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    Following Buffett, Bull vs. Bear: Etsy

    enDecember 22, 2022
    What are the potential downsides of following Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filings?
    Why might passive investing be recommended over active stock picking?
    What criticisms have been directed at Etsy's management team?
    How do Berkshire Hathaway's B shares differ from A shares?
    What factors should be considered before making investment decisions?

    Podcast Summary

    • Inefficiency of following Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filings for individual investorsWhile potentially profitable, actively mimicking Berkshire Hathaway's investments may not be practical for individual investors due to time and effort required, and past performance doesn't guarantee future success. Consider simpler, passive investment methods like index funds or ETFs.

      While following Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filings and investing in similar percentages of their top twenty investments could potentially yield good returns, it may not be the most efficient or practical approach for individual investors. This strategy could be time-consuming and may require consistent effort and attention to rebalance investments quarterly. Instead, investors might consider simpler, more passive methods such as investing in a low-cost index fund or ETF that tracks the overall market or Berkshire Hathaway's stock directly. Additionally, it's important to remember that even successful investors like Warren Buffett cannot guarantee consistent returns, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore, it's crucial to do thorough research, consider personal financial goals and risk tolerance, and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

    • Simpler and Effective Way to Invest in Berkshire HathawayInvesting in Berkshire Hathaway's B shares offers easier access to its extensive portfolio and operational businesses, with the same benefits as A shares, and less work required to keep track of changes.

      Investing in Berkshire Hathaway's B shares is a simpler and more effective way to gain exposure to the company's extensive portfolio of investments and operational businesses, rather than attempting to replicate Buffett's 13F filings. Buffett himself has suggested this approach due to the significant work required to keep track of changes in the filings. The B shares, which are less expensive than A shares, provide investors with ownership in the same company and access to the same benefits, including a stake in businesses like Geico, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and Kraft Heinz, among others. These operational businesses have contributed significantly to Berkshire Hathaway's overall performance throughout the years.

    • Consider Berkshire Hathaway as a Core InvestmentBuffett's long-term investment approach in Berkshire Hathaway, despite occasional mistakes, has generally paid off. Berkshire's diverse holdings offer insight into Buffett's investment philosophy.

      Investing in Berkshire Hathaway, whether through A or B shares, can be a strong foundation for a well-diversified portfolio. Buffett himself has acknowledged making mistakes in his investments over the years, but his long-term approach has generally paid off. However, it's important to note that the prices at which Berkshire makes its purchases are not publicly disclosed, meaning investors may not get the exact same price. Therefore, owning Berkshire Hathaway, whether through A or B shares, is a worthwhile core investment for most portfolios. Another key point from the discussion is that Buffett has made significant investments in companies that have not always performed well, such as IBM and the major US airlines. However, it's unclear whether he sold these holdings out of fear or to avoid negative publicity. Regardless, Buffett's approach to investing involves holding onto stocks for the long term, and Berkshire Hathaway's holdings provide insight into his investment philosophy. Overall, Donna's suggestion to consider Berkshire Hathaway as a core investment is a sound one, and the discussion highlighted the importance of understanding Buffett's investment approach and the potential benefits and limitations of owning Berkshire Hathaway shares.

    • Etsy's Growing Customer Base and Tripled Revenue Make it an Attractive Investment OpportunityEtsy's unique focus on handmade and vintage goods, large customer base, and revenue growth make it an attractive investment opportunity during the holiday season. Repeat buyers and ticket size are increasing, despite a rough year for the stock.

      Etsy's unique focus on handmade and vintage goods, as well as its large and growing customer base, make it an attractive investment opportunity, especially during the holiday season. The company's revenue has tripled since 2019, and it now counts 88 million people who have purchased items on the site in the last 12 months. Repeat purchase behavior is strong, with repeat buyers up 49% from 2019 and habitual buyers up 5.8 million. Additionally, the average ticket size is increasing. While the stock has had a rough year, the pandemic-driven growth and adoption cycle have set Etsy up for long-term success.

    • Etsy's Growth Potential and ChallengesEtsy aims to expand tools for shoppers, increase take rate, explore new monetization opportunities, and grow revenue to eBay's scale. Challenges include better seller support, curation, and competition. Unique focus on human connection and convenience make it an attractive option.

      Etsy, an e-commerce platform known for personalized and handmade items, has significant growth potential. The company is expanding its tools for shoppers, increasing its take rate, and exploring new monetization opportunities. With a proven track record of profitability, Etsy aims to grow its revenue to reach the scale of eBay. However, challenges remain, including the need for better seller support and curation, as well as competition from other platforms. Despite these issues, Etsy's unique focus on human connection and the convenience it offers for buyers make it an attractive option for shoppers and sellers alike. While the next few years may bring some bumps in the road, the company's reasonable valuation and potential for expansion make it an intriguing investment opportunity.

    • Etsy's expensive acquisitions and capital allocation strategies under scrutinyCritics question Etsy's capital allocation, with concerns over negative shareholder equity from acquisitions, economic headwinds, high price to sales ratio, and heavy stock-based compensation spending, without insider buying

      Etsy's management team has faced criticism for their capital allocation strategies, specifically regarding expensive acquisitions that have resulted in negative shareholder equity. The company's recent write-downs of these acquisitions, combined with the negative impact of economic headwinds, have raised concerns for long-term shareholders. Additionally, Etsy's high price to sales ratio and heavy spending on stock-based compensation, without significant insider buying, suggest that the company may not be investing in the business as prudently as it could. Overall, the bear case argues that Etsy is an expensive pandemic play with a management team that has yet to learn from past mistakes.

    • A Christmas Eve treat: Bowl versus Quick episodeListen for holiday entertainment, but don't base investment decisions on the show's content

      There's an opportunity to win an exciting prize by tuning in to the Bowl versus Quick programming note on Christmas Eve. However, it's important to remember that the people on the program may have personal interests in the stocks they discuss, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations. Therefore, listeners should not make investment decisions based solely on the information shared during the episode. The episode itself is described as an "apropos of nothing" one, intended to help listeners get through their last-minute shopping and travels during the holiday season. Chris Hill signs off, reminding everyone to listen tomorrow and enjoy some music from Keb Mo. in the meantime.

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