Podcast Summary
Brexit promises unfulfilled: Despite claims of Brexit success, NHS waiting lists are high, net migration is up, education funding hasn't increased, real wages are falling, food prices are rising, and economy is forecasted to underperform. Majority of people now believe Brexit was a mistake.
The promises made during the Brexit campaign three years ago have not materialized as expected. The NHS waiting lists are at an all-time high, net migration is higher than before, education funding has not increased significantly, real wages are falling, food prices have risen, and the economy is forecasted to perform worse than other advanced nations this year. Despite these realities, some politicians continue to claim that Brexit has been a success. However, polling shows that a majority of people in the UK now believe that Brexit was a mistake, including a significant number of leave voters. This shift in public perception may reflect a growing awareness that the relationship between promises made by politicians and the reality of their implementation has fundamentally changed.
Brexit's Negative Impact on UK Economy Perceived as Failure: Despite gov assurances, Brexit's negative economic impact on UK is perceived as a failure. Business investment declining, trading status diminished, and unfavorable EU agreements weighing down the Conservative Party.
The UK's departure from the EU, or Brexit, is perceived as a failure by the public despite government assurances that patience is required due to external factors like the Ukraine war, global economic downturn, and COVID-19. Brexit's economic impact on Britain has been significant, with business investment on a long-term decline since the Brexit vote in 2016, and the UK's trading status diminished compared to pre-Brexit times. The imposition of trade barriers with the EU, particularly in goods and services, has had a substantial impact on the UK economy given its status as a big service trading economy. The Conservative Party, which championed Brexit as an electoral asset, risks being weighed down by this perception if they cannot present a clear and compelling case for why it's worth it. The government's regulatory freedoms and free ports have been mentioned, but they could have been implemented earlier. The UK has agreements with countries like Japan and Australia, but they contribute minimally to the GDP. The EU agreements are less favorable, and rollover deals are just replicating the previous arrangements. The Conservative Party needs to present a program or prospectus of ideas and policies that can be firmly attached to Brexit to avoid it becoming an anchor around their neck.
Brexit adds friction to UK-EU trade and business operations: Brexit has made trade and business between the UK and EU more difficult and costly, leading to decreased competitiveness and potential economic damage. Politically, there's little room for maneuver, but opposition parties may seize opportunities for incremental change.
Brexit has added significant friction to trade and business operations between the UK and EU, making it more difficult and costly for individuals and firms, particularly small ones. This has led to a decrease in competitiveness and potential economic damage. Politically, there is little room for maneuver on the issue, with both major parties reluctant to fully embrace a return to the EU or the single market/customs union. However, the failure of Brexit to deliver on its promises may provide opportunities for opposition parties to make incremental changes once in power. The overall impact is a gradual erosion of ties and competitiveness.
Brexit: Elite vs. Working Class Agendas: The Brexit vote was driven by differing agendas between elite Brexiteers and working class voters, resulting in a political dilemma and the formation of a conservative party that relies on a voter base with conflicting priorities.
The Brexit vote was driven by a desire for low taxes and deregulation among some elite Brexiteers, but many voters in areas like the "red wall" did not share this vision. This created a political dilemma, leading to a Faustian pact and the forging of a conservative party under Boris Johnson that relied on a voter base that would not support the deregulatory agenda. The UK now finds itself in a complex situation as the world becomes increasingly governed by economic regulatory blocks, and the government has yet to clearly define its place in this picture. The recent polls showing a 50-50 split on whether people want to rejoin the EU suggest a more nuanced view, with disappointment not necessarily equating to regret over the Brexit decision itself, but rather dissatisfaction with its implementation. Despite the challenges, there is still an opportunity for the government to turn things around and deliver on the promises made during the Brexit campaign.
Brexit's Impact on Small Businesses, Agriculture, and Staffing: Brexit brought challenges for small businesses, agriculture, and staffing, contributing to longer waiting lists and slower economic recovery, but the UK's fastest growing economy in EU in 2021 and 2022 is due to domestic policy errors, not just forecasts. Brexit led to increased food prices and more expensive goods due to tariffs and trade slowness.
Brexit has brought about challenges for small businesses, agriculture, and staffing in sectors like healthcare and social care, leading to issues in areas like harvesting, elder care, and NHS staffing. These challenges have contributed to longer waiting lists and a slower economic recovery compared to other advanced nations. However, it's important to note that the UK has been the fastest growing economy in the EU in 2021 and 2022 according to real data, not just forecasts. The root causes of the current economic struggles are domestic policy errors, such as tight fiscal and monetary policies and high energy costs. Immigration remains a significant issue, with a decline in older workers entering the labor market, but the adjustment from a high-immigration, low-productivity model to a higher-productivity, lower-immigration model is necessary and gradual. Brexit has led to increased food prices by an average of £210 per year, but food inflation is the same across the European Union. Therefore, the impact of Brexit on trade with the EU and resulting tariffs and trade slowness is a cost to consumers, leading to more expensive goods.
Brexit is a symptom of larger economic challenges: Despite Brexit, deep-rooted issues like public sector reform, planning, and the NHS require addressing for better lives, but recent political actions have eroded trust and made progress difficult
Brexit is just one piece of a larger puzzle when it comes to the economic challenges faced by the UK. While some argue that Brexit has made things better, many people feel their lives have become harder due to inflation, longer NHS waitlists, and falling wages. The speaker acknowledges that deep-rooted problems, such as public sector reform, planning issues, and the NHS, predate Brexit and require systematic addressing. The government's handling of these issues has led to a loss of trust and a sense that they have squandered their time in office. The speaker believes that reducing taxes and spending, as well as reforming public services, are necessary steps for improving people's lives, but acknowledges that recent political actions have made this more difficult. Ultimately, addressing these complex issues requires honesty, responsibility, and a commitment to long-term solutions.
Impact of House of Commons on Brexit negotiations: Lord Frost's role in shaping Brexit negotiations in the House of Lords led to significant changes, but the resulting protocol faced challenges and political pressure, leading to potential renegotiations or use of safeguard mechanisms.
The House of Commons is the heart of political life in the UK, and being a part of it can lead to significant impact on policy, as demonstrated by Lord Frost's role in shaping Brexit negotiations despite being in the House of Lords. However, the protocol signed during this time, which aimed to improve a previous deal, has faced challenges and political pressure, leading to an attempt to renegotiate or invoke the article 16 safeguard mechanism as a last resort. The protocol, while an improvement, has had burdensome customs and SPS arrangements and farming regulations that increased costs and discouraged trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The ultimate goal remains to find a workable solution that benefits all parties involved.
Brexit: The Role of Article 16 in Preventing Constitutional Turmoil: While Article 16 could have stabilized Brexit negotiations last year, it was not used. The speaker emphasizes the importance of using it as a foundation for future negotiations and the possibility of working and traveling in the EU despite challenges.
The use of Article 16 in the Brexit negotiations, which would allow the UK to unilaterally override parts of the Irish Sea border protocol, could have potentially stabilized the situation last year. However, it was not used, and the government is now negotiating for a tougher version of the protocol. The speaker does not regret the decision to sign the protocol, as it provided a foundation for future negotiations and avoided endless constitutional turmoil. To young people who feel that Brexit has limited their opportunities, the speaker emphasizes that while there may be challenges, it is still possible to work and travel in the European Union.
The UK's exit from the EU restricts its freedom of movement and opportunities, but grants it full democracy.: The UK's departure from the EU limits its mobility and access to EU opportunities, but empowers it to make its own laws and be a full democracy.
The freedom of movement within the European Union, which allowed people to work and travel freely among EU countries, has been restricted due to the UK's decision to leave the EU. This means that people can no longer enjoy the same level of mobility and opportunities they once had. However, the UK now has the ability to set its own laws and policies, making it a full democracy, unlike when it was a member of the EU. While this may come with challenges, it also presents a huge opportunity for the UK to determine its own future. For those who may be regretting the decision to leave the EU, the message is that the UK now has the power to shape its own destiny, even if it may not be perfect. The speaker, who has a deep understanding of European history and has lived and worked in various EU countries, emphasizes the importance of national sovereignty and self-determination.
Lord Frost on EU's Rigid Structure and Diversity: Lord Frost believes EU's success lies in diversity and competition, but rigid structure and uniformity are detrimental. UK's Brexit decision based on principles, long-term success uncertain, Johnson's chaotic leadership effective.
Lord Frost, a former Brexit negotiator for the UK, expressed his belief that the EU's rigid structure and attempts to impose uniformity on member states are not in the collective interest. He believes that Europe's success lies in its diversity and competition between different ways of doing things. He also noted that significant closer integration or weakening within the EU may be difficult for some member states, leading to a less effective EU. Lord Frost emphasized that the UK's decision to leave the EU was based on its principles and beliefs, and that it's too early to determine the long-term success of Brexit. He remains close to Boris Johnson but supports the current prime minister and hopes he can address the challenges facing the UK. Lord Frost also acknowledged that working with Johnson, despite his chaotic reputation, was stimulating and effective in achieving their goals.
The Challenges of Politics: Endless Criticism and the Search for the Perfect Politician: Politics is a complex and challenging field with endless criticism and the need for thick skin. Finding a leader who genuinely wants to do the right things and has the energy to convey their vision is essential.
Politics can be a challenging and wearing experience, especially for those who are new to the field. Lord Frost, a former conservative leader, expressed his concerns about the endless criticism and the search for the perfect politician. He emphasized the importance of finding a leader who wants to do the right things and has the energy to convey their vision. Regarding Brexit, Lewis discussed the difficulties journalists faced in reporting fairly on the issue without being labeled as biased. He expressed frustration with the idea that asking questions or pointing out facts was itself a sign of bias. Despite the challenges, both men acknowledged that the Brexit referendum had a significant impact on their careers and the media landscape. Overall, the conversation highlighted the complexities and frustrations of politics and the importance of perseverance and thick skin for those involved.
Communication and fairness during Brexit: Brexit brought a shift in communication, requiring empathy, understanding, and awareness of others' perceptions and emotional impact.
That during the Brexit years, there was a significant shift in the way people communicated and approached fairness. It was no longer just about doing the job correctly and being fair in the traditional sense, but also about anticipating how others might perceive the situation. This required a new level of empathy and understanding, as well as a heightened awareness of the potential emotional impact of words and actions. This gear change has been a challenging and ongoing experience, and one that continues to present complexities in our current political landscape.
