Justifying Optimism

The most productive work you can do often looks like the laziest -- but it can be hard to accept that because of how the workplace has changed over the last 100 years. 

Every great idea can be taken too far. 

Take the notion that investors should ignore the short run.

It's important to recognize that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run effectively enough to ensure you can stick around for a long time.

I wrote letters to both of my kids the day before they were born. 

Here's what I wanted them to know about money. 

And even if you don't have, or want, kids, I think you'll find this helpful. 

Hacks are hard because shortcuts rarely exist. Prizes take time and effort.

The personal finance industry – filled with advice that sounds and feels good without moving the needle – needs to recognize this.

These aren’t fun hacks, but no one said this was easy.

Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished.

Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatable?

And maybe better yet: The way to get luckier is to find what’s repeatable.

The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what stories make sense to you but would seem crazy to others.

A few of the best and most insightful things I've read lately. 

Woodrow Wilson was the only president with a Ph.D. in political science.

He came to office having thought more about how a government functions than most before him or since.

One of his complaints was that too many people in government held the belief that it was a Big Machine: that once you set up a series of rules you could take your hands off the wheel and let the government run on its own forever. They viewed government like physics, with a set of customs and laws that required no updating or second-guessing because they were believed to be precise and perfect as they were.

Wilson thought that was wrong. He viewed government as being a living thing that adapted and evolved. 

I really don't care about politics. But he had a theory that I think is so important, and so applicable, to us ordinary people managing our money. 

Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe.

But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a “good thing,” not an obvious threat, its danger creeps into your life unnoticed.

Take intelligence.

How could someone possibly be too intelligent? How do you get to a point where you realize you could have been more successful if you had been a little dumber?

Let me share three reasons why.

And if you're looking for another podcast to listen to, check out The Rundown by my friends at Public.com. It's a quick five-minute listen that gets you all caught up on the latest in the stock market, the economy, and in crypto. Hope you enjoy it. 

This episode discusses my take on what you should pay attention to when reading history. 

There’s a quote I love from writer Kelly Hayes who says, “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history.”

It’s so true. History’s cast of characters changes but it’s the same movie over and over again.

To me, the point of paying attention to history is not the specific details of certain events, which are always random and never repeat; it’s the big-picture behaviors that reoccur in different eras, generations, and societies.

“What if instead of being on the brink of disaster, we’re on the cusp of a better world?”

What Could Go Right? is the podcast of The Progress Network, an "idea movement for a better future. The Progress Network examines issues like population growth, the environment, public health, the future of work, international relations, and the economy - all through the lens of global progress.

Without succumbing to Pollyanna-ism, Zachary Karabell and Emma Varvaloucas, co-hosts of What Could Go Right? demonstrate that optimism can be put to work for achieving a better future.

"It's funny, if you talk to a lot of our network members, they're fairly allergic to the term, said Emma Varvaloucas, Executive Director of The Progress Network. "We try not to over-use the term because it has such a bad rap, generally. Optimists are viewed as stupid or sticking their heads in the sand - not that I think that; I think optimists are extraordinarily useful for the world."

A goal of The Progress Network is to counteract negative, pessimistic outlooks and media coverage of global topics. The podcast amplifies research, thinking and voices that point to a better future, instead of a worse one.

"It's less that I am convinced that the future will be better or that things are good than I am convinced that we are all responsible for making it so," stated Zachary Karabell, Founder of The Progress Network. "The future is unknown and we're all daily responsible for creating it. In so far as you believe, in a fatalistic way, that the future is written and that it's writing is negative, I think that's a recipe for individual and collective apathy."

In this episode of MetaPod we discuss the objectives of The Progress Network with Zachary and Emma. They explain how The Progress Network is building a foundation for alternative approaches to public discourse and engagement on important issues. We also hear examples of this approach and how it differs to that of mainstream media. Examples of what can go right include achievements in global health, stability of international relations, and unprecedented levels of social spending by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

NB: This conversation was recorded on February 16th, 2022 - about one week before Russia invaded Ukraine.

About Zachary Karabell

Zachary Karabell is the founder of The Progress Network. He is an author, columnist, and investor and president of River Twice Capital. Previously, he was Head of Global Strategies at Envestnet, a publicly traded financial services firm. Prior to that, he was President of Fred Alger & Company. In addition, he ran the River Twice Fund from 2011–2013, an alternative fund that focused on sustainability.

Karabell is a Contributing Editor for Wired and for Politico. He is a frequent contributor to Time and The Washington Post and previously wrote “The Edgy Optimist” column for Slate, Reuters, and The Atlantic. He is a LinkedIn Influencer and a commentator on CNBC, Fox Business, and MSNBC, and contributes to such publications as The Guardian, The Atlantic, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs.


About Emma Varvaloucas

Emma Varvaloucas, an editor and writer with over a decade’s experience in nonprofit media, is executive director of The Progress Network. She was the executive editor of Tricycle: The Buddhist Review, the premier publication covering Buddhist news, culture, and Buddhism’s new home in the West, where she oversaw editorial strategy and production as well as the release of several new ventures, including Buddhism fo

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A podcast all about the power of optimism. Life is Good co-founders Bert and John Jacobs sit down with musicians, athletes, business leaders and inspiring folks of all kinds to help shift the cultural conversation away from the negative and focus together with listeners on growing the good. Each conversation is both playful and deep, as each guest brings their own style of positive energy and real wisdom to the table. Listeners hear real, unfiltered conversations about the role optimism plays in their lives. And each episode ends with a dramatic ping pong showdown in which the winner gets to donate to their charity of choice. New episodes are available Thursday mornings. The debut episode featuring Ringo Starr premieres June 13th. Behind-the-scenes are available on Life is Good’s YouTube.