Much has happened in the last month.
Theresa May has said she will step down as Prime Minister on 7 June. Her replacement as leader of the Conservative Party will be selected by just over 100,000 members of the party, after a short list of two has been agreed by Conservative MPs. Assuming this time – unlike last time – the decision does go to the membership, a new leader of the Conservative Party will not be in place until mid July.
The new leader of the Conservative Party will then be asked by the Queen to form a government – unless, and this is vaguely possible, a significant number of Conservative MPs refuse to support a government led by the new leader. This would create crisis and chaos - and is unlikely.
Moreover, the DUP’s confidence and supply arrangement with the Government is in difficulty. It is in supposed to be in place until the end of this Parliament – when the next election is held. But the DUP has in effect breached the agreement by voting against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.
So the Conservative Party may not have a majority under the new leader unless and until another confidence and supply arrangement is in place, or the existing one reaffirmed.
The European elections have changed the context for the leadership election. The Brexit Party gained around a third of votes in Britain, destroying the Conservative Party’s electoral support. This in itself pushes the Conservative Party towards a stronger pro-Brexit position. Moreover, a recent opinion survey found that the majority of Conservative Party members favour leaving the EU without a deal, with 76% favouring no deal over no Brexit. Leadership contenders will be playing to that audience.
The favourite to win is Boris Johnson, whose previous comments indicate a lack of concern over the Irish border. He seems to believe it is not a real issue. However, he might become a more serious politician if he became prime minister. And he did, at the end, vote for Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Second favourite is Dominic Raab, who favours a no deal Brexit – probably on the basis that a more favourable deal could be negotiated after the UK leaves the EU. Esther McVey is another front runner, with a similar view.
Of the others, Michael Gove is more pragmatic over Brexit – but has taken a hard line on the Northern Ireland peace process, arguing that the Good Friday Agreement was a mistake. Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt is one of the few contenders to say that a no deal Brexit outcome would be very damaging for the UK.
The European elections had other impacts. The Labour Party did badly, reducing the chances of it forming the next UK government. In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party did badly, losing its MEP seat. While Sinn Fein topped the poll, it lost almost as large a percentage of its votes as the Ulster Unionists did, while performing even worse in the Republic. Sinn Fein will now be reflecting on its performance and considering what it can do to strengthen its position.
In continental Europe, the largest political groups – the centre right and centre left groups – both lost support. Ultra nationalists did well. The liberals also did well, enlarging their group. This has strengthened the position of Emmanuel Macron, even though his party came second in France behind the far right. The result of this is that the next President of the European Commission is now more likely to be Michel Barnier. And that means it is even less likely that the EU would agree to reopen its negotiations with the UK, or in any way change its position.
Pulling these strands together, the likelihood now is that there is probably a more than 50% chance that the UK will leave the EU without a deal at the end of October. That in turn makes it likely that there will be some type of controlled border in Ireland, either a land border or in the Irish Sea. Or some combination of the two. That is the probability that should be planned for.
This is not inevitable, but it is difficult to see how any other outcome can be achieved, given the political dynamics played out in the European elections, plus the repeated stalemate in the House of Commons. It is correct to say that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no deal exit, but nor is there as yet a majority for anything else either. And in the absence of an alternative agreed position, the default setting is that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October. And that is now what other EU countries are planning for.
The best hope for Ireland and Northern Ireland is perhaps that Boris Johnson becomes prime minister – and promptly changes his position to one of pragmatism and gets the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May through the House of Commons. Just how he could do that, is difficult to plot at the moment.
