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    Jack Smith on How r/WallStreetBets is Beating Wall Street - From the Archive

    enJune 22, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Exploring pseudonymous platforms for unique insightsLearn from diverse perspectives and feedback, even in pseudonymous settings, for valuable insights and growth

      Exploring pseudonymous platforms can provide unique insights into people's thoughts and feedback, even if it includes negative comments. Jack Smith, a successful entrepreneur and podcast guest, shared his experience attending Apex, a digital masquerade party, where he encountered various reactions, both positive and negative, towards himself and others. He emphasized the value of knowing what's truly on people's minds, even if it may be harsh or unconventional. The episode also touched upon Jack's entrepreneurial journey, including his successful exit from Vungle and the lessons learned from a failed startup. Overall, the discussion highlights the importance of embracing diverse perspectives and feedback, even in a pseudonymous setting.

    • Insights from HubSpot's 2024 State of Marketing report and predictions on identity separationStay informed on marketing trends, optimize strategies, and consider privacy implications with the potential separation of real and online identities.

      As technology and marketing trends continue to evolve at a rapid pace, staying informed is crucial for businesses to adapt and thrive. The HubSpot 2024 State of Marketing report provides valuable insights from thousands of marketing professionals on effective strategies and emerging trends. Additionally, Balaji, a thought leader, predicts the separation of real identity from work and social media identities due to privacy concerns and potential negative consequences of online actions. This concept, called "splitting," could significantly impact how we communicate and present ourselves in various aspects of life. The sale of Instagram, negotiated via text message, highlights the importance of staying updated on industry news and trends. To learn more about optimizing marketing strategies, privacy, and personalization, access the HubSpot State of Marketing report at hubspot.com/stateofmarketing.

    • Forming deep connections in the digital ageDespite physical boundaries, deep connections can be formed online and are just as meaningful and impactful as traditional friendships

      The power of connections in our lives, whether formed online or offline, can transcend physical boundaries and traditional definitions of friendship. People can form deep connections with individuals they've never met in person, and these relationships can be just as meaningful and impactful as those formed through face-to-face interactions. This concept was predicted decades ago in a book called "True Names," which described a future where people's true identities hold immense power. Balaji S. Srinivasan, a futurist, has made similar predictions about the future of technology and society, often focusing on radical shifts rather than incremental changes. One example of this phenomenon can be seen in the early days of the Silk Road, a multibillion-dollar enterprise where employees were only identified by usernames and communicated anonymously. Despite the lack of physical interaction, these virtual workplaces could be harmonious and effective. The ability to form meaningful connections with others, regardless of physical proximity, is a powerful aspect of modern life that continues to evolve.

    • Making Money in the Background of Online AdvertisingAd tech companies like Taboola and Vungle generate substantial revenue by providing small ads at the bottom of articles, keeping a portion for themselves, and paying the rest to publishers. Understanding customer needs and pivoting ideas is crucial for success in this industry.

      Ad tech companies like Taboola and Vungle, which operate in the background of the online advertising industry, can generate significant revenue despite being somewhat misunderstood and undervalued. These companies make money by providing small thumbnail ads at the bottom of articles, which direct users to articles and sometimes result in sales. Taboola, for instance, reported $1 billion in revenue, keeping only 35% of it, while paying out the rest to publishers. Their profitability, coupled with the massive size and importance of the online advertising industry, creates a mystique around these businesses. Zack and Jack find this industry intriguing due to its potential for substantial revenue, even though raising venture capital for ad-focused businesses can be challenging. Zack and Jack's conversation also touched upon their experiences at Angelpad, where they learned the importance of understanding customers' challenges and pivoting their business ideas accordingly. Zack shared an example of their failed attempt to create a cross-platform app store with video previews, which led them to try selling a user acquisition solution. Despite receiving positive feedback, they had no sales. This experience reinforced the importance of understanding customer needs and the value of direct communication.

    • Listening to customer feedback and trusting instinctsExperienced experts may challenge beginners, but listening to customer needs and trusting instincts can lead to innovative business ideas and success.

      You should listen to customer feedback and trust your instincts when developing a business idea. The founders of an app startup shared their experience of developing an in-app advertising solution. They discovered that potential customers were expressing interest in the idea but not signing up. Through serendipitous encounters, they refined their concept and received significant financial commitments from interested parties. However, they faced skepticism from an industry veteran who questioned their lack of experience and knowledge in advertising. Despite this, the founders stood firm in their belief in their idea and continued to develop it. They learned that experts may be knowledgeable about current practices, but beginners can bring fresh perspectives and innovative ideas for the future. The success of their company, which provided a significant portion of revenue to app publishers, demonstrates the importance of listening to customer needs and trusting your instincts in business.

    • Value-driven advertising: Beyond clicks and impressionsAdvertisers prioritize sales and revenue over clicks or impressions. Performance-based pricing models like CPI can be more effective than CPM for meeting their needs.

      The value advertisers seek goes beyond clicks or impressions. They are primarily interested in generating sales and revenue. The traditional CPM (cost per thousand impressions) model in advertising is not sufficient for meeting their needs. Instead, CPI (cost per install) or other performance-based pricing models can be more effective. This shift in focus towards value-driven advertising can be observed in various industries, not just mobile apps. The key is to understand the advertiser's core objective and provide a solution that caters to it effectively. The discussion also touched upon the limitations of email marketing as an advertising platform due to its closed tracking capabilities and smaller reach compared to open platforms like Taboola. However, the potential value of email subscribers should not be underestimated, as the quality of the audience can significantly impact the success of an advertising campaign.

    • A friend's encouragement led to discovering Clubhouse, an addictive audio-based social media platformDespite initial skepticism, Clubhouse's unique features and potential rewards led to significant growth and a $1 billion valuation

      Identifying the next big mobile app can be challenging, as it often comes along only once in a while. This was the case with Clubhouse, an audio-based social media platform that some initially dismissed as insignificant. A friend, Narendra, encouraged the speakers to give it a try despite their initial skepticism. Clubhouse gained traction during the pandemic when people were looking for digital solutions to connect with others. The platform's simplicity and unique features, such as audio-only conversations and the ability to drop in and out of rooms, proved to be addictive for some users. Despite initial doubts, Clubhouse has seen significant growth, raising funds at a $1 billion valuation within a year of launching. The speakers' experiences with Blab, a similar platform that failed to gain traction, made them hesitant to believe in Clubhouse's potential. However, the asymmetric bet argument, where the potential rewards of success outweigh the risks of failure, ultimately convinced them to reconsider. Clubhouse's success shows that even jaded perspectives can be changed, and that it's important not to underestimate the potential of new technologies.

    • Clubhouse's growth limited due to lack of user-invites and ephemeral contentClubhouse struggles to keep users engaged due to limited user base and fleeting content. Success relies on creating high-interest, real-time content.

      While apps like Clubhouse have the potential to bring people together and create new connections, their growth and stickiness are limited because users aren't bringing their own friends to the network. Additionally, the ephemeral nature of the content on these apps makes it a challenge to keep users engaged and coming back. The comparison was drawn to Meerkat, another live streaming app that faced similar challenges. The success of these apps may also be influenced by the current market environment for funding. However, it's too early to call it a failure for Clubhouse as it's still trying to figure out how to keep users engaged and make the content more interesting and sticky. The comparison was made to other popular apps like YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook, which have large libraries of evergreen content to keep users engaged. The key is to be high on the interestingness scale and provide content that is interesting and engaging in real-time.

    • Challenges of Creating a Successful Live NetworkCreating a successful live network requires unique offerings and user engagement. Clubhouse faces challenges due to human interest and endurance. Valuation may be based on hype rather than solid fundamentals or data.

      Creating a successful live network, like Twitch, where users generate content in real-time, is incredibly challenging. The speaker argues that apps like Clubhouse, which rely on users' continuous engagement, face unique difficulties due to the limitations of human interest and endurance. The speaker also questions the valuation of Clubhouse, suggesting that it's based more on hype than solid fundamentals or data. They cite examples of other social media platforms, like YouTube and Instagram, that faced similar challenges but ultimately succeeded due to their unique offerings and user engagement. The speaker expresses skepticism about Clubhouse's potential to reach the massive valuations investors are projecting and warns against making investments based on hype alone.

    • Investing in social media apps: Unpredictable successDespite expertise, investing in social media apps carries risk. Unique value propositions can fade, and market trends can be unpredictable. Building networks and valuable connections is a better approach.

      Predicting the success of social media apps is a high-risk venture, even for industry experts and investors. The speakers discussed their experiences with investing in successful apps like WhatsApp, but also the potential for failure. They emphasized that there are better ways to ensure success than trying to be the next social media sensation. The speakers also shared their experiences with Clubhouse, highlighting its early value in building networks and making valuable connections. However, as the platform grew and became more accessible, the unique value proposition faded. Additionally, they touched on the recent phenomenon with GameStop's stock, where retail investors on Reddit banded together to artificially inflate the stock price, causing significant losses for hedge funds. Overall, the conversation underscored the unpredictability and volatility of the tech industry.

    • Behavior similar to dotcom bubble due to hype and speculationIndividuals using risky strategies, buying options with short expiration dates, and large buy orders can significantly impact stock prices, potentially leading to financial losses and market instability.

      The recent stock market behavior, specifically around GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks, can be compared to the dotcom bubble due to the massive buying of options and stocks based on hype and speculation. Many individuals, particularly those using platforms like Robinhood, are using high-risk strategies, buying options with short expiration dates, and putting in large buy orders to move the stock price. This behavior can significantly impact the stock price, even for companies with no material news, as those shorting the stock are forced to cover their positions, leading to a potential double pump effect. This trend is concerning, as it can lead to significant financial losses for individual investors and may result in market instability. It's essential to approach investing with caution and to do thorough research before making financial decisions.

    • Short selling stocks: unlimited risk, capped rewardShort selling stocks involves high risk and limited reward, necessitating special permissions. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust offers institutional investors Bitcoin exposure without exchange accounts, but comes with a premium.

      Short selling stocks comes with an unlimited risk, while the potential reward is capped. This is why special permissions are required to short a stock, as the potential loss can exceed the initial capital assigned to the trade. At the same time, large short positions can create a spiral effect, driving the price up as shorts rush to cover their losses. Another topic discussed was Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a derivative product that allows institutional investors to buy Bitcoin without the need to create an account on cryptocurrency exchanges. The success of Grayscale has been significant, with over $24 billion in assets under management and holding over 3% of all Bitcoin. However, investors pay a premium for this convenience, with the trust trading at a higher price than the underlying Bitcoin holdings. The creators of Grayscale likely made substantial profits by facilitating this transaction and navigating the regulatory landscape.

    • VC Firm Andreessen Horowitz Expands into MediaVC firms like Andreessen Horowitz are diversifying beyond investment, entering media to control narrative and potentially profit.

      Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is expanding its reach into media, aiming to become a thought leader and potentially profit from it. This move, according to the speaker, is a smart one for Andreessen Horowitz, as they already have substantial funds and the media business doesn't need to be large to add value. Additionally, it allows them to control their narrative and not be dependent on traditional media outlets. This trend of VC firms offering additional services beyond investment is expected to continue, with examples including Tusk Ventures, which provides lobbying services and invests in startups. The speaker expresses excitement about this shift and disdain for gatekeeping in media.

    • VC firms offering additional services to startupsVC firms are now providing services like recruiting, saving startups time and resources, but founders should ensure these services are valuable to their business.

      Some venture capital firms are expanding their services beyond just investing money into startups. They are now offering additional services like recruiting, at cost, as part of their investment. This means startups get not one, but two benefits for the price of one. For instance, a firm might invest in a company and also handle its recruiting needs. This could be particularly attractive to startups, as they can save time and resources by having one less thing to manage. The speaker also mentioned that they have seen examples of successful startups, like MrBeast, who have partnered with such firms. However, it's important for founders to ensure that the services provided by these firms are actually valuable to their business, and not just an added marketing pitch.

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