Podcast Summary
2020 presidential race: Our deeply divided electorate makes politics feel stuck, but every factor matters in a close race, including the candidates, campaigns, messages, and volunteers.
Despite the seismic political developments in the 2020 presidential race, from a felony conviction and assassination attempt to a vice president uniting the party and potentially making history, the race remains close. Lynn Vaverick, a UCLA political scientist, explains that our deeply divided electorate is calcified, making politics feel stuck. The choice for voters may be hard, but everything matters in a close race. The candidates, their campaigns, their messages, and volunteers all play a crucial role in persuading voters to break out of calcification. However, the movement in the polls may just be taking us back to where we thought we would be initially. The Harris campaign will need to keep the momentum going into early voting to keep the "party" going and potentially change the underlying structure of the contest for voters.
Kamala Harris poll numbers: Historically, voters who move away from a candidate after a poor debate performance may return if the candidate recovers, as shown in Kamala Harris's case during the 2020 election. Her potential impact could still be pivotal in the close race between the parties, and her enthusiastic campaign and ability to bring new voters could make a significant difference.
The shifting poll numbers for Kamala Harris should not be entirely surprising, as historical data shows that voters who move away from a candidate after a poor debate performance may return if the candidate recovers. Harris's rise in the polls after a strong debate performance and subsequent decline before regaining ground can be compared to the 2012 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The difference this time is that Harris is a new candidate, but her potential impact could still be pivotal in the very close race between the two parties. Additionally, Harris's enthusiastic campaign and potential to bring new voters into the electorate could make a significant difference in the final outcome. While crowd size and enthusiasm should not be the sole measure of a candidate's popularity, it is important to recognize that a large and engaged base can lead to more voters turning out for the election. Ultimately, the compressed campaign period means that voters are making decisions about Harris based on their party affiliations and initial impressions, with Democrats already firmly in her camp and the undecided or independent voters still evaluating her candidacy.
Biden's 'Freedom' Message: Biden's adoption of the 'freedom' message, emphasizing individual choice and limited gov't, has resonated with ind/undecided voters, shifting some from Dems to him. Trump's base remains steady, and the upcoming DNC will showcase Harris and her agenda, while the anti-MAGA coalition continues to influence politics.
The Biden administration has effectively adopted the "freedom" message, traditionally associated with the Republican party, to appeal to independent and undecided voters. This approach, which emphasizes individual choice and limited government intervention, is a departure from the democracy-focused messaging of the past. The success of this strategy is evident in the polls, which show a significant number of Biden voters from the last election shifting away from the Democratic ticket. Additionally, Trump's voter base remains steady, with his favorability rating higher than in previous elections, indicating a high floor for his support. The upcoming Democratic National Convention will provide an opportunity for Kamala Harris to introduce herself and her agenda to the country, but the anti-MAGA coalition, which has been a powerful force in politics, will also continue to shape the political landscape in the lead up to the 2024 elections.
Political coalition building: Focusing on own vision and values, rather than solely opposing the other side, is key to building a large, positive coalition in politics. Every vote and point matters, and candidates and messages that resonate with voters are crucial to winning elections.
The key to building a large, positive coalition in politics lies in focusing on one's own vision and values, rather than solely opposing the other side. Elites, including political leaders and media, play a significant role in shaping public opinion. While negative partisanship has been a driving force in elections, particularly in recent years, it doesn't have to define the political landscape. The outcome of elections, especially close ones, can influence the direction of future campaigns. The candidates and messages they put forward matter, and winning elections requires a strategy that resonates with voters. The Electoral College margin of victory has been shrinking, making every vote and every point crucial. While it may be challenging to win big in a calcified election, focusing on one's positive vision and values can help break the fever of divisiveness in politics.
Harris campaign strategy: The Harris campaign is focusing on multiple pathways to victory, prioritizing data-driven decisions, and maximizing turnout and vote share among key demographics to win the presidency.
The Harris campaign, led by senior advisor David Plouffe, is in a race against time to introduce Kamala Harris to the electorate and make the case against a second Trump term, all while dealing with the challenges of launching a campaign with a new candidate in the final stretch. The campaign is focused on multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes, including states that were previously considered out of reach like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. The team is prioritizing decisions based on the best evidence and data available, and there is a sense of excitement and enthusiasm from both the campaign and the American people. Despite the challenges, the team is confident that Harris can win by maximizing turnout and vote share among key demographics and keeping Trump's margins down in certain areas.
2024 Presidential Race: The 2024 presidential race is focused on battleground states, with Kamala Harris making improvements among key demographics but needing to reach older voters and non-college white voters. The ground game and debates are crucial, and age and lack of plans may be issues for Trump.
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a battle for key battleground states, with a focus on consolidating traditional Democratic constituencies and reaching out to swing voters. Kamala Harris has made significant improvements with black, Latino, and younger voters, but there is still room for growth, particularly with older voters and non-college white voters. The ground game and retail politics are expected to play a crucial role, as Trump's campaign has been relatively inactive and lethargic. The first debate will be a significant moment, and Harris and her team are expected to be on the ground in battleground states to introduce herself to voters and contrast her values with Trump's. Additionally, age and lack of plans for the future may become an issue for Trump, making JD Vance's relevance as a potential vice presidential pick more significant. Overall, the race is still in its early stages, and evaluations will continue to shift day-to-day and week-to-week.
Introducing Kamala Harris to voters: The Kamala Harris campaign must effectively communicate Harris' biography, values, and policy positions, while contrasting her with Trump and appealing to soft Trump voters and undecideds in battleground states to maximize registration, turnout, and vote share.
The Kamala Harris campaign faces a significant challenge in introducing the Vice President to voters and contrasting her with Donald Trump, all while maximizing registration, turnout, and vote share in battleground states. The campaign must effectively communicate Harris' biography, values, and policy positions, while also highlighting the contrast between her and Trump. Despite Trump's recent controversies and the collapse of third-party votes, he still maintains a strong base of support, and the campaign must appeal to soft Trump voters and win over the undecided. The balance between messaging about Harris and Trump is crucial, as voters need to understand where Harris comes from and what she stands for in order to make an informed comparison between the two candidates. The campaign's success depends on effectively reaching and persuading these voters, and the stakes are high as the election approaches.
Maximizing voter turnout: Effectively engaging undecided or occasional voters and registering supporters is crucial for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's election success. Social media can help reach a broader audience, and authentic sharing of reasons for support can make a difference.
The key to winning the upcoming election for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz lies in maximizing voter turnout and effectively engaging undecided or occasional voters. While some experts suggest that lower turnout might benefit Democrats, it's essential to focus on registering and turning out supporters. Enthusiasm and authentic sharing of reasons for supporting Harris on social media platforms can help reach a broader audience. Encourage friends, family, and even strangers to register and vote for Harris and Walz, and don't underestimate the power of sharing content that resonates with them. Remember, everyone has the ability to make a difference in their daily life, even if it seems like an uphill battle against opposing narratives.
Election conversations: Every conversation matters in an election, especially with undecided voters. Listen, show empathy, and presume good intentions to persuade them.
Every interaction matters in an election, especially in a close race. Candidates, campaigns, and unforeseen events are important, but the conversations we have with others potentially matter most. It's essential to persuade undecided voters, even if they may be misinformed or hold unconventional views. We need to listen, show empathy, and presume good intentions to win their votes. The election isn't just about Joe Biden or Donald Trump; it's about us and our future. The conversations we have now can lead us out of the political wilderness and towards a better future. Let's have those conversations, persuade voters, and make a difference.
Podcast production team: A diverse team of talented individuals contributed to the production of 'The Wilderness' podcast, including producers, sound designers, music composers, and engineers.
"The Wilderness," a production of Cricut Media, is a thought-provoking podcast hosted by John Favreau, with the support of a dedicated team including Andrea B. Scott as senior producer and editor, Austin Fisher as producer, Ferris Afari as associate producer, Vasili's Fatopolis for sound design, Marty Fowler for music, and Charlotte Landes and Jordan Cantor for sound engineering. Katie Long, Reed Charlin, Matt DeGrot, and Madeline Herringer provided additional production support. The video team, consisting of Rachel Gieske, Joseph Dutre, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel, and David Tolls, contributed to the filming and editing of the show. If you've been inspired by the podcast, visit votesaveamerica.com/2024 to sign up and find volunteer opportunities near you.