may attempt to distort the historical record.

• Trump's actions against Russian interests: Trump's opposition to Russian interests is evident through his admission of Montenegro into NATO, focus on exporting LNG to Europe, and military actions against Syria

  The Trump-Russia collusion narrative lacks merit based on several key points. First, Trump's admission of Montenegro into NATO, an organization Putin strongly opposes, is a clear sign of his opposition to Russian interests. Second, the United States' focus on exporting liquefied natural gas to Europe is damaging the Russian economy, which heavily relies on natural gas exports. Lastly, Trump's military actions against Syria, a Russian client state, demonstrate his commitment to opposing Russian interests. These actions, rather than evidence of collusion, show Trump's determination to protect American interests.

• Media sensationalism and misinformation: Media outlets should prioritize accuracy and factual reporting to maintain credibility and trust with their audiences.

  There is a pervasive issue of sensationalizing and spreading misinformation in the media, as evidenced by the CNN tapes where producers were aware of a lack of substance in a story but continued to pursue it. This behavior is harmful and contributes to a culture of distrust towards the media. The speaker expresses frustration with this situation and the potential consequences it could have, such as downplaying serious issues or creating unnecessary alarm. It's important for media outlets to prioritize accuracy and factual reporting to maintain credibility and trust with their audiences.