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    Is the runway property market due a reckoning from rising rates and inflation?

    enMarch 04, 2022

    Podcast Summary

    • UK House Prices Reach Record Highs Amidst Cost-of-Living CrisisUK house prices have surged by 12.6% to £260,320, adding to the cost-of-living crisis for many. Cheap mortgages and pent-up demand fuel the trend, contrasting initial pandemic expectations.

      House prices in the UK have reached record highs compared to wages, with the average home now costing £260,320, an increase of 12.6% over the past year. This significant jump, equivalent to £29,000, has added to the cost-of-living crisis for many. The reasons for this trend include pent-up demand, Brexit uncertainty, and low mortgage rates. Despite recent mortgage rate increases, mortgages remain relatively cheap, encouraging banks to lend generously. This situation contrasts starkly with initial expectations during the pandemic when a property freeze was anticipated. House prices have gone "completely bananas," and while some may rejoice, others face steep challenges in affording an average home.

    • UK Housing Market Less Affordable Than EverThe UK housing market is currently unreachable for many due to record-high house prices that are more than six times the average wage.

      The current housing market in the UK is significantly less affordable than it has been historically, with the average house price being more than six times higher than the average wage. This is a record high, surpassing even the peaks of previous property booms. The lack of available homes on the market, coupled with high demand, has led to intense competition and bidding wars, driving up prices even further. Despite some predictions of a slowdown, economic factors such as rising living costs and mortgage rates may put a brake on house prices, but it remains to be seen how significant this impact will be. Ultimately, the high house price to earnings ratio makes homeownership a significant financial challenge for many people, especially solo buyers.

    • Housing Market Faces Challenges, But No Crash ImminentDespite rising costs and geopolitical tensions, demand for properties remains high. However, affordability may limit buyers' offers, potentially capping house price growth.

      The housing market is expected to experience slower growth, but not a crash, due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance. Despite rising mortgage rates, cost of living increases, and geopolitical tensions, the demand for properties from first-time buyers remains high. However, affordability could become a significant limiting factor, as banks and building societies assess borrowers based on their income and outgoings, including rising energy bills and food costs. This could potentially limit how much buyers can offer for properties and result in lower offers, putting a cap on house price growth. The Bank of England is considering changes to stress tests, which could impact the affordability criteria and potentially allow buyers to borrow more, but there is a limit to how much borrowing can increase. Overall, the housing market is facing challenges, but a crash is not imminent.

    • Discussions on potential mortgage lending rule changesPossible mortgage rule changes may not significantly impact many borrowers due to their financial situations and existing mortgage types, while the banks' financial health and profitability, along with rising house prices, contribute to their desire to lend more.

      There are discussions about potential changes to mortgage lending rules, including possibly increasing the number of high-value mortgages and the potential return of interest-only mortgages. However, these changes may not significantly impact many people as most borrowers do not go to the standard variable rate, and interest-only mortgains require a repayment plan. The banks' financial health and profitability, as well as rising house prices, may also contribute to the desire to lend more. However, building more houses to lower average house prices is not a simple solution, as it would require an enormous number of new homes, and new builds are often sold at a premium. Additionally, research suggests that low interest rates, not just supply and demand, have driven up house prices.

    • Caution in the Housing Market: Homebuyers and Homeowners AlertHomebuyers and homeowners should be cautious in the current housing market, avoid overpaying, consider locking in mortgage rates, and stay informed to secure the best deals.

      With the housing market experiencing a significant increase in prices due to low mortgage rates and high demand, it's crucial for both homebuyers and homeowners to be cautious. Homebuilders are taking advantage of the situation by constructing on large estates without depressing local house prices. However, this trend may not continue indefinitely, and inflation could cause home prices to rise even faster. Homebuyers should avoid overpaying for properties and consider locking in mortgage rates before they increase further. Homeowners with mortgages coming up for renewal should also explore their options now to secure a favorable rate. Mortgage rates have already started to rise from their record lows, and it's likely they will continue to do so. For example, the best 2-year and 5-year fixes for remortgages have increased from 2.27% and 2.56%, respectively, in February 2020 to 2.43% and 2.7% as of a few weeks ago. It's essential to stay informed and take action to secure the best possible deals in the current market conditions.

    • Energy Bills Projected to Significantly IncreaseExperts predict energy price caps could rise by another 50%, leading to higher bills for those on standard variable tariffs, but the uncertainty makes it difficult to decide whether to lock in fixed rates or wait.

      While base rates have been rising, leading to potential mortgage rate increases, the magnitude of these increases is expected to be incremental rather than drastic. On the other hand, energy bills are projected to significantly increase due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, making the decision to fix energy rates a more complex one. Experts predict energy price caps could rise by another 50%, leading to higher bills for those on standard variable tariffs. However, the uncertainty around these predictions makes it difficult for individuals to decide whether to lock in fixed energy rates or wait it out. It's essential to consider the circumstances and potential costs before making a decision. The energy market situation is separate from the mortgage rate situation, and both require careful consideration.

    • Energy suppliers offer fixed-rate tariffs to help customers lock in pricesMonitoring energy provider offers and securing fixed-rate deals can help consumers secure stability against potential price hikes

      Energy suppliers are offering fixed-rate tariffs to help customers lock in prices amidst rising energy costs. For instance, EON recently launched a 1-year fixed deal at £1,977 for existing customers, which was quickly snapped up due to the uncertainty over future price caps. However, new customers were offered a higher price of £3,158 for the same 1-year fix. These offers come with no exit fees if prices fall, making it a gamble for consumers. The key point is that keeping an eye on your energy provider's offers and taking advantage of such deals can help you secure stability and peace of mind against potential price hikes. It's also worth considering that as the weather starts changing and we become less reliant on heating, we might see more of these offers in the future. While the government has announced some measures to help with energy costs, it remains to be seen if they will provide more assistance in the upcoming budget.

    • Rising energy bills causing financial strainMany struggle with rising energy bills, smart meter errors a concern, council tax refunds may not fully offset costs

      The rising energy bills are causing financial strain for many people, and even those who can afford the increase may feel the pinch when unexpected expenses arise. The energy bills vary widely, and some people are paying significantly less than others. Those with smart meters may be concerned about potential billing errors and the possibility of being asked to pay back the difference. The council tax refunds, while welcome for some, may not offset the increase in energy bills for everyone. Overall, the rising energy costs are a significant concern for individuals and families, particularly for those who are already struggling financially. The conversation also touched on the suspicion that some people's reportedly low energy bills might be inaccurate, and the question of whether energy companies can come back for billing errors on smart meters was raised.

    • Discussing energy bills and savings, plus new Avios points opportunityRegularly check energy bills, save by adjusting thermostats, and earn Avios points for credit card spending

      Energy bills can vary greatly from household to household, with gas prices often being a significant contributor. A conversation about personal experiences highlighted the importance of checking bills regularly and being mindful of energy usage. Additionally, the discussion touched upon the potential savings from turning down thermostats and balancing heating in different rooms. Regarding Avios points, a new development is that Barclaycard customers can now earn Avios points for every pound spent on two new credit cards. While many, including the speaker, may hold large quantities of these points, it's essential to understand their value and potential uses, such as gifting them to others.

    • Barclaycard Introduces New Avios Credit Cards to Compete with American ExpressBarclaycard offers new credit cards with bonus Avios points for spending, competing with American Express. Customers can easily switch between free and paid versions to maximize rewards.

      Barclaycard is introducing two new Avios credit cards to attract customers and compete with American Express, which has dominated the market with its rewards program. The free version offers 5,000 Avios points for spending £1,000 in the first month, while the paid version offers 25,000 points for spending £3,000 in the first 3 months and one and a half points per pound spent. However, customers can easily cancel and switch to the free card after triggering the bonus points, making it an effective strategy to boost Avios points. The shift towards buy now pay later options and the popularity of American Express have made it challenging for credit card providers to attract new customers, especially younger generations.

    • Maximizing Financial Gains with Rewards Credit Cards and CryptocurrencyUse rewards credit cards wisely by paying off balances in full and maximizing point value. Cautiously consider using cryptocurrency for large transactions due to market volatility.

      Using rewards credit cards, like Avios, can be a smart financial move if used responsibly. However, it's crucial to ensure that you can pay off the balance in full every month to avoid accruing high-interest debt. The pandemic has affected the spending patterns of many, leading to a decrease in Avios collection and usage. While Avios can be used for various purchases, including flights and even sandwiches, it's essential to consider the value of each point to maximize the benefits. A recent trend involves using cryptocurrency for large transactions, such as buying property. However, it's not recommended for every situation, especially for large sums like $1,000,000 plus, due to the volatility and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market. Overall, using rewards credit cards and cryptocurrency for transactions requires careful planning and consideration to ensure financial gains rather than losses.

    • Handling large sums of money in crypto: Risks and complexitiesPrice volatility, lack of protection, and potential company insolvency pose significant risks when dealing with large sums of money in cryptocurrency. Consult a specialist solicitor and ensure legitimacy before proceeding.

      Handling large sums of money in cryptocurrency comes with significant risks and complexities that most people should avoid. The price volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin can result in substantial financial losses, and there's a lack of a higher authority to appeal to if something goes wrong. Furthermore, transferring large sums of money using decentralized crypto networks can be cheap and easy but comes with the risk of the company backing the digital currency not having the necessary funds to pay out when needed. If you're considering accepting or transferring a large sum of money in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to consult with a specialist cryptocurrency solicitor and ensure that the reasons for doing so are legitimate. For most people, the risks and complexities outweigh the benefits, and it's generally safer to stick with the existing financial system.

    • Weighing the Costs and Risks of CryptocurrenciesCryptocurrencies have benefits but also costs and risks, including higher transaction fees than foreign exchange specialists. Consider these factors before investing or transacting in crypto. For questions or comments, contact This is Money at editor@thisismoney.co.uk, @thisismoney, or thisismoney.co.uk/forward/podcast.

      While cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin offer potential benefits, they also come with risks and costs that may outweigh the advantages. For instance, converting crypto into real currency involves transaction fees that can be higher than using a foreign exchange specialist. Therefore, it's essential to consider these factors before making a decision to invest or transact in cryptocurrencies. Additionally, if you have any questions or comments regarding cryptocurrencies or any other financial matters, feel free to reach out to the team at This is Money by emailing editor@thisismoney.co.uk, tweeting @thisismoney, or visiting their website at thisis money.co.uk/forward/podcast. If you have specific crypto-related queries, send them to editor@thisismoney.co.uk with the subject line "crypto questions." And don't forget to rate and subscribe to their podcast on iTunes to help others discover their content.

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    Current Housing Crisis and Demand: An examination of the U.S. housing shortage, with insights from the National Association of Realtors. Understanding the gap between demand and supply and its impact on home prices.

    Mortgage Rate Trends: Analysis of historical and current mortgage rates, emphasizing the potential benefits of refinancing in a fluctuating rate environment.

    Strategy for Today’s Homebuyers: Discussing the wisdom behind "marry the house, date the rate," and how this approach can benefit homebuyers in the current market. The emphasis on securing a home at today's prices and refinancing when rates are more favorable.

    Buydown Strategy Explained: Introducing the 'buy down' strategy as a way to secure lower rates in the initial phase of a mortgage, effectively getting 'tomorrow’s rate today.'

    Personalized Mortgage Guidance: Emphasizing the importance of understanding individual options in home buying and mortgage strategies. Offering personal advice and assistance to listeners.

    Takeaways:

    Market Predictions: Insights from market experts on the future of home values and mortgage rates.

    Customized Homeownership Strategies: Encouraging listeners to explore their options, with a reminder of the significance of homeownership and the importance of being informed.


    This episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast offers a blend of expert advice, market analysis, and practical strategies for navigating the real estate market's current challenges and opportunities.


    Kevin Martini | NMLS 143962 | Certified Mortgage Advisor | Martini Mortgage Group at Gold Star Mortgage Financial Group, Corporation | NMLS # 3446 | 507 N Blount St, Raleigh, NC 27604 | (919) 238-4934 | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | Kevin@MartiniMortgageGroup.com | Equal Housing Lender

    Real Estate Jerky Daily: Analyzing the Surge in Housing Starts and Permits

    Real Estate Jerky Daily: Analyzing the Surge in Housing Starts and Permits

    In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, hosts Mike Kelly and Ed Parcaut delve into the latest market updates in the real estate industry. They discuss the surge in housing starts, the optimism among builders as well as the challenges faced by millennials in the home buying process. The hosts also touch on the impact of interest rates on loan investments and offer valuable insights for both homebuyers and real estate agents. Tune in for a comprehensive overview of the current real estate landscape and gain expert perspectives on navigating the dynamic market.

    Follow Ed on all social media outlets @EdParcaut

    Need more information? Please visit https://www.edparcaut.com

    #RealEstateJerkyDaily #MarketUpdate #HousingStarts #Construction #HomeBuying #Millennials #RealEstateEducation #MortgageTips #HomeBuyingProcess #HousingMarkets #InterestRates

    Contract Cancellations & the Housing Market Reset

    Contract Cancellations & the Housing Market Reset
    The Fed’s relentless effort to stomp out inflation is having a huge impact on one of the nation’s biggest builders. KB Homes reported a homebuyer cancellation rate of 68% in December. And the “housing market reset” isn’t over yet. Although the latest inflation reports show that inflation is subsiding, the cost of a home is still too high for many buyers.
     
    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.
     
    Inflation is Slowly Decreasing
     
    A report on the Consumer Price Index shows a decline of .1% in December with an annual rate of 6.5%. (1) It’s the lowest rate of inflation we’ve seen in more than a year, and a big drop from a peak of 9.1% last summer. Lower oil prices accounted for most of the latest decline.
     
    When you remove prices for fuel and food, the monthly core rate of inflation was .3% with an annual rate of 5.7%. According to MarketWatch, there were few negatives in the CPI report, although the cost of housing is still rising. The report shows the annual cost of shelter at a 40-year high of 7.5%. And those high prices are scaring a lot of potential buyers.
     
    Surge in Contract Cancellation Rates
     
    For KB Home, the Q4 cancellation rate of 68% was almost double what it was in the third quarter. And much more than that compared to a year earlier when it was just 13%.
     
    The last time the cancellation rate was anywhere near that level was at the beginning of the pandemic, but even then it was around 40%. A Fortune article says that, historically, the cancellation rate for builders has only gone as high as 47%. (2)
     
    The data varies from builder to builder and metro to metro. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the Southwest and Texas experienced high cancellation rates of 45% and 39% respectively. Zonda’s chief economist Ali Wolf tweeted recently that the cancellation rate in Phoenix hit 70%.
     
    Based on data from John Burns, the nationwide contract cancellation rate was 25.6% in October. That’s up from 7.9% in October of last year. 
     
    “Conditions Remain Challenging”
     
    KB Home said in a statement: “Current conditions remain challenging. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation, together with an uncertain economy, have made homebuyers more cautious since the middle of last year.” That’s putting affordability out of reach for many people. Others may be hoping that home prices will go lower in the months to come. 
     
    For many buyers, it’s not a choice to cancel. They may have signed a contract and paid their deposit before the home was built, and then with construction delays, and a steady increase in mortgage rates, are finding out they no longer qualify for a loan. 
    Unfortunately, for some, that means the loss of an earnest money deposit, although a survey of 100 builders by John Burns indicates that most builders will return that deposit.
     
    For buyers who don’t get their money back, there’s not much they can do about it. Florida attorney Craig Rothburd says: “Everything in these agreements is drafted in favor of the developer.” That includes a warning that they could lose their deposit if they back out.
     
    Housing Market “Reset” Continues
     
    The situation has left home builders with a lot of inventory, and a lot of strategizing to reduce that inventory. Many are helping buyers by offering mortgage rate buydowns instead of price cuts. KB Home says it is very cautious about price cuts because it doesn’t want to spook buyers who are already under contract. If they think there’s a cheaper option, it could lead to more cancellations. 
     
    The Federal Reserve sees the current housing market situation as a “reset” to bring demand in line with supply, along with lower home prices. Higher mortgage rates typically push home prices lower, which has started to happen, but home prices are still too high for many homebuyers. And lower-priced homes are in short supply.
     
    A return to lower mortgage rates could help but with the current fight against inflation, they are expected to remain in the 6% range for this year. The increase has added about a $1,000 to a typical monthly mortgage payment. According to The National Association of Homebuilders, the monthly payment on a $450,000 new home rose from $1,925 at the beginning of 2022 to $2,923 for the same home by the end of the year. (4) 
     
    New Home Affordability Weakens
     
    That has substantially reduced the number of households that can afford to buy a median-priced new home. NAHB drew a comparison. It says that a mortgage rate of 3.22% is affordable for 34% of U.S. households. When that rate goes up to 6.42%, which is about where it is now, just 22.3% of households can afford that home. And, when the mortgage rate goes above 7% like it did in October, only 20.3% of households earn enough to qualify for a loan. At that level, you’d need an income of almost $150,000. 
     
    Always keep in mind that reports like these are averaging the results for the nation as a whole. Sub-markets will vary, and many of them are still affordable. If you want to learn more about some of those more affordable markets, please visit newsforinvestors.com. You’ll find data on some of the strongest rental and growth markets across the nation. You’ll also have access to experienced brokers and property managers in those markets. It’s free to join and free to access all that information.
     
    Thanks for listening!
     
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