Galloway Wins In Rochdale, China Economy & Sticky Inflation

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) President Joe Biden stumbled through exchanges in Thursday's presidential debate, a performance that risks exacerbating concerns about his age and intensifying Democratic worries about their candidate's ability to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November's election.

(2) The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the US is running deficits that are too big and is weighed down by too much debt, and it warned of dangers from increasingly aggressive trade policies.

(3)  European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc's executive arm, as part of an agreement on top jobs for the next five-year mandate. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being “out of touch” with voters as the Labour leader promised to fix Britain’s stagnant economy and ailing public services, and the prime minister used the final televised debate to attack his poll-leading rival on taxes ahead of next week’s election.

(2) Finance chieftains are once again looking to invest in London as political turmoil in France and the US make the UK look more competitive on the global stage, according to the chief executive officer of a top London lobbying group.

(3) Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be ready to build a new coalition that could govern if elections deliver a hung parliament as a leftist bloc he’s joined struggles to paper over internal divisions.

(4)European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate.

(5) The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Leaders of France’s three biggest political groups clashed in their first televised debate on everything from retirement and taxes to immigration as they sought to convince voters that they can be trusted to run Europe’s second-biggest economy.

(2) Keir Starmer, who polls show is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, said his Labour Party would target economic growth of at least 2.5% if it came to power at the July 4 general election.

(3) Italy will be offered the chance to fill a senior role in the next European Commission as centrist parties look to wrap up a deal on the bloc’s top jobs before a summit later this week.

(4) Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress in 2025.

(5) Rivian Automotive will get a much-needed cash infusion through a new partnership with Volkswagen AG as automakers large and small rethink their strategies in a slowing electric-vehicle market. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, as an ongoing selloff erased a historic amount of value for the AI-focused chipmaker.

(2) The Federal Reserve has shown other US regulators a three-page document of possible changes to their bank-capital overhaul that would significantly lighten the load on Wall Street lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. 

(3) Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange will plead guilty to leaking US national security secrets and return to his home country of Australia, under a deal with the Justice Department that ends an almost 15-year battle over his prosecution.

(4) President Emmanuel Macron said the agendas of the far-right and far-left blocs in France’s upcoming legislative elections pit the country’s people against each other, going so far as to say that “extreme” parties could spark a “civil war.”

(5) Britain’s housing crisis has become so acute that the next government will need to build the equivalent of another city the size of London to make up for five decades of below-target construction, analysis of official data shows.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:

(1) Rishi Sunak's chances of avoiding a landslide defeat in the UK general election dwindled further as his governing Conservative Party struggled to contain revelations that several of the prime minister's close aides placed bets on the date of the vote.

(2) Emmanuel Macron again sought to explain his decision to dissolve parliament, saying he aimed to take into account the defeat his party suffered in European elections and to avoid an even greater risk of turmoil to come.

(3) China and the European Union agreed to start talks on the bloc's plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation. 

(4) US prosecutors have recommended to senior Justice Department officials that Boeing Co. face criminal charges for violating a settlement related to two fatal crashes, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter it didn't identify.

(5) The so-called Ozempic Revolution has wiped billions off the market value of food and drink companies. But new weight-loss drugs are giving a boost to at least one line of products that have sometimes previously faced sluggish demand: yogurt.  

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP, PCE data.
• In the UK – a look ahead to Iran’s Presidential election.
• In Asia – a discussion on the first 2024 U.S Presidential debate and how the U.S-China relationship will gain attention.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) French President Emmanuel Macron spent much of his tenure persuading bankers and fund managers to flock to Paris after Brexit. His decision to call snap elections may give some in the industry pause.

(2) German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of the country’s 16 federal states discussed plans to outsource asylum procedures to a third country, inspired by similar initiatives in the UK and Italy.

(3) As the cheap-money era fades into history, the world’s biggest real-estate investor Blackstone is moving into riskier new terrain in the hunt for stellar returns. 

(4) The Bank of England breathed fresh life into hopes for an imminent cut in interest rates, hinting that more of its officials may be close to backing a pivot away from the highest borrowing costs in 16 years. UK consumer confidence improved for a third consecutive month to the strongest level in 2 and 1/2 years, reflecting a rosier economic outlook ahead of the general election.

(5) Keir Starmer is preparing a blitz of planning reforms if his Labour Party wins the UK election next month, aimed at immediately boosting housebuilding in Britain as he seeks to deliver 1.5 million homes over five years.

(6) A pair of large bets in the fed funds futures market are attracting attention on Wall Street by setting aside the market-implied consensus for the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) This may be one meeting where the Bank of England is thankful the decision has been made for them. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s move three weeks ago to call an election has all but ruled out a rate cut when policymakers announce their decision at 12 p.m London time.

(2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is heading for an electoral wipeout in the UK general election on July 4, according to three major polls on Wednesday, including one that projected even the premier will lose his seat.

(3) Amid a brutal hiring war, Steve Cohen’s Point72, Ken Griffin’s Citadel and other giant hedge funds are going in a radical new direction: Training schemes for in-house superstars.

(4) The head of France’s Medef business lobby criticized the campaign programs of both the far right and an alliance of leftist parties, saying they are a danger to the economy.

(5) Citigroup said artificial intelligence is likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than in any other sector as the technology is poised to upend consumer finance and makes workers more productive.

(6) As in past disputes, China looks to be readying a series of actions to punish the European Union for its proposed tariffs on electric cars. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Nvidia’s relentless rally has propelled the semiconductor giant’s market capitalization over its mega-cap tech peers, helping it clinch the title of the world’s most-valuable company as the artificial intelligence wave continues.

(2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on track to lose more than two thirds of the seats they won at the last general election when Britons cast their votes next month, according to the latest seat-by-seat analysis pointing to an electoral wipe-out for the prime minister’s party.

(3) Some UK private schools say they’ll have to cut bursary programs that help low-income families should the party follow through on charging schools a value-added tax.

(4) France and Italy will be among seven countries that will face a European Union infringement procedure for their excessive deficits last year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

(5) National Rally leader Jordan Bardella said he will not become prime minister if his party doesn’t get a resounding victory in France’s snap election, setting a high bar for the far right to take the reins of policymaking.

(6) Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for his first visit to North Korea in 24 years as the US warned the meeting could further arms transfers from Kim Jong Un’s regime that aid the Kremlin in its assault on Ukraine. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) France’s political turmoil is causing concern in some European Union capitals that initiatives like joint military spending and a fresh push to support Ukraine could fall by the wayside.

(2) European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said officials are being “attentive” to financial market-developments, shortly after her colleague Philip Lane said he’s not worried about French turbulence.

(3) Nickel is pouring into the electric vehicle supply chain from an Indonesian industrial park with a history of fatal accidents.

(4) Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea and Vietnam in rare trips to long-time partners as he faces renewed challenges in his war on Ukraine.

(5) Banks and asset managers including HSBC Holdings and BlackRock are helping finalize proposals for UK housing and energy policy that could form key planks of the Labour Party’s growth agenda if it wins next month’s general election.

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As crushing Western sanctions take their toll on Russia and the global economy, Jamil Anderlini, Stefan Kornelius, and Nahal Toosi join World Review with Ivo Daalder to cover the latest headlines. They unpack public pressure to increase support for Ukraine, Germany’s stark foreign policy shifts, what China's learning from Russia, and why we could be watching the end of globalization as we've known it in our lifetimes.

Prefer to watch the show instead? Visit www.thechicagocouncil.org/

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Chinese President Xi Jinping opens the Communist Party National Congress, hailing the nation’s battle against Covid while looking to secure a historic third term. Asian markets start in the red following a volatile week which saw the Dow drop 400 points. In the UK, new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt distances himself from his predecessor’s policies, causing the pound to surge. Meanwhile calls for Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign grow. IIF chair Axel Weber warns of a growing gap between monetary tightening and looser fiscal policy. We hear from Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius who says China will remain the car maker’s biggest market but voices concerns that future growth will be vulnerable to geo-politics and supply chain constraints.  

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President Joe Biden slams Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision not to attend the Cop26 climate summit and says that no date has yet been set for the pair to meet. We hear from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who says that the private sector risks ‘massive market arbitrage’ should it not catch up with public sector action on climate change. The Fed inches closer to tapering as markets hold at fresh highs. UBS chairman Axel Weber tells CNBC he’s not concerned about central banks taking action to anchor inflation expectations. Meanwhile, China’s services sector shrugs off inflationary pressures to grow in October off the back of rebounding demand. And in tech news, Facebook scraps its facial recognition system and also deletes a billion users’ online data.  

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China’s economy remains one of the fastest growing in the world, despite a pronounced slowdown in recent years. Exactly how fast is it growing? What are the long-term implications for investors? We explore these questions and others with Capital Group’s most experienced China-watchers, economist Stephen Green and China affairs specialist Andrew Dougherty.

Listen and learn:

• How quickly is China moving to a consumption-based economy?
• What’s the outlook for trade relations between China and the U.S.?
• What’s more dangerous on the streets of Shanghai — a speeding Ferrari or a melon truck?

Your host, Matt Miller, is the policy and communications advisor for Capital Group. An author and former Washington Post columnist, Matt was previously co-host of the public radio program Left, Right & Center.

Related: Where Is China’s Economy Headed in 2017?

Do you have any topics for Capital Ideas? Please contact our editorial team at CapitalIdeas@capgroup.com.

Today's Headlines

• Conflict in Myanmar surges following new EU sanctions
• Political opponents call for more protests in Kenya
• New Bible study developed for oral cultures