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    Ep. 621 Government Predictions Gone Horribly Wrong

    enDecember 28, 2017

    Podcast Summary

    • Net Neutrality in the Online Travel IndustryThe internet landscape is evolving, and net neutrality in the online travel industry may not be as straightforward as it once seemed with search engines and content providers buying up search terms and pushing smaller players off the front page

      The concept of net neutrality, which advocates for equal access to the internet for all, is being challenged in the online travel industry. Google, a dominant search engine, is buying up search terms and pushing smaller online travel agencies off the front page, making them pay to regain visibility. This practice is similar to how businesses pay for sponsored ads to appear at the top of search results. Despite the calls for equality in the net neutrality debate, there seems to be no issue raised with this business model when it comes to search engines and content providers. It's a complex issue, but the key takeaway is that the internet landscape is evolving, and the concept of net neutrality may not be as straightforward as it once seemed.

    • Net Neutrality: Misplaced FocusInstead of focusing on ISPs for net neutrality, encourage competition and innovation in the tech industry to counterbalance the power of dominant content providers.

      The focus on net neutrality as a means for government control over the internet is misplaced. The real issue lies with content providers like Facebook, Twitter, and Google, who control the majority of the information we consume online through sponsored ads and algorithms. Instead of worrying about ISPs, we should encourage competition and innovation in the tech industry to counterbalance the power of these dominant players. The rhetoric around net neutrality as a solution to a fictitious problem at the last mile of internet traffic is a distraction from the real issues at hand. It's important to remember that the government is not the answer, and individuals have the power to make a difference by starting up competitors or investing in alternative platforms.

    • Political Targeting of Comcast for RegulationLiberals may choose to regulate Comcast over Facebook due to negative public perception and convenience for control, while individuals should focus on personal preparedness for potential disasters.

      Liberals may target Comcast for regulation instead of Facebook due to the negative perception of cable companies' customer service. Comcast is an easier target for public criticism, making it a more convenient political vehicle for control over the internet, despite the stated goal of regulating last mile providers. Additionally, individuals should prioritize preparing for potential disasters, such as civil disturbances and EMP attacks, to ensure food security. The discussion also touched upon the speaker's experience as a former Secret Service agent and the importance of being prepared.

    • Preparing for Emergencies: Food Supply and Backup PlansConsider having a backup food supply and be wary of relying on predictions from entities with a poor track record.

      It's important to be prepared for emergencies, including having a sufficient food supply. The speaker emphasized the importance of having a backup plan and shared his experience with a company called My Patron Supply that offers a one-month food supply for $99. He also warned against relying on predictions from entities like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) without considering their track record of failure. The speaker used an analogy of betting on a horse expert with a 100% failure rate to illustrate the point. He encouraged listeners to take responsibility for their own preparedness and provided the website PrepareWithDan.com for those interested in the emergency food supply offer.

    • CBO's Predictions for ACA Significantly OffThe CBO's estimates for ACA enrollment and risk corridor payments were significantly inaccurate, leading to a discrepancy of billions of dollars and potential consequences.

      The CBO's predictions regarding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have been significantly off the mark. For instance, they predicted that 21 million people would be enrolled in the exchanges by 2017, but the actual number was only 10 million. Additionally, they predicted that risk corridor payments, which were supposed to result in a net $8 billion surplus for the government, instead resulted in a $5.8 billion deficit. These errors amount to a significant discrepancy, highlighting the CBO's struggles in accurately predicting the impact of the ACA. Despite the CBO's reputation as a reputable institution, these miscalculations have had significant consequences.

    • CBO's Inaccurate PredictionsThe CBO's predictions are unreliable due to flawed assumptions and lack of dynamic analysis, leading to significant discrepancies in budget and debt projections.

      The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has a history of making inaccurate predictions, particularly regarding budget and debt projections. For instance, they underestimated the number of people who would enroll in Medicaid under Obamacare by a factor of 10. Furthermore, they significantly overestimated the national debt reduction in 2012, missing the mark by a factor of nearly 10 as well. The issue lies in the fact that the CBO's predictions are only as good as the assumptions they're given. If these assumptions are flawed or based on static analysis rather than dynamic analysis, the output will be unreliable. Therefore, it's crucial to view the CBO's predictions with a healthy dose of skepticism.

    • The speaker shares his positive experience with Brickhouse Nutrition's creatine ATP blendThe speaker recommends trying Brickhouse Nutrition's creatine ATP blend, 'Foundation,' for potential gym performance and appearance improvements. He also emphasizes the importance of critically evaluating media sources for accurate information.

      The speaker had an impressive experience with Brickhouse Nutrition's creatine ATP blend, called "Foundation," and believes it significantly improved his gym performance and appearance. He suggests trying it with the company's seven-day mirror test. The speaker also discussed his concerns about misinformation regarding the tax cuts in the media, specifically mentioning an article by Alan Blinder in the Wall Street Journal. He expressed frustration with Blinder's perspective and urged listeners to critically evaluate the information they consume.

    • Democratic opposition led to tax cuts' expirationDespite Republican desire for permanence, Democratic opposition caused certain tax cuts to expire, and concerns about deficits from tax cuts are often unfounded.

      The expiration of certain tax cuts is not a result of their inherent nature, but rather due to the fact that no Democrats voted for their permanence during the initial legislation. The Republican desire for permanence was thwarted by Democratic opposition, leading to the tax cuts' eventual expiration. The deficit concerns raised about the tax cuts are also baseless, as history has shown that tax cuts do not consistently lead to decreased government revenues. The concept of "trickle-down" economics, often criticized by Democrats, is also a misnomer and does not exist as an econometric theory. Instead, it is a political slur used to discredit conservative economic principles.

    • Inconsistencies in Political CriticismThe author criticizes recent tax bill inconsistently and lacks logical argument, while the claim of 13 million losing health coverage is a myth. The importance of Trump's court appointments is emphasized.

      The author's criticism of the recent tax bill lacks consistency and logic, as he previously had no issue with Democrats passing Obamacare without Republican support. Additionally, the claim that 13 million Americans will lose their health coverage if they are no longer penalized for not having it is a myth. The author urges listeners to subscribe to his email list for conservative news and highlights the importance of Trump's court appointments. Despite the Democrats' frequent claims that people will die due to various policies, the author expresses confusion about what exactly they are referring to. Overall, the author's commentary highlights the inconsistencies and hyperbole in political discourse.

    • Preserving the balance of power in governmentLiberals believe judges can override the will of the people, leading to fake judges and the need for more conservative appointments. Trump's record number of appointments at the appellate court level is crucial for influencing thousands of cases each year. Vote to maintain Senate control to ensure the confirmation process continues.

      The Constitution was intended to establish three equal branches of government, not one that overrides the others. However, some liberals believe the judicial branch has the power to override the will of the people. This issue has led to a significant number of fake judges being appointed, who disregard the constitution and legislate from the bench. President Trump has made a significant impact by appointing a record number of conservative judges at the appellate court level, where the majority of cases are heard. These appointments are crucial as they have the power to influence thousands of cases each year. In the upcoming year, it's essential to retain the Senate to ensure the confirmation process continues smoothly and more conservative judges can be appointed. If the Democrats take control of the Senate, they will slow down the process, potentially grinding it to a halt, preventing any further appointments. Therefore, it's crucial to stay active and vote to maintain the Senate's control.

    • One in five federal employees make six figure salariesHalf a million federal employees earn over $100,000, which is more than the average American salary, raising questions about necessary spending and accountability.

      The number of federal government employees making six figure salaries is staggeringly high, with over 400,000 employees falling into this category. This represents one in every five federal employees, and the average American salary being only $44,000. The speaker, who has worked for the federal government, acknowledges the need for well-trained and skilled personnel in areas like law enforcement and national security. However, they question whether every bureaucrat needs to make such high salaries, especially during a budget crisis. Additionally, a significant number of Americans (nearly 44%) believe that the media is fabricating news. These issues highlight the importance of accountability and transparency in government and media.

    • Media bias towards liberal agendas and lack of positive coverage towards RepublicansOnly 5% of Trump's coverage during his presidency was positive despite media's dislike, leading to a loss of trust in media and a concern for democracy.

      The current state of media, with a disproportionate amount of negative coverage towards certain political figures, is causing a loss of trust and faith from the public. According to Dan Bongino, the media's bias towards liberal agendas and the lack of positive coverage towards Republicans, such as former President Donald Trump, is a serious issue that needs addressing. In fact, only 5% of Trump's coverage during his presidency was positive, despite the media's dislike or "beef" with him not justifying such a skewed representation. This trend is problematic as it goes against the journalistic principles of impartiality and objectivity, and instead, media has become a religion rather than a source of truthful information. This lack of trust in media is a concern for democracy and the public's ability to make informed decisions. It's important for media to prioritize journalistic integrity and avoid being influenced by political agendas to regain the trust of the American people.

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