Combining local insights and global expertise to identify the best investing opportunities: Principal Asset Management uses a comprehensive approach to real estate investing, considering both local and global factors to identify top opportunities in public and private equity and debt.
Principal Asset Management, a real estate investment firm, leverages a comprehensive perspective, combining local insights and global expertise to identify the best investing opportunities across public and private equity and debt. Meanwhile, during a visit to Annapolis, Maryland, the hosts of Odd Lots podcast noticed the polarization of American politics and media, as well as the increasing prevalence of addiction treatment center ads, indicating the significant impact of opioid addiction on the workforce and potential macroeconomic implications. This highlights how various societal issues can have far-reaching consequences. Principal Asset Management remains actively invested, and for more information, visit their website. The podcast, The Visibility Gap, explores similar topics, and you can download it wherever you get your podcasts. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
Impact of Opioid Epidemic on Businesses: The opioid epidemic is significantly impacting businesses in industries like construction, manufacturing, and transportation due to employee drug use and related challenges such as long-term unemployment and recidivism.
Key takeaway from this podcast is that the opioid epidemic is having a significant impact on businesses in the Midwest and beyond, particularly in industries like construction, manufacturing, and transportation. According to Jeff Korzenick, the chief investment strategist at 5th Third Private Bank, the opioid epidemic is just one piece of a larger puzzle that includes long-term unemployment and the incarceration recidivism cycle. Business owners have been reporting for years that finding employees who can pass a drug test has been a challenge, and the issue has only worsened with the prevalence of opioid use. This is just one of the many ways that the opioid crisis is affecting the economy, and it's important to consider these ripple effects as we continue to address this public health issue.
Labor Market Challenge: Finding Qualified, Drug-Free Workers: Employers in safety-sensitive industries struggle to find qualified workers who pass drug tests, leading to a labor shortage. Successful models offer extended Employee Assistance Programs to integrate ex-offenders, but a comprehensive approach is needed for sustainability.
The labor market in certain industries is facing a significant challenge due to the increasing difficulty in finding qualified workers who can pass drug tests. This issue is intensifying as the labor markets tighten and the problem extends beyond new hires to existing employees who are becoming addicted. Employers are looking for clean and sober workers in safety-sensitive industries, but the strict drug testing policies create hurdles. There is some flexibility in background checks for people with criminal records, but employers face liability concerns and may require additional steps to successfully integrate ex-offenders into the workforce. Successful models offer extended Employee Assistance Programs to address the unique needs of this population, resulting in low turnover rates and dedicated employees. However, the current pick-up in hiring ex-offenders is more haphazard, and sustainability remains uncertain. Employers need to consider a comprehensive approach to hiring and retaining this population to address the labor shortage effectively.
Opioid Epidemic's Economic Impact: The opioid epidemic affects 1.4 million prime-age males outside the labor force and 11.5 million Americans misusing prescription opioids, causing underemployment and a need for substantial national policy response.
The opioid epidemic is not just a social crisis but an economic one, affecting both those outside the workforce and those who are employed. According to economist Alan Krueger, over 1.4 million prime-age males are not in the labor force due to opioid addiction. Furthermore, there are 11.5 million Americans misusing prescription opioids and 2.1 million addicted individuals. This issue extends beyond unemployment to underemployment, as some individuals cannot secure jobs due to failed drug tests. While there have been some local and corporate responses, such as CVS limiting opioid prescriptions and Michigan's medical oversight board addressing overprescribing doctors, a substantial national policy response is yet to be seen. Overall, the opioid epidemic poses a significant challenge to the workforce and the economy.
Addressing the opioid crisis: Preventing overprescribing and helping those already addicted: Policies to prevent overprescribing are essential, but addressing the complex challenges faced by the 11 million plus individuals already addicted requires a comprehensive approach including community engagement and employment opportunities.
Addressing the opioid crisis requires tackling both the issue of overprescribing and the challenges faced by those already addicted. Preventing overprescribing through policies is a crucial first step, but dealing with the 11 million plus individuals already misusing opioids is a more complex problem. These individuals often face barriers to recovery, such as criminal justice involvement and difficulty finding employment. The labor market tightness and potential wage increases could provide opportunities for those not addicted to painkillers, but the inflationary forces caused by these shocks to the system may also lead to higher wages for all workers. Overall, the opioid crisis requires a comprehensive approach to policy, community engagement, and employment opportunities for those seeking recovery.
Companies investing more due to tax savings and labor market: Tax savings are leading to wage increases and capital investments as businesses respond to a tight labor market.
The current state of the economy and the new tax regime are leading to companies making decisions to increase wages and invest more in capital, rather than just giving tax cuts to shareholders. This is due to the tight labor market, which makes it more likely that a greater percentage of the tax savings will flow to workers. Additionally, the ability to expense capital investments and the need to increase productivity when labor is scarce are driving companies to invest more. The optimism among small businesses in the US can be attributed to a combination of tax policies, promised infrastructure spending, and a positive shift in the American business climate.
Small business owners feel relief and optimism after election: Small business owners are more confident to focus on growth due to a perceived stable regulatory environment, potentially leading to increased capital investment and economic growth.
The election of a new president led to a sense of relief and optimism among small and medium-sized business owners, despite no significant reduction in regulations. This relief comes primarily from the perception that the regulatory environment will no longer be constantly changing, allowing these businesses to focus on growth rather than defense. This optimism has historically led to increased capital investment, which can drive economic growth. The impact of this shift in tone is particularly significant for small, family-owned businesses, which often take regulatory issues very personally. While the actual regulatory landscape remains the same, the change in tone has given these business owners a renewed sense of confidence and the ability to focus on growing their businesses. This shift is meaningful because small and medium-sized businesses are a significant contributor to job creation in the United States.
Diversifying beyond traditional equities: Consider diversifying portfolios into real assets like REITs, infrastructure, MLPs, and gold as the best gains from the bull market may have already been realized.
According to Jeff Porzenich, Chief Investment Strategist at 5th Third Private Bank, while the bull market is not over, the best gains may have already been realized. He suggests that investors consider diversifying their portfolios beyond traditional equities into real assets like REITs, infrastructure, MLPs, and even gold. This perspective is valuable as it offers insights not only from a macroeconomic standpoint but also from someone who understands the micro-level decisions made by small business owners. The opioid epidemic is another macroeconomic factor gaining more attention, with studies showing its impact on labor markets. Two notable works on this topic are "Where Have All the Workers Gone?" by Alan Krueger and "Prescription Opioids and Labor Market Pains." Overall, this discussion highlights the importance of understanding both the big picture and the details on the ground.
Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld Launch New Weekly Podcast 'Money Stuff': Finance experts Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld debut a new weekly podcast, 'Money Stuff', discussing Wall Street finance and related topics on popular podcast platforms.
Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld, both well-known figures in the finance world, are teaming up to bring the popular Money Stuff newsletter to life as a new weekly podcast. The podcast, also named Money Stuff, will be released every Friday and will delve into Wall Street finance and other related topics, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in the financial world. You can find and listen to Money Stuff on popular podcast platforms like Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Additionally, be sure to follow Matt, Katie, and other relevant individuals, such as Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Topher Forres, and Francesca Levy, on Twitter for the latest news and updates.
How The Opioid Crisis And The Trump Administration Are Changing Middle America's Economy
Recent Episodes from Odd Lots
The Next Stage of the Credit Cycle with Oaktree’s Poli
This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of bonds or loans. But, the weird thing about the previous few years of high rates and high inflation is how much corporate credit has defied expectations. While defaults increased slightly, there wasn’t a huge wave of bankruptcies. And most companies haven’t really had trouble finding financing, with a smorgasbord of options available to them — including from the booming private credit market. So what happens now that the Fed is lowering rates? In this episode, we speak with Danielle Poli, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s Diversified Income Fund and a founding member of the firm’s investment committee, about how she sees the next leg of the credit cycle unfolding, and how she decides between a multitude of potential investments in the space.
Related Links:
The Black Hole of Private Credit That’s Swallowing the Economy
The Hottest Way for Banks to Get Risk Off Their Balance Sheets
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Pimco CIO Dan Ivascyn on the Biggest Fed Decision in Years
It’s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis points or 50? Investors are evenly split between the two possibilities, setting up one of the most uncertain meetings ever. So what does a big bond manager do on a day like this? In this episode, we speak with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO at Pimco, where he manages the $158 billion Pimco Income Fund. He tells us what he’s expecting from the FOMC, and what he’s seeing in terms of financial conditions and the real restrictiveness of the monetary environment right now. He also walks us through what Fed day is actually like at Pimco, where he thinks the economy is going, and answers the question of whether — with rates finally going down — bonds might be back in favor.
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How Josh Brown Created A Financial Media Empire
15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and exposed how little we knew about our own world. In addition to that, we were in the early moments of a revolution, which saw the rise of blogs, podcasts, "Finance Twitter" and other new platforms for disseminating information about markets and business. One of the winners from that era was Josh Brown, a former stockbroker who rose to fame in part on the back of his must-read blog The Reformed Broker. Now he's the CEO of a large investment advisory firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's got a popular podcast. He's got a new book. He's a fixture on CNBC. And he even has a conference business. We talk about his career path, what he's learned, some funny stories from the good old days, and how he became a media giant.
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Security, Bookmarked: Finance (Sponsored Content)
Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate, and cyber heists go beyond stealing money from a bank. JF Legault, Deputy CISO at J.P. Morgan Chase, explains how he leads cyber defense on the front lines of work — and lays out a strategy to transform teams into early detection networks. Then David Adrian from Chrome unpacks how web browsing protections, robust monitoring, and a real-time view of threats can fit into this kind of strategy to maximize resilience to a cyber attack.
This episode is sponsored by Chrome Enterprise.
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Lots More With Isabella Weber on Draghi's EU Competitiveness Report
This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the European economy more competitive. The report comes at a time when there are major concerns about how Europe is stacking up against the US and China in things like electrical vehicles and AI. It also dovetails with long-running debates about German fiscal austerity, economic tensions between various European Union members, energy crises, and inflation. In this episode, we speak with University of Massachusetts-Amherst economics professor Isabella Weber about her takeaways from the report and potential policy approaches to solving Europe's big competitiveness problem.
Referenced in this episode:
Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds, Joint Debt
Draghi’s Call for Joint EU Bonds Hits Wall of German Opposition
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy
One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the world with unprofitable goods and creating huge, unsustainable imbalances. Western countries, particularly the US (but also Europe), have responded by raising tariffs and engaging in domestic industrial policy in order to compete. But is the strategy sound? Are the basic premises of the problem correct? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Professor Adam Tooze, the author of several books, as well as the popular Chartbook newsletter. He argues that the overcapacity framing is misguided, and that the US may be making a mistake putting its chips down on an industrial revival. He talks us through some of the actual weaknesses of the Chinese model, as well as its global political reverberations.
Read more:
Two Veteran Chip Builders Have a Plan to Take On Nvidia
The US and China Are in an All Out Race for AI Domination
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US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of Globalization
One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Donald Trump started a process of putting tariffs on Chinese goods and limiting the export of certain key technologies. This has only expanded under the Biden administration, with expanded restrictions on things like electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. So what's the thinking behind this drive? What are the goals and what are the risks? On this episode we speak with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Ambassador Tai describes what she sees as a rethink, or a new version of, globalization. She explains the new worker-centric priorities, how trade fits into domestic investments, and what a healthy version of international economic relations actually looks like.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Booming Crypto Use Case That's Happening Right Now
Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use cases, except for gambling and speculation. For a while, there was a lot of hype about things like Web3 or DeFi, but for the most part, these still remain in the realm of pure speculation and gambling. And so, the ultimate use case for crypto remains elusive. Our guest on this episode argues otherwise. He thinks that stablecoins, such as Circle or Paxos, which are backed by actual dollar instruments in regulated institutions running on public blockchains (like Ethereum or Solana) are solving a genuine problem in transmitting money, beyond just speculating on other cryptocurrencies. Austin Campbell is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. He also comes with a long resume at both crypto and legacy financial institutions. He explains why stablecoins are having a moment and explains the problems they currently solve (particularly internationally) and why legacy payments infrastructure is unlikely to serve the same needs.
Read more:
The Case for Stablecoins Being the New Shadow Banks
How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader
One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can have a great track record in their stock picks, but maybe they just got lucky. Or maybe they were particularly well-dialed into one market regime that inevitably shifts. Or maybe they're actually just better than other traders. For multi-strategy hedge funds or "pod shops," there's an ongoing battle to hire or train the next great portfolio manager. But how can managers tell who is actually good and who isn't? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Joe Peta, who was previously the head of performance analytics at Point72 Asset Management and has had a long career in the trading world. He's also an avid fan of sports gambling, and the author of the recent book, Moneyball for the Money Set, which attempts to take some of the talent analytical principles that originated in Major League Baseball and apply them to evaluating portfolio managers. He talks us through the traditional approach funds use to find or create superstars, and how these approaches can be improved upon using more rigorous, quantitative methods.
Mentioned in this episode:
Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader
How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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The Black Hole of Private Credit That's Swallowing the Economy
There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that eventually bursts and sparks disaster. But there are other negative effects from private credit that might already be happening. In a new paper called "The Credit Markets Go Dark," co-authors Harvard Law School professor Jared Ellias and Duke University School of Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay argue that the $1.5 trillion market for private credit is already having a big impact on the economy — and not in a good way. They say that the rise of private credit marks a seismic change for corporate governance and dynamism.
Read More:
Odd Lots Newsletter: The Black Hole of Private Credit
Private Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk That Wall Street Is Fleeing
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Related Episodes
Gene Seroka on What’s Happening Now at the Port of LA
There's no single measure we can look at to tell us whether supply chains are improving or not. There are some signs of easing (such as the number of containers sitting at the ports) but other signs are still getting worse (such as the number of ships waiting to dock). So what's really going on? And are the White House's efforts at easing the strain actually bearing fruit? On this episode we speak with Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, who we last spoke to in the summer, about the actual situation on the ground.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
0:00 Bestie open: Sacks' shopping spree
2:15 Macro outlook: jobs, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, finding a bottom
39:21 Turkish government finds ~694 million mt of rare earth reserves & EU reclassifies nuclear & natural gas as "green"
48:58 Dutch farmers protests: root causes, how to move forward with smarter legislation
1:09:39 Biden's decline, Bezos responds to Biden's tweet on bringing gas prices down
Follow the besties:
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html
https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/hire-seps-rates.htm
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-conference-board-june-2022-143536146.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales#chart-existing-home-sales-vs-30yr-rate
https://www.forbes.com/sites/darreonnadavis/2022/07/05/88-of-americans-say-us-is-on-wrong-track/
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1544057786065092609
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1544380486654590983
https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1544573867804348416
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-dutch-farmers-protesting-emissions-85848026
https://www.amazon.com/The-Alchemy-of-Air-Thomas-Hager-audiobook/dp/B0046Y0BP0/ref=sr_1_1
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/uk-boris-johnson-resignation/
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080
https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1543409762867494912
MAP 052: The First Steps for a Brand New Agent w/ Rick Gonzalez
Everyone who has been in business for a while looks back at when they first started out and thinks "man, if only I knew X, Y or Z when I got started!" It's true, it took me 4 years before I figured out the right and wrong way to grow my real estate business. During those 4 years, I struggled ALOT and had some severe financial problems due to a lack of income. I would have given almost anything to have had someone sit me down and say, "here's the first few things you need to do now that you have your real estate license."
Luckily, our guest this week is here to do just that! Rick Gonzalez, host of the brand spankin' new Modern Agent Podcast, joins us to talk about the most important "first steps" that a brand new agent or Loan officer should do to start off on the right foot, and have success quickly. Even if you're not a brand new agent, you'll learn real estate business tips that will help you. Especially an agent or loan officer who is rebuilding or re-inventing themselves.
Be sure to check out Rick's new real estate podcast, the Modern Agent Podcast, at http://www.modernagentpodcast.com
Get access to our database of Facebook Ads for Agents and Lenders that have been proven to generate leads:
https://www.massiveagentsociety.com
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AMAZING Expired Call Script with Step by Step Instruction | #Relentless with Brendan Bartic
Want an expired call script that gets results? This is the same script I personally use and my team uses to list and sell thousands of expired listings!
GET MY FREE SCRIPT BOOK? Access our private FB Group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/584389598727184/about/
MY BIO:
Currently Own and Lead the #1 Real Estate Team in Denver
Sold over $950,000,000 in Residential Real Estate
Made over 50,000 Client Relationships through outbound lead generation
2,500+ Listing Appointments
Currently ranked in the top 1% of all Keller Williams Teams Internationally
One of the Top 1000 agents in the nation by REAL Trends & The Wall Street Journal
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Spotlight: How Biden’s Regulatory Blunders Are Crushing American Ingenuity
Administration regulators have tightened water-use rules, pushed for energy-efficiency standards and its war on fossil fuels continues. All these unnecessary rules from Washington are making life less pleasant, more irritating and more expensive! Steve Forbes on how Biden's regulatory blunders are crushing American ingenuity and on why government interference is only making things worse.
Steve Forbes shares his What’s Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
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