Hostage Truce Extended, EU Debt Problems & House Price Discounts

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host John Tucker takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a preview of the June jobs report.
• In the UK – a look ahead to UK elections.
• In Asia – a look ahead to the July 1st anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong to China from British colonial rule.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) President Joe Biden stumbled through exchanges in Thursday's presidential debate, a performance that risks exacerbating concerns about his age and intensifying Democratic worries about their candidate's ability to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November's election.

(2) The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the US is running deficits that are too big and is weighed down by too much debt, and it warned of dangers from increasingly aggressive trade policies.

(3)  European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc's executive arm, as part of an agreement on top jobs for the next five-year mandate. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being “out of touch” with voters as the Labour leader promised to fix Britain’s stagnant economy and ailing public services, and the prime minister used the final televised debate to attack his poll-leading rival on taxes ahead of next week’s election.

(2) Finance chieftains are once again looking to invest in London as political turmoil in France and the US make the UK look more competitive on the global stage, according to the chief executive officer of a top London lobbying group.

(3) Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be ready to build a new coalition that could govern if elections deliver a hung parliament as a leftist bloc he’s joined struggles to paper over internal divisions.

(4)European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate.

(5) The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Leaders of France’s three biggest political groups clashed in their first televised debate on everything from retirement and taxes to immigration as they sought to convince voters that they can be trusted to run Europe’s second-biggest economy.

(2) Keir Starmer, who polls show is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, said his Labour Party would target economic growth of at least 2.5% if it came to power at the July 4 general election.

(3) Italy will be offered the chance to fill a senior role in the next European Commission as centrist parties look to wrap up a deal on the bloc’s top jobs before a summit later this week.

(4) Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress in 2025.

(5) Rivian Automotive will get a much-needed cash infusion through a new partnership with Volkswagen AG as automakers large and small rethink their strategies in a slowing electric-vehicle market. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, as an ongoing selloff erased a historic amount of value for the AI-focused chipmaker.

(2) The Federal Reserve has shown other US regulators a three-page document of possible changes to their bank-capital overhaul that would significantly lighten the load on Wall Street lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. 

(3) Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange will plead guilty to leaking US national security secrets and return to his home country of Australia, under a deal with the Justice Department that ends an almost 15-year battle over his prosecution.

(4) President Emmanuel Macron said the agendas of the far-right and far-left blocs in France’s upcoming legislative elections pit the country’s people against each other, going so far as to say that “extreme” parties could spark a “civil war.”

(5) Britain’s housing crisis has become so acute that the next government will need to build the equivalent of another city the size of London to make up for five decades of below-target construction, analysis of official data shows.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:

(1) Rishi Sunak's chances of avoiding a landslide defeat in the UK general election dwindled further as his governing Conservative Party struggled to contain revelations that several of the prime minister's close aides placed bets on the date of the vote.

(2) Emmanuel Macron again sought to explain his decision to dissolve parliament, saying he aimed to take into account the defeat his party suffered in European elections and to avoid an even greater risk of turmoil to come.

(3) China and the European Union agreed to start talks on the bloc's plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation. 

(4) US prosecutors have recommended to senior Justice Department officials that Boeing Co. face criminal charges for violating a settlement related to two fatal crashes, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter it didn't identify.

(5) The so-called Ozempic Revolution has wiped billions off the market value of food and drink companies. But new weight-loss drugs are giving a boost to at least one line of products that have sometimes previously faced sluggish demand: yogurt.  

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP, PCE data.
• In the UK – a look ahead to Iran’s Presidential election.
• In Asia – a discussion on the first 2024 U.S Presidential debate and how the U.S-China relationship will gain attention.

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) French President Emmanuel Macron spent much of his tenure persuading bankers and fund managers to flock to Paris after Brexit. His decision to call snap elections may give some in the industry pause.

(2) German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of the country’s 16 federal states discussed plans to outsource asylum procedures to a third country, inspired by similar initiatives in the UK and Italy.

(3) As the cheap-money era fades into history, the world’s biggest real-estate investor Blackstone is moving into riskier new terrain in the hunt for stellar returns. 

(4) The Bank of England breathed fresh life into hopes for an imminent cut in interest rates, hinting that more of its officials may be close to backing a pivot away from the highest borrowing costs in 16 years. UK consumer confidence improved for a third consecutive month to the strongest level in 2 and 1/2 years, reflecting a rosier economic outlook ahead of the general election.

(5) Keir Starmer is preparing a blitz of planning reforms if his Labour Party wins the UK election next month, aimed at immediately boosting housebuilding in Britain as he seeks to deliver 1.5 million homes over five years.

(6) A pair of large bets in the fed funds futures market are attracting attention on Wall Street by setting aside the market-implied consensus for the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) This may be one meeting where the Bank of England is thankful the decision has been made for them. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s move three weeks ago to call an election has all but ruled out a rate cut when policymakers announce their decision at 12 p.m London time.

(2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is heading for an electoral wipeout in the UK general election on July 4, according to three major polls on Wednesday, including one that projected even the premier will lose his seat.

(3) Amid a brutal hiring war, Steve Cohen’s Point72, Ken Griffin’s Citadel and other giant hedge funds are going in a radical new direction: Training schemes for in-house superstars.

(4) The head of France’s Medef business lobby criticized the campaign programs of both the far right and an alliance of leftist parties, saying they are a danger to the economy.

(5) Citigroup said artificial intelligence is likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than in any other sector as the technology is poised to upend consumer finance and makes workers more productive.

(6) As in past disputes, China looks to be readying a series of actions to punish the European Union for its proposed tariffs on electric cars. 

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Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Nvidia’s relentless rally has propelled the semiconductor giant’s market capitalization over its mega-cap tech peers, helping it clinch the title of the world’s most-valuable company as the artificial intelligence wave continues.

(2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on track to lose more than two thirds of the seats they won at the last general election when Britons cast their votes next month, according to the latest seat-by-seat analysis pointing to an electoral wipe-out for the prime minister’s party.

(3) Some UK private schools say they’ll have to cut bursary programs that help low-income families should the party follow through on charging schools a value-added tax.

(4) France and Italy will be among seven countries that will face a European Union infringement procedure for their excessive deficits last year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

(5) National Rally leader Jordan Bardella said he will not become prime minister if his party doesn’t get a resounding victory in France’s snap election, setting a high bar for the far right to take the reins of policymaking.

(6) Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for his first visit to North Korea in 24 years as the US warned the meeting could further arms transfers from Kim Jong Un’s regime that aid the Kremlin in its assault on Ukraine. 

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What's in store for the global economy in 2023? Well, it's not going to be pretty. A raging war in Europe, sky-high inflation, and an unstable China will create strong economic headwinds in the year to come. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Globalization has brought prosperity to billions worldwide. And in the United States, the economy has made it out of the pandemic remarkably well.

On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to renowned global economist, Dambisa Moyo, who says global inflation is not going anywhere, as the likelihood of a worldwide recession looms large. The US and China are moving into creating separate economic worlds, but are still closely linked. Although most of the world understands that they need to transition to cleaner energy, in the short term they still rely on “a hundred million barrels of oil every day.” Europe is creating what Moyo calls an “industrial Band-Aid solution,” rather than long term solutions to rely on energy from other countries.  They discuss how these combined threats will affect the world economy this year.

Host: Ian Bremmer

Guest: Dambisa Moyo

Mihir Bose thinks he will and not only that, he will lead the Conservative party to win it. David and Nigel disagree. What will be the deciding factor? It's the economy, stupid. 

Former BBC News sports editor Mihir Bose, Economics editor of the Sunday Times David Smith and political commentator Nigel Dudley discuss the week’s news.

Get in contact with the podcast by emailing threeoldhacks@outlook.com, we’d love to hear from you!

Dans sa dernière chronique "Une immense crise financière menace", Monsieur Attali annonce des indicateurs multidimensionnels graves aux États-Unis, décrit leur impact dévastateur prévisible sur la 1ère puissance du monde, sur l'Europe et sur le reste du monde, et propose une solution pour éviter le tsunami qui pointe à un horizon très proche.

Pour lui, il faut opérer une "réorientation radicale de l’économie mondiale vers un mode de développement nouveau, avec un tout autre rapport à la propriété des biens de consommation et du logement, réduisant à la fois l’endettement et l’empreinte climatique".

En d'autres termes, Monsieur Attali nous annonce "le feu ravageur à la maison" et nous suggère pour l'éteindre, une solution dont la pertinence reste à démontrer, et qui nécessiterait un siècle pour la mettre en œuvre. Il ne peut avoir échappé à Monsieur Attali que la "réorientation radicale de l'économie mondiale" relève d'un domaine de "Culture" et non pas de "Nature", et donc ne se décide pas, ne s'applique pas, de cette façon chirurgicale, mécanique, expéditive.

Les risques que décrit Monsieur Attali sont incontestablement factuels, imminents et très graves, et donc appellent des solutions réalistes de très court et de moyen termes, qui soient inspirées d'une vision stratégique plus globale, et qui impliquent des opérateurs bien au-delà des seules frontières américaines.

Lire la suite  

La hausse du taux directeur par la Réserve fédérale des Etats-Unis commence à faire des dégâts. La faillite de la Silicon Valley Bank fait craindre un effet domino qui s’étend à l’ensemble de la planète.

« Les Américains peuvent se rassurer, le système bancaire est solide », a déclaré le 13 mars, le président Joe Biden, suite à la faillite déclarée, le 10 mars, de la Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), 16ème plus grande banque des Etats-Unis.

Ces propos seront-ils suffisants pour rassurer les Américains, qui viennent d’assister à la seconde plus grosse faillite de l’Histoire des Etats-Unis, après celle de la banque « Washington Mutual », en septembre 2008 ?

Pour répondre à cette question, il faut d’abord savoir si la faillite de la SVB, qui pesait 209 milliards de dollars d’actifs, rapidement suivie par celles de la Silvergate Bank, 14 milliards de dollars, et de la Signature Bank, 110 milliards de dollars, relève uniquement du défaut de liquidité ou, plus grave, d’une défaillance systémique.

Chronique d’une faillite surprise

Le 8 mars, les dirigeants de la Silicon Valley Bank ont annoncé avoir subi une perte de 1,8 milliards de dollars sur la vente d’obligations et font appel à une hausse de capital de l’ordre des 2 milliards de dollars pour disposer de suffisamment de liquidité pour répondre aux besoins de ses clients, des startups exclusivement.

La SVB disposait, en effet, d’un portefeuille de titres de créance à des fins de transaction à court terme, les AFS, comptabilisés sur son bilan à hauteur de 23,97 milliards de dollars, mais que la banque régionale californienne a dû céder pour seulement 21,45 milliards de dollars.

On a appris, par la suite, que c’est la banque d’investissement Goldman Sachs qui s’est portée acquéreur des dites obligations.

Mais qu’est-ce qui explique un tel besoin de liquidités, au point que la SVB en soit arrivé à vendre à perte son portefeuille d’obligations ?

Le piège de l’argent facile

En réaction à la crise sanitaire due à la pandémie du Covid19 et aux mesures restrictives qui en découlaient, le gouvernement américain a versé, depuis mars 2020, quelques 5.000 milliards de dollars sous forme d’aides aux entreprises et aux particuliers.

Il va sans dire que tout cet argent, crée ex-nihilo par la Réserve fédérale, conjugué à des taux d’intérêts très bas, pratiqués par cette institution depuis plus d’une décennie, est générateur d’inflation.

In this podcast, ALIVE Magazine columnist, Certified Financial Planner and Certified Investment Adviser, John Gardner gives us his annual outlook for the new year (2020). In this (part two) John discusses specifics about the global market. While John specializes in counseling high net-worth investors, his sound advice is applicable to listeners of all income levels. Listen and learn!