How COVID-19 is Accelerating Geopolitical Shifts| Interview With Ian Bremmer

Western countries have seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Since then, the question of what to do with those assets has loomed large over debates about Ukraine.

Vladimir Milov is a Former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation and now a Russian opposition politician. Milov makes a compelling case for the expropriation of these assets as a means to aid Ukraine's reconstruction efforts and explains the web of state-affiliated money hidden overseas. Vladimir Milov delves into the staggering amount of Russian capital funneled out of the country, shedding light on the possibility that a significant portion is controlled by entities with direct ties to the Russian state. He emphasizes the necessity of differentiating between clearly identified state-owned assets and the more obscured parastatal resources that play a role in the international economy. Milov also discusses the potential for substantial funds to be uncovered, which could dramatically aid in the reconstruction of Ukraine's war-damaged infrastructure and society.

Vladimir Milov's article for GlobeSec

Stuart Reid is the executive editor of Foreign Affairs and author of the new book "The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination." The book tells the story of Congo's liberation from Belgium in the 1950s and 60s and the rise to prominence of Patrice Lumumba, Congo's charismatic independence leader. Believing Lumumba to be under the sway of the Soviet Union, the CIA hatched a plot to assassinate him at a time when Congo was falling into a chaotic civil war. Into this civil war, UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld dispatched a unique peacekeeping mission to restore order and died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances.  Stuart Reid weaves each of these stories into a single compelling narrative that reads at times like a spy thriller. 

Alexander Ward ia national security reporter for POLITICO and author of the book "The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump." We discuss the implications of Mitch McConnell stepping down as the leader of the Senate Republicans and delve into the key themes and insights from Ward's important new book. We explore the concept of the "foreign policy for the middle class" and how it shaped the Biden administration's approach to foreign policy. Ward also examines the decision-making process behind the Afghanistan withdrawal and the administration's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Our conversation sheds light on the acrimonious relationship between Biden and Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, and the challenges of navigating international crises. The episode concludes with a discussion on the ongoing Gaza crisis and the potential impact of Trumpism on future foreign policy decisions.

There is a global development pileup on the horizon. In 2024 and 2025, about a dozen funding pools that support global development and global health are due for replenishment. These replenishments are essentially fundraisers for entities like the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (GAVI), and the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), among many, many others.

A new report from the Center for Global Development warns that these fundraisers may all be competing with each other for similar pools of money—and doing so at a time of contracting foreign aid budgets and pivotal elections in key donor countries.

One of the authors of that report, Clemence Landers, joins me for a conversation about the causes and consequences of a potential replenishment traffic jam. We kick off discussing what we mean by a "replenishment" in Global Development speak. Clemence Landers also makes the point that of these fundraisers, the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) is arguably the most consequential. IDA is the branch of the World Bank that provides grants and very concessional loans to support the development priorities of the lowest-income countries. The World Bank president is seeking a major replenishment this December.

On January 28th, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger jointly announced they were leaving the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. This is a regional economic and political union of most countries in West africa. Citizens enjoy free movement across borders of ECOWAS member states and many of its members share the same currency.  ECOWAS also seeks to uphold democratic norms, and each of these three countries are led by military juntas. Now, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are setting up rival entity, called the Alliance of Sahel States. 

Joining me to discuss the significance of this joint decision to exit ECOWAS is Ornella Moderan, a researcher and practitioner who's been working in the Sahel and West Africa for nearly 15 years. She is currently a Research Fellow with the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute. We kick off discussing the role of ECOWAS in West Africa, particularly the important,albeit imperfect, ways it seeks to uphold democracy in the region. She then explains why these countries left ECOWAS and what this decision means for the region, for Africa and for the world at large. 

Last week, the United States Senate passed a foreign aid bill that included about $60 billion for Ukraine's defense. The vote was overwhelmingly bi-partisan, but the ultimate fate of continued American aid for Ukraine now depends on action in the House of Representatives, where the outcome is unknown.

Mounting uncertainty around America's commitment to Ukraine's defense comes at the two year anniversary of Russia's invasion. The apparent wavering today is a far cry from the overwhelmingly broad support for Ukraine in the early days of the war. So how did we get to this point? And how might the passage or not of a spending bill to support Ukraine impact the trajectory of the war and the transatlantic alliance that has emerged in Ukraine's defense? Joining me to discuss these questions and more is Peter Van Praagh, President of HFX, a Washington, DC based organization that convenes the Halifax International Security Forum. We kick off discussing the action in the United States Congress before having a broader conversation about the necessity of international support for Ukraine and the implications should that support waver. 

Disorder Podcast https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty

Indonesia is the third largest democracy in the world, and on February 14th national elections were held including to replace the extremely popular outgoing president Joko Widodo. The current defense minister Prabowo Subianto won those elections and will be Indonesia's next president. He's a controversial figure who has been credibly accused of human rights abuses during Indonesia's long Suharto dicatorship. He was also a former rival of Joko Widodo, but received the popular president's backing while tapping the president's son as to run as his presidential nominee. 

Indonesia is a massive democracy in an increasingly stragegic region. So what does Prabowo Subianto's election mean for Indonesia's foreign policy, its relationship to the United States and China, and for broader global trends like climate change? To answer these questions and more I speak with Prashanth Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Wilson Center and Founder of the Asean Wonk Newsletter. We kick off discussing Prabowo's background before having a longer conversation about how this change in government may impact Indonesian foreign policy. 

2024 is an important year for African democracy. At least 19 national elections scheduled to take place this year. Not all of these elections will be free or fair-- let alone competetive. Some of these elections will serve to ensconce leaders for life like Rwanda's Paul Kagame. Others may serve to consolidate power following a coup. But genuine multi-party democracies like Ghana and South Africa are also headed to the polls in important elections. 

Joining me to discuss key trends in African democracy and some of the highlights on the African electoral calendar in 2024 is Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. We kick off discussing Senegal, a once reliably stable democracy that has experienced significant backsliding and recently cancelled upcoming elections. 

Disorder Podcast

To understand any country's foreign policy you need to understand domestic political dynamics. So what is driving Iranian decision making right now? Negar Mortazavi is a journalist, host of the Iran Podcast and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. I reached out to her for this interview because it seems that lost in much commentary about the widening crisis in the middle east is a nuanced understanding of what is influencing Iranian policy and decision making. Our conversation focuses on Iranian domestic politics and how that is shaping the regime's response to the Gaza crisis and US strikes against Iran backed groups in the region.

Disorder Podcast:  https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty

On January 25th, a milestone was reached in humanity's long fight against Malaria. For the first time ever, a Malaria vaccine was included in a country's routine childhood vaccinations program. Cameroon rolled out a new Malaria vaccine for children and other countries will soon follow. This comes after years of successful trials in Kenya, Ghana and Malawi which demonstrated the vaccine to be safe and effective in preventing Malaria deaths among children. 

Joining me to put this milestone in context is Margaret McDonnell, Executive Director of United to Beat Malaria, a global grassroots campaign of the United Nations Foundation. We kick off discussing the burden of Malaria around the world and have a broader conversation about how this new vaccine fits into global efforts to rid humanity of Malaria.