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    Germany leads the world... to financial Armageddon and other stories

    enSeptember 30, 2016

    Podcast Summary

    • Saving Money: Unusual WaysExplore unconventional methods like setting up hard-to-reach savings accounts or following supermarket discounts to save money.

      Individuals can save money in unusual ways, such as setting up a difficult-to-access savings account or following discounts around supermarkets. The discussion on the podcast also touched upon the economic uncertainty surrounding Deutsche Bank and the potential impact on the wider economy, as well as the UK's ambition to be a leading economic power and the government's crackdown on cyber criminals. Simon shared an anecdote about saving money by setting up a difficult-to-access savings account with Tesco Bank, while Lee suggested following discounts around supermarkets and complaining to save money. These unconventional methods, though not applicable to everyone, demonstrate the importance of being resourceful and proactive when it comes to managing personal finances.

    • Mindful shopping saves moneyAvoiding unnecessary purchases in stores and online can help individuals save money. The financial system has become more stable since the 2008 crisis, reducing the risk of financial instability for investors.

      Avoiding unnecessary shopping can help save money. The speaker mentions his dislike for shopping and his strategy of buying only what he needs in physical stores. He also mentions his disinterest in buying and returning clothes online, which is a popular trend. By not buying much stuff, the speaker is able to save money. In the news segment, there is a discussion about the potential trouble at Deutsche Bank and comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis. However, the experts agree that the situations are not entirely similar. The reforms implemented since 2008 have made the financial system more resilient and the derivatives market less of a risk. While there may be consequences for Deutsche Bank shareholders and bondholders, the bank itself is unlikely to go under. So, in short, avoiding shopping and being mindful of financial investments can help individuals save money, while the financial system has become more stable since the 2008 crisis.

    • Deutsche Bank's Challenging Past and Current Financial StrengthDespite past fines and losses, Deutsche Bank's $35 trillion complex derivatives portfolio raises concerns about potential risks and unclear benefits to economy and stakeholders

      Deutsche Bank's current financial strength should be viewed in the context of its challenging past two decades, which includes a massive fine from the U.S. Department of Justice and significant losses. Despite weathering the financial crisis, the bank's huge portfolio of complex high risk derivatives, worth over $35 trillion, raises concerns about potential risks and the value these trades bring to the economy. The banking industry's complex financial dealings make it difficult to assess the actual impact on shareholders and individuals. The fine, which is almost all of Deutsche Bank's worth, is just one example of the risks and uncertainty that come with these mega banks.

    • Deutsche Bank's Financial Instability and Potential Impact on European BanksThe potential collapse of Deutsche Bank, with its £35 trillion in complex derivatives, could have significant repercussions for European banks still recovering from the financial crisis. The bailout game has changed since 2008, with investors and savers potentially taking losses if banks are bailed in.

      The potential financial instability surrounding Deutsche Bank and its complex derivatives, estimated to be around £35 trillion, has raised concerns about the potential impact on other banks, particularly those in Europe still recovering from the financial crisis. The comparison being drawn is to Lehman Brothers, which was allowed to go bankrupt in 2008, leading to a financial meltdown. However, Deutsche Bank is not expected to be allowed to go bankrupt due to the political implications for the German government. The bailout game has changed since the financial crisis, with the European Central Bank introducing a bank bail-in mechanism to protect taxpayers. However, this could result in ordinary investors and savers who have bought bank bonds taking a hit if these banks were to be bailed in. Italy, in particular, has its own banking issues and wants to avoid this outcome for fear of the economic consequences for its people.

    • Deutsche Bank's Financial Instability and Potential Global CrisisDespite progress since 2008 crisis, potential Deutsche Bank failure could trigger another global financial crisis, causing uncertainty and potential bank instability.

      The financial instability of Deutsche Bank, which was once seen as a model for the European Central Bank's financial regulations, has raised concerns about the potential for another global financial crisis. The Italian government's desire to bail out its banks contradicts the ECB and German government's stance against such actions, creating a politically charged situation. Deutsche Bank's share price has plummeted due to fears of a potential fine, causing investors to sell their shares. However, there is a possibility that hedge funds may buy up the shares if they believe the bank will not be allowed to go bankrupt. The financial system's liquidity and the uncertainty surrounding Deutsche Bank's situation make it difficult to determine the safety of any bank. Despite the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis, such as banks holding larger cushions against losses and regulations cracking down on risky lending practices, there is still a possibility that another crisis could occur. It is crucial to remain vigilant and hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

    • UK's global competitiveness under threat due to BrexitThe UK's global competitiveness ranking could decrease due to Brexit uncertainty and potential economic shocks, but foreign trade secretary Liam Fox remains optimistic about the UK's future role in free trade.

      The UK economy has improved and is now the 7th most competitive in the world according to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report. However, this ranking could be under threat due to the decision to leave the European Union and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations. The Bank of England has also suggested that more monetary stimulus may be needed due to potential economic shocks. Despite these challenges, foreign trade secretary Liam Fox remains optimistic about the UK's future role as a world leader in free trade. The report also highlighted Switzerland as the most technologically prepared country and the top dog in global competitiveness. However, the UK's ranking could potentially decrease if Brexit negotiations do not go as planned. The survey was conducted before the Brexit vote, so the actual impact on the UK's competitiveness is yet to be seen.

    • Uncertainty surrounds the UK's post-Brexit economyExperts debate stimulus vs. improved competitiveness, Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme ends, and Brexit's impact on the UK economy remains uncertain

      The UK economy's post-Brexit future remains uncertain, with some experts advocating for more fiscal and monetary stimulus, while others argue that the UK's departure from the European Union could improve competitiveness. The Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, which aimed to help young people buy homes by providing a government guarantee to lenders, is being dropped due to concerns it may have pushed up house prices. The scheme, which will close to new loans at the end of the year, was particularly favored by former Prime Minister David Cameron. The Help to Buy ISA, a savings account with a government bonus, is a separate initiative. Overall, the economic outlook for the UK is uncertain, with conflicting opinions on the impact of Brexit and the effectiveness of various economic policies.

    • Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme being scrappedGovernment's mortgage guarantee scheme, designed to boost low deposit mortgages, is ending due to rising house prices and market saturation, while the equity loan scheme for new builds continues.

      The Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, which enabled lenders to issue more low deposit mortgages with the government underwriting a portion of the loan, is being scrapped. This scheme, introduced in 2013, was intended to help first-time buyers, but some experts argue it only worsened the housing crisis by pushing up house prices without addressing the underlying shortage of housing. The scheme had already started to wind down as the market for low deposit mortgages had opened up before its introduction. The government's letter to the Bank of England stated that the scheme had served its purpose and was causing pressure due to rising house prices. While the equity loan scheme for new builds will remain, the mortgage guarantee scheme's end marks another crutch being removed from the housing market, which has been artificially sustained by various measures in recent years.

    • Housing Market Challenges and SolutionsExperts suggest longer mortgage fixes to mitigate housing market challenges, but individual financial situations should be considered.

      The housing market is facing challenges, and the reliance on equity loans and government schemes to help young people get on the property ladder could be changing. While these schemes help buyers get onto the ladder faster, they also contribute to rising house prices, which can create a large gap between house prices and wages. The long-term sustainability of the housing market is a concern, and some experts suggest that people consider fixing their mortgages for longer periods instead of the popular 2-year fixes. However, it's important to note that individual financial situations and advice from professionals should be taken into account when making decisions. Overall, the housing market is complex, and it's crucial to consider various factors before making a decision.

    • Considering mortgage terms? Look beyond monthly savingsChoose mortgage term based on lifestyle factors and long-term financial security to save stress and money

      When considering the costs of different mortgage terms, it's important to look beyond just the monthly savings and consider the potential fees and hassle of remortgaging multiple times. Additionally, people's living situations and plans can change significantly in a few years, making a longer-term mortgage more beneficial for some. It's essential to ask lifestyle questions and consider factors like how long you plan to stay in a property, whether you might have children, or if you're considering self-employment before choosing a mortgage term. Overall, prioritizing financial security and avoiding the hassle of remortgaging multiple times can save stress and money in the long run.

    • BHS Online Relaunch Employs 80 Former StaffBHS's online-only store employs 80 former staff, signaling a vote of confidence in the brand and its people. Success depends on offering good products, reliable delivery, and excellent customer service.

      Despite the negative news surrounding BHS and its previous owners, the relaunch of bhs.com as an online-only store has employed 80 of the former staff, signaling a vote of confidence in the brand and its people. However, the success of the online venture remains to be seen, especially considering the loyalty factor and the competition from other retailers like Aldi, which is expanding in the UK market and posing a threat to established players like Waitrose. The key to BHS's online success will be offering good products, reliable delivery times, and excellent customer service to differentiate itself from competitors. The retail landscape continues to be challenging, with Sainsbury's experiencing a second consecutive quarterly sales decline, and Aldi's growth fueled by record-breaking sales and the popularity of its premium wine offerings.

    • Aldi's Sales Growth and Profit Decrease: Disrupting Competitors with Price CutsDespite strong sales growth, Aldi's profit decrease highlights the challenges of maintaining low prices while investing in improvements.

      Aldi, a privately-owned discount supermarket chain, reported strong sales growth of 12% last year but experienced a decrease in operating profits due to price cuts. This strategy is causing disruption to competitors like Tesco, Sainsbury's, Morrisons, and even Aldi itself, which prides itself on its "back to basics" atmosphere. Aldi's £300,000,000 revamp and expansion into premium offerings, such as Waitrose and 70 new stores, raise questions about how they can maintain their budget model while appealing to a broader customer base. The speakers in the discussion agreed that Aldi's success is impressive but wondered if they can keep their stores' simple layout and low prices while investing in improvements. The £300,000,000 revamp might not go as far as it seems, considering the size of their stores compared to competitors like Tesco. Overall, Aldi's continued growth and strategic decisions will be interesting to watch.

    • Exploring alternative ways to save moneyConsider parking on a stranger's driveway, driving calmly, shopping at libraries, and avoiding aggressive driving to save money. Libraries and Amazon may not always have price differences.

      There are numerous creative and effective ways to save money, many of which were shared during the celebration of Money Mail's 50th anniversary. Some tips included parking on a stranger's driveway to save on parking fees, driving calmly to save on fuel, and shopping at police auctions or libraries instead of Amazon. Aggressive driving was identified as a hidden cost, with aggressive drivers using up to a third more fuel than gentle ones. Another surprising tip was that Amazon isn't always the cheapest option, and using the library instead could result in significant savings. Overall, the discussion emphasized the importance of being mindful of everyday expenses and exploring alternative options to save money.

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    • The impact of Christmas on the supply chain
    • Why the supply chain will be holistic, connected & real-time
    • Opening the digital window to the consumer
    • The need for the supply chain to exceed customer expectations
    • US Retailer inventory accuracy example
    • Exception based reporting focusing on what's important
    • The role Blue Yonder plays to help with supply chain fluctuations
    • The need for shorter technology deployment cycles
    • Should consumers care about what goes on behind the scenes?
    • 3 Actionable things to do today

    More on Wayne
    Wayne on Twitter
    Wayne on LinkedIn
    Blue Yonder Website

    Books Wayne is reading
    Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters
    Factfulness Illustrated: Ten Reas


    Your Host: Actionable Futurist® & Chief Futurist Andrew Grill
    For more on Andrew - what he speaks about and recent talks, please visit ActionableFuturist.com

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