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    Instant Reaction: Nvidia Sales Forecast Falls Short

    enAugust 28, 2024
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    Podcast Summary

    • NVIDIA earnings reportHigh investor expectations for NVIDIA's earnings report due to impressive growth and anticipated data center revenue beat. Market watching for strong guidance to determine staying power of AI investment cycle.

      The upcoming earnings report from NVIDIA, expected to cross shortly, holds significant importance due to high investor expectations and the company's impressive growth. The data center revenue, a crucial metric, is anticipated to beat estimates, but the third quarter guide will determine the staying power of the AI investment cycle. Despite the stock's strong performance this year, there's tension due to previous overbought periods and high expectations. The second quarter results showed a revenue beat, with data center revenue coming in at $26.3 billion, above estimates. The company also approved an additional $50 billion in share buybacks and maintained the quarterly dividend. Overall, the market is closely watching the earnings for signs of continued growth and strong guidance.

    • Nvidia earnings, AI demandNvidia reported record revenues due to strong demand for its high-performance GPUs in AI and data centers, but the stock saw only modest reaction due to high expectations. CEO expressed confidence in continued demand for AI accelerators, but production challenges for new product and high valuation add uncertainty.

      Nvidia's Q2 earnings report showed strong demand for its high-performance GPUs, particularly in the area of generative AI and data centers. The company reported record revenues, but the stock saw only a modest reaction due to high expectations. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Wong, expressed confidence in the continued demand for AI accelerators, as Nvidia is nearly the sole provider in this market segment. However, investors may be concerned about the production challenges surrounding the release of Nvidia's new product, Blackwell, which is much larger than previous GPUs and has two compute dies. The stock saw a significant decline in after-hours trading, with some investors expressing disappointment that the revenue numbers did not meet their high expectations. Microsoft, a major customer for Nvidia, has committed to significant capital expenditures, but it remains to be seen if this trend will continue over the longer term. The stock trades at a high valuation, and retail investors have recently piled into the stock, adding to the uncertainty around its future performance.

    • Nvidia's AI chip revenuesNvidia's new AI chip, Blackwell, could generate several billion dollars in revenues in Q4, despite production challenges, reflecting high demand for advanced chips in data centers.

      Nvidia's expected revenues from its new AI chip, Blackwell, in the fourth quarter could reach several billion dollars, according to the company's CFO commentary. This is significant as the chip, which is not a small handheld device but rather a core technology that goes into a large server rack, presents production challenges when produced at scale. Despite some technical challenges, Nvidia is confident in the product's potential and investors seem to agree, despite some initial after-hours decline in stock price. The revenue from Blackwell could be substantial, given the size and demand for advanced AI chips in data centers. However, more specifics about the fourth-quarter shipments and their impact on the company's overall performance would be helpful for a clearer understanding. In the upcoming interview with Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, Ed may delve deeper into these topics and provide further insights.

    • NVIDIA Blackwell delayNVIDIA's Q4 revenue from Blackwell will be significant but delayed shipments have caused uncertainty and potential upside to Q1 revenue expectations

      While NVIDIA's Q4 revenue from Blackwell is expected to be significant, recent delays have caused some uncertainty and disappointment among investors. The company's earnings beat expectations, but the delay in Blackwell shipments could impact the magnitude of the beat. NVIDIA is still seeing strong demand for its Hopper series, and the supply has been able to keep up. The delay might actually push out the revenue to the first quarter of the fiscal year, which could potentially drive upside to the revenue expectations. The delay is not being viewed as completely disappointing, as some shipment is still expected in the fourth quarter. Overall, while NVIDIA's earnings were strong, the delay in Blackwell shipments has caused some uncertainty and volatility in the stock price.

    • AI chip demand trendsDespite NVIDIA's recent revenue miss, broader AI chip demand remains strong due to hyperscalers, big internet companies, and cloud players' continued spending, as well as NVIDIA's diversification into enterprise and other segments.

      Despite NVIDIA's recent revenue results falling short of some optimistic estimates, the broader demand trends for AI chips remain strong. The hyperscalers, big internet companies, and cloud players have all reported beats to their capex and revenues, indicating that demand is not slowing down. NVIDIA's top customers, including Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Super Microcomputer, continue to spend heavily on NVIDIA's chips, providing confidence in the company's growth story. Additionally, NVIDIA's shift towards diversifying its revenue streams away from the big cloud customers and towards enterprise and internet and vertical companies is a positive sign. While the cloud giants will continue to drive a majority of the growth, the continued growth in these other segments is important for long-term sustainability.

    • NVIDIA Blackwell series revenueInvestors and analysts are uncertain about NVIDIA's Blackwell series revenue for the fourth quarter, causing significant stock market volatility. Gaining clarity on volume and dollar outlook is crucial to alleviate concerns.

      That the focus of investors and analysts during NVIDIA's earnings call will primarily revolve around the company's Blackwell series revenue for the fourth quarter. The uncertainty surrounding this aspect of the report has caused significant volatility in the stock market. Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst, Alice Kunchum Koon-John Sabani, emphasized the importance of gaining as much detail as possible regarding the volume and dollar outlook for the Blackwell series to alleviate concerns and provide clarity. The upcoming earnings call with CEO Jensen Wong is highly anticipated, and investors will be eagerly seeking answers to quell the uncertainty.

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