Ep.96: NATO, Post-Trump Stress Disorder, Breton, Rutte vs Kallas

Frontex, the EU border and coast guard, is the bloc's best funded agency costing upwards of a billion euros a year. There are plans for a standing corps of 10,000 uniformed personnel this decade. But something is badly amiss. Migrants keep drowning in large numbers under Frontex's watch. That includes what is thought to be the worst disaster of its kind when the fishing vessel Adriana capsized in June last year in Greek waters with some 750 people aboard. An estimated 600 people perished in that catastrophe. In response, the European Ombudsman, Emily O'Reilly, looked under the hood at Frontex and at its relations with national coast guards. She found an institution that calls itself a border and coast guard but that lacks the power to carry out some of the basic duties that come with such an important job. Frontex must check with national authorities like the Hellenic Coast Guard before rescues and even before conducting additional surveillance. As for issuing emergency Mayday alerts — something Frontex can do — the agency still has no set protocol. You might say that weaker-than-advertised EU institutions are a reality of a European project where member states are reluctant to cede sovereignty. But in the case of Frontex the results are so lethal and inhumane that EU claims to uphold fundamental rights are undermined on a daily basis. In this episode Emily describes her inquiry into the Adriana and lays out her recommendations for fixing some of what ails Frontex. Emily also discusses the move by France to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution. She does so from the perspective of a former journalist who wrote about reproductive rights in Ireland in the 1980s and 90s, including in her book Masterminds of the Right. 

The world is growing more violent. Worst affected countries include Myanmar, Syria and Mexico as well as those experiencing more obvious crises like Gaza and Ukraine. That's according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project or ACLED. But there's also growing concern about more developed countries with longer established democratic traditions like the United States. In this episode ACLED chief of external affairs Hugh Pope talks about how data can give a uniquely accurate and new perspective on unfolding events and help anticipate where conflicts will worsen and where peace building efforts should be targeted. "One of the reasons that people miss what they think are unexpected ‘black swans’ is they weren't watching the data," says Hugh, who notes that current ACLED early warning data show conflict in countries including Lebanon and Sudan at alarming levels. Among other recent findings: the upsurge in conflict in West Bank Palestinian territories last summer that may have presaged the attack by Hamas in October; and how peaceful Black Lives Matters protests were in the United States in 2000 relative to the gatherings involving armed militias. Among European findings: and the very high number of protests by German farmers in January compared to neighbouring countries like France. That suggests the potential for German farmers to mobilise again — especially if cost-of-living issues continue to bite and the far-right Alternative for Germany takes advantage of the movement. Hugh also recalls his warnings against the rush to war in Iraq in the early 2000s when he was a correspondent for The Wall Street Journal — and when he discovered how an astrologer's guidance could prove more compelling than his own reporting. There is a strong case, says Hugh, for promoting "data for a more peaceful world."

Markus Becker of Der Spiegel describes a developing situation in Germany where the popularity of the far-right AfD party has surged over the past year. Revelations that members of the AfD discussed deportations of non-assimilated people and of those with non-German backgrounds has prompted a huge backlash including mass demonstrations. The AfD has created further headaches for itself by calling for a so-called Dexit, or an exit from the European Union. Markus says that's likely to turn off large swathes of voters in a country where industry and exports underpin prosperity. Markus also discusses his powerful editorial laying out how to fortify Germany's constitution in the event that the AfD acts to dismantle democracy in future. In our news review we assess Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's threat to veto EU aid for Ukraine a second time. Orbán quickly dropped that idea after finding himself effectively isolated in the European Council facing threats serious enough to impact his grip on power. But Orbán was active on other fronts in Brussels. He met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and reportedly deepened his Fidesz party's ties with her Brothers of Italy. Orbán also filmed himself among ranks of tractors showing support for a large and unruly protest by farmers. Shortly afterwards the farmers tore down a 19th century statue in a square opposite the European Parliament. The monument, to a steel mechanic, was left cracked and partly melted by fires. Amid the disorder Europe's leaders were quick to offer further concessions — just the latest sign of the grossly disproportionate power farmers exercise in Europe.

Terry Reintke unhesitatingly describes some EU lawmakers with anti-European and far-right views as fascists. Her directness stands in sharp contrast to bland circumlocutions more common to Brussels. Now Terry, a German who co-heads the Greens in the European Parliament, wants the chamber to launch an inquiry into whether its extreme right Identity and Democracy Group, or ID Group, adheres to European values. That inquiry, she says, should run in parallel to efforts in Germany to determine whether to ban one of the ID Group's main members, the Alternative for Germany or AfD. Terry made her proposal on Thursday, on the same day Marine Le Pen sought to put some distance between her far-right Rassemblement National and the ID Group. Terry's proposal and Le Pen's jitters come against the backdrop of mass demonstrations in Germany against the AfD. The demonstrations were prompted by a report that AfD members discussed deportations of non-assimilated people and of those with non-German backgrounds in what amounted to a disturbing echo of Nazi-era practices. The EU-level inquiry proposed by Terry would be based on Article 2 of the EU treaty. Any findings leading to restrictions or a ban on the ID Group would need to stand up in court, says Terry, who is widely expected to be a lead candidate in upcoming European elections. Also in this conversation: Terry discusses the basis of her antifascism; her vulnerability as a highly visible lesbian politician; how to manage conflicting priorities between Berlin and Brussels; and the divide with the US Green party over Ukraine.

The prospect of a wider conflict with Russia under a scenario where Donald Trump is back in the White House has spooked Europe. Thierry Breton, a European commissioner, is among those sounding the alarm. This month Breton made headlines by recalling how Trump said NATO was dead and the United States would never come to Europe's rescue. The journalist talking to Breton when he made those remarks is Teri Schultz. Teri has focused on European security for three decades, and her reports for National Public Radio and Deutsche Welle are often the first and last word on NATO and defence. In this episode, Teri discusses her exchange with Breton as well as key moments when Trump shook NATO to its core. Teri also reviews the announcement that NATO will hold its largest military exercise for decades. And she assesses her own readiness to follow NATO Military Committee chief Rob Bauer's advice to stock up on a flashlight, a radio, batteries, and water. Such items, says Bauer, are needed to survive the first 36 hours of a conflict of the kind that Swedish officials have been warning citizens about. "It's not a given that we are in peace," Bauer told a news conference. In addition: why Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte is likely to beat Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in the race to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as the next NATO secretary general. 

Mario Draghi is the obvious candidate to be the next president of the European Council. The job involves leading the meetings of EU heads of state and government. And it's wide open since incumbent Charles Michel announced he's quitting. But despite Draghi's notable achievements, including saving the euro and crafting game-changing policies on vaccines and sanctions, "Super Mario" seems unlikely to make the final cut. That's down to the reluctance of EU national leaders to be overshadowed by someone like Draghi who could truly command the world stage, says journalist David Carretta. David has worked with the Italian newspaper Il Foglio and Italian station Radio Radicale for more than two decades, and he's just launched an excellent morning newsletter with colleague Christian Spillman. In this episode, David discusses other runners and riders for the European Council job. He also talks about why the political centre is likely to hold, in one form or other, even if far-right parties make strong gains in the European Parliament elections in June. And then there's the story behind the Acca Laurentia rally in Rome on January 7, the failure of Italy to deal with its past, and how both help to explain the ascent of Giorgia Meloni and her neofascist Brothers of Italy party. Meloni, warns David, could easily revert to being pro-Putin if the war in Ukraine turns in Russia's favour and Donald Trump returns to the White House. Subscribe to David's and Christian's newsletter in Italian or French. 

Jacques Delors passed away this week. He was the longest serving president of the European Commission. But what made Delors such a towering figure was his headlong rush to unify the continent. Monetary union. Free movement. The Single Market. Delors is the preeminent architect of the modern European project. Fast forward three decades and that architecture acutely concerns admirers of Delors. Among them is the well-known liberal lawmaker Sophie in ‘t Veld. Sophie has a lot to say about how the present-day Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen has grown timid in the face of pressures from national governments. Sophie also says those weaknesses have helped extremists like Viktor Orbán tighten their grip on power. In this year-end news review, Sophie talks about von der Leyen's appeasement of Orbán; the mess made by Brussels at the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war; and the dangers Geert Wilders poses for Europe. You may not agree with all of Sophie's views on, well, more Europe. But her experience and passion and eloquence mean her warnings about the dangers of our political moment cannot be ignored. We are, says Sophie, "sleepwalking" into a new era of autocracy and repression. As for Sophie herself, she plans to run for a fifth term as a member of the European Parliament. Her decision has been welcomed by those who robustly support democracy and want more oversight of the EU by elected lawmakers. However, she will run from Belgium, not Holland, and as part of a new pan-European movement called Volt, instead of D66, the party that's long been her home. It's time for a change. Volt, says Sophie, is not as prone to the cliquishness found in some political groups, nor is it beholden to those EU decision-makers that continue to accommodate Europe's autocrats and kleptocrats.

Big Meat had a good year in Europe. Plans to set emission limits for large-scale cattle farms were scrapped. Rules requiring landowners to restore wetlands were mostly gutted. And a keenly anticipated reform of the animal welfare rules was mostly consigned to the deep freeze. Among those promised animal welfare reforms: legislation to End the Cage Age. The idea was that hens, pigs, calves, rabbits, and quail would no longer be reared in conditions that inflict suffering and that underpin industrial farming, which is responsible for large amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollution. The campaign to end cages was the result of a European Citizens Initiative that garnered 1.4 million signatories and was backed by key European commissioners, parliamentarians, and scores of environmental and consumer rights and animal protection advocates. But in her state of the union speech, in September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made no mention of animal welfare, let alone cages. And by October, the European Commission was in full retreat. So, what happened? In this episode: a deep dive into the activities and influence of a group called European Livestock Voice with Andrea Bertaglio, who is a journalist and the group’s campaign manager. Also in this episode: Thin Lei Win, the lead food systems reporter for Lighthouse Reports that oversaw the investigation; Arthur Neslen, a freelance journalist for The Guardian; Silvia Lazzaris, editor at Food Unfolded; and Olga Kikou, the head of Compassion in World Farming in Brussels. “This takes us far beyond animal welfare,” says Olga. “It’s a democracy issue.”

EU industrial policy for silicon chips to space technologies to electric vehicles too often seems to rely on Europeans prevailing in a global race to mine. The phrase "drill, baby, drill" applies as much to metals and minerals as oil and gas these days. But the EU's industry hawks are in denial. This is a race Europe can't ever win. The EU has relatively few metals and minerals of its own and little capacity to process the vast quantities it will require. To make matters worse, the short-term approach risks alienating the partners Europe says it needs for a sustainable energy transition. But the voices questioning the coherence and viability of the EU strategy are easily drowned out — and so that's why we tracked them down for this episode on rethinking the race to mine. MEP Mohammed Chahim says the EU's forthcoming Critical Raw Materials Act should do more to allow supplier countries and regions to get enough value from their resources to industrialise and give people better lives. Diego Marin of the European Environmental Bureau explains why reuse is one of the most important strategies for mitigating demand and reducing the negative social and environmental impacts of mining. Elle Merete Omma of the Saami Council says mining should only be permissible within environmental limits — and only with the full consent of indigenous people like the Sámi. Together they show how misaligned Europe is becoming with parts of the world like Africa, the High North and South America on which it will be relying for supplies in future — and how a more cooperative and mutually beneficial approach is needed with the Global South if Europe wants reliable access to the building blocks of its industrial future. This episode was made in partnership with the Open Society Foundations. 

The problem of X as a source of hate and a threat to democracy is back at the top of the policy agenda. Elon Musk's social media platform circulated a large amount of false information as well as images of extreme violence during the recent terror attack in Israel. A European Commissioner, Thierry Breton, said that content probably was illegal in Europe and threatened X with fines. That standoff is likely to drag on for a while. But there's another European on Musk's case. His name is Imran Ahmed and he's already done much to hold X, and Musk, to account. Imran, who's British, runs a research and advocacy non-profit: The Center for Countering Digital Hate. The Center campaigns to get social media platforms to suspend or remove harmful accounts and stop advertisers spending money at sites spreading harmful content. And whereas Musk has kept his exchanges with Breton cordial, Musk has treated Imran like, well, vermin. The tension between Musk and Imran began after the Centre published its Toxic Twitter report in February. That report said that Musk had allowed large numbers of bad actors — Neo-Nazis, white supremacists, misogynists and conspiracists — back onto the platform with the goal of getting more eyeballs and advertising dollars. Now X is suing Imran's Center for losses amounting to tens of millions of dollars in advertising and other costs. How X's lawsuit in a California court pans out remains to be seen. But the discomfort Imran has already inflicted on Musk shows that David still can take on Goliath. And Imran's approach also holds lessons for regulators, like Mr. Breton, for the battles ahead. By way of disclosure: a board member at EU Scream also serves as a member of the board of the Center for Countering Digital Hate.