John Tavares hits 1000 points vs the Islanders. After 30 games, what teams are overachieving and which are underachieving? We do a bit of a statistical evaluation to predict the rest of the season. Team of the Week is the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Title Player: Harry Watson - connect to John Tavares
News:
1. Tavares gets 1000th pt vs Islanders
Leafs continue to go to OT - 27 GP - 15-6-6 / 13 OT games - 7-6
2nd in division despite injuries
Matthews at 23 G - on pace for 70G
2. Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks - no suspension for Strome?
https://youtu.be/TPZow5phhEA?feature=shared
3. 2 investigations into Wild front office
AGM Chris O’Hearn fired or “agreed to part ways”
Was Guerin’s right hand man
Something is afoot but everyone is very quiet
4. Rob Ray takes puck to face between the benches -
https://youtu.be/E3z40vmKm5s?feature=shared
5. Oilers finally lose a game - need help for Skinner
Outshot Lighting 57-24 and lost 7-4
Lost 5-1 to Panthers
6. All Star Game - back to skills
8 skills - 12 players compete for $1MM prize
Guess the 5th
Who is for real and who is not?
Method - xGF% - GF% - per Naturalstattrick.com at 5v5
Top 5 Pretenders
- Vancouver - 48.7-61.2
- Winnipeg - 49.6 - 59.4
- Detroit - 46.8-55.8
- Boston - 50.1-56.9
- Arizona - 47.2-51.8
Top 5 Underachievers - xGF%-GF% -
- Oilers - 58.0 - 47.4
- New Jersey 53.3-46.09
- Calgary - 51.9 - 45.5
- Carolina - 55.7-50.4
- Seattle - 51.3-47.1
** San Jose and Anaheim have large difference but xGF is still well below 50% so wouldn’t expect much improvement
Team of the Week
Tampa Bay - xGF% 48.98 - 44.78
Should expect some improvement, but not good enough
SF% 48.37 (21) GF% 44.78% (29) xGF% 48.97 (19) SV% 90.24 (26) SH% 8.45 (15)
Vasilevskiy .902 after injury - expect that to improve
Kucherov - 50pts, 1st in league
Depth?
Hagel-Point-Kucherov - most TOI - dominant stats 62% GF
Anyone plays with Kucherov - stats are over 50%
Without, almost everyone below.
BucPower - turnovers like crazy - via Statmuse.com TBL are 9th in league in GVA with 250
League leaders- CHI, MTL, EDM, NSH, TOR
Kucherov leads league with 41. (Draisaitl next with 37)
D Pairs
Hedman / Perbix - 231:58 - xGF 41% GF% 52
Cernak / Sergachaev - 218:15 - xGF 47.9% GF% 42
Raddysh / Sergachaev - 217:36 xGF 55.6 GF 20%
Of all regular 6 D, Hedman is only one with +50% GF
Summary - I think depth is the story. Kucherov is pushing the river but supporting cast is weak
Need Vasilievskiy to save them
Hot / Not
Atlantic - TOR 5-1-4 / OTT 3-7-0 - 4 teams with 5 wins
Metro - NYI 6-1-3 / CBJ 4-5-1 - (NJD 7-3-0 )
Centroal - NSH 7-3-0 / CHI 3-6-1 -
Pacific - EDM 8-2-0 / ANA 1-9-0 - (Van 7-3-0, SJS 6-3-1)
Crazy Stat
DOPeS - Perron 6 games suspension for cross checking Zub
NHLPA Appealing - will they go to an arbitrator?
Gudbranson 1 Game -https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/player-safety/erik-gudbranson-suspended-one-game-for-actions-in-blue-jackets-game
Should hit by cousens on Gudbranson have been a suspension?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfShpOFYqZs
Pastrnak kicked out of game vs Rangers for similar hit