K ꓘ 113 - News and Mail

Keep or Kut

Springs stats aren't everything, but they are all we've got. So Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) Look at some over- and under-performers through the first couple weeks of games and determine if they are Keeping the insight from that performance or Kutting it.

Timestamps:

4:34 - Our approach to spring stats

7:50 - Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers defense

15:13 - Edward Cabrera is finding the zone

22:21 - Eloy Jimenez looks great…if he can stay on the field

26:47 - Is Paul Goldschmidt finally old?

33:33 - Andy Pages is Spring King

40:01 - Has Francisco Alvarez jumped a tier among C?

48:57 - lightning round! The top 5 SP in FIP, Byron Buxton’s triples, Matt Manning’s homers

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) try to find potential future keeper values based on 2024 ADP. They used FantasyPros to navigate ADPs around the industry and landed on a slew of names - both pitchers and hitters - to target in your keeper startups. 

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Timestamps

8:00 - Pete starts things off with Tarik Skubal, who he believes that - if everything goes right - could be a top 3 SP.

13:43 - Chad thinks Corey Seager could provide some keeper value for 2025, even though he is already a late second/early third round player.

16:19 - Pete is back on the Jazz Chisholm Jr. train. All aboard!

19:26 - Chad sees Cole Ragans climbing draft boards and wants you to get in now to keep the 2025 keeper price lower.

22:30 - Have people cooled on Shane Bieber too much? Pete is a belieber, and the velocity is up!

26:43 - One year ago, Jordan Walker as the hottest commodity on the draft market. Now? It feels like people have forgotten about him. Chad likes the potential long-term cost.

30:39 - Pete is excited to draft Jarren Duran in his keeper leagues, especially considering his post-150 cost.

33:33 - Chad wants Riley Greene at his current cost and thinks there could be a lot of future value given his current 164 spot on FantasyPros ADP.

37:28 - Byron Buxton is essentially free yet is still just 30 years old and has immense power.

44:34 - Robert Stephenson is a little banged up right now, but it does feel like he will inevitably be the closer in Los Angeles.

48:11 - Gavin Lux is interesting at his cost to Pete, Chad is less enthused.

54:08 - Drew Rasmussen will miss most of the season, so he is basically free in drafts… get him! His keeper value for 2025 could be immense.

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Keep or Kut

 With draft season underway, Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) are looking at some of their early draft results and wondering why certain players are where they are. Is Chad too low on Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Why is everyone sleeping on Jordan Lawlar? Plus four more questions about four more players.

Timestamps:

6:04 - Is the hype too high on Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

19:14 - Are we waiting too long on Marcell Ozuna (and other Util-only bats for that matter)?

29:44 - Is Nolan Jones just the latest guy we are overdrafting based on an unsustainable breakout?

39:59 - Have fantasy managers moved on too quickly from Jordan Lawlar?

47:20 - Should we have more faith in Robert Suarez?

56:08 - why are managers taking Jordan Montgomery so early?

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Keep or Kut

Chad and Pete take keeper questions live from PitchCon 2024.

Live from PitchCon, Pete and Chad are taking listener questions ahead of keeper league deadlines, including the Ottoneu keeper deadline on 1/31. They compare Justin Steele and Cole Ragans, look at fair prices for some star players, and answer questions about how the free agent pool and inflation factor into their keep or cut decisions.

Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) have to make some keeper decisions for their two listener leagues and are thinking about how to best value keepers in a draft league vs. auction league. ADP, player projections, and more come into play as they outline who they are keeping, what trades they made, and why. Why is Chad keeping Esteury Ruiz? How does Mookie Betts's keeper value compare to other players, given a 1st round price tag? What did it cost Pete to acquire Corbin Carroll?

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Timestamps

4:29 - How do we think about keeper values in drafts with round costs.

7:39 - What is the value in keeping a first-round Mookie Betts?

11:36 - Chad took three different approaches to value keepers and found three different results.

24:41 - Chad’s keepers for Listener League 2

31:15 - Thairo Estrada vs. Esteury Ruiz, case on both sides

35:31 - Pete’s keepers, and why Pete left off Jake Burger

42:16 - Breaking down the trades Pete and I made in League 2, starting with Chad moving Nick Lodolo and a 19th round pick for Kyle Harrison and a 21st

45:15 - Chad moved down from 3.10 to 4.5 to add Kerry Carpenter

48:06 - Pete gets the fifth pick in the draft, plus an 8th rounder and a 14th rounder, but had to give up Kyle Bradish, Brayan Bello, Shane Baz, Kyle Manzardo

52:38 - Pete gets a 21st for Hunter Greene and Chad moves down a bit to get Alec Bohm

55:29 - Sneak peek of league 1 decisions and trades

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) talk all things Ottoneu First Year Auctions. From what players Pete and Chad might want to be targeting, to their favorite formats on Ottoneu, this episode serves as a nice starter kit for first year auctions. 

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Timestamps

3:16 - The Michael Brantley Episode!

8:55 - Starting up an Ottoneu league: format options, settings, and scheduling an auction

20:08 - First year auction strategies

28:41 - Who are Pete and Chad targeting to provide their team with some financial flexibility because the price seems right? Chad starts things off with Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino. 

35:52 - Pete isn't so excited about any particular player in this regard, but he wants to be opportunistic at attacking particular tiers for certain positions. 

43:23 - Who are the pitchers Pete wants to attack? One of the top 7!

45:53 - Chad seems to have some tepid interest in Carlos Rodón to bank some value in auctions. 

50:55 - Chad shares his Top 20 overall rankings for Ottoneu points leagues, and a conversation about the tiers follows. Is Mike Trout still a top 20 player? 

1:00:58 - Shohei Ohtani... how are we valuing him? Is being UTIL-only too detrimental to roster construction? 

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) look through NFBC ADPs to find players who you should be picking for your keeper leagues. These six players may or may not be good values at their ADP for redraft, but they are primed to breakout and be more valuable next year than they are this year, making them ideal keeper league targets. Plus, they ask some questions based on recent MLB transactions.

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Timestamps

3:22 - News and Notes Questions, starting with Mitch Garver to the Mariners and what that does to his C ranking

10:51 - If Yuki Matsui is the full-time closer for the Padres, does he move into your top 15 closers?

16:57 - Stop worrying about how good a team your closers are on - it doesn’t really matter.

23:00 - Are the Jays a team you can stream SP against?

27:44 - Looking at guys who are keeper league values at current NFBC ADP, and Chad sees one last chance to buy into Vlad Guerrero, Jr.

34:23 - Pete wants in on Oneil Cruz, Chad is more cautious until he starts to look at the alternatives at SS

43:50 - Chad tries to get Pete feeling more positive about Mastaka Yoshida

52:16 - Pete tries to get Chad to look beyond Edward Cabrera’s walks

1:02:50 - Carlos Rodón will be moving up boards in the spring

1:07:06 - The price on Eloy Jiménez has dropped far enough to flip the script from bust to value

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@chadyoung) discuss the recent mock auction they were a part of on Couch Managers. The conversation kind of turns into a bit of a discussion about position depth this upcoming draft season, particularly at OF, SP, C, and 3B.

Check out the results of the mock here: https://www.couchmanagers.com/auctions/?auction_id=656

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Timestamps

6:39 - Discussion about the mock auction begins! What stood out?

7:52 - Chad is not a fan of a $46 Corbin Carroll

13:30 - Outfield feels pretty bad, thin, and top-heavy this draft season

16:20 - Catcher, on the other hand? Weirdly deep!

23:19 - Chad spent $57 on the (second) newest Dodger - Shohei Ohtani

32:11 - Pete focused on pitching, but Chad wasn't convinced it was a great rotation. What's the deal with SP this year?

41:51 - What about 3B? How is that looking going into draft season after last year's panic over the position?

47:18 - Finally, how did middle infield look?

50:35 - Zero MLB experience, but pricy players: $18 Jackson Holliday, $36 Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $13 Wyatt Langford, and $14 Jackson Chourio. Of those four, who would you want the most?

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Keep or Kut - Chad (@chadyoung) is joined by two guests to talk inflation in keeper leagues. Justin Vibber, creator of the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, and Adam Scharf, who recently wrote a paper on inflation in Ottoneu, go from 101 (what is inflation and how does it impact leagues) to some more nuanced discussion of how thinking on inflation needs to evolve so we can be smarter fantasy players.

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Timestamps

8:10 - What is inflation and how does it impact both auctions and drafts in keeper leagues?

14:57 - Inflation can change who you think about as a keeper.

27:12 - The benefits and risks of trying to predict what your leaguemates will do.

37:13 - The risk of over- vs underestimating inflation.

44:29 - Adam recaps his paper and discusses the implications if we are under-calculating inflation.

58:19 - Is there an inflation curve across the value spectrum?

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Keep or Kut / On The Corner

Nick Pollack reviews Chad Young's 2024 Mock Draft. Chad picked from the 12th spot in this draft

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Full Draft Board

"League" info:
Standard Yahoo H2H Category 5x5 scoring format
12-teamer, 23 rounds
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 UTIL, 9 P, 4 Bench
One-Way Ohtani (two separate players for DH and SP)

Chad's picks:
1 - Shohei Ohtani (Hitter)
2 - Spencer Strider
3 - Bo Bichette
4 - Zac Gallen
5 - Matt McLain
6 - Jordan Walker
7 - Eury Perez
8 - Emmanuel Clase
9 - Josh Naylor
10 - Riley Greene
11 - Jorge Soler
12 - Alexis Diaz
13 - Shane Bieber
14 - Wyatt Langford
15 - Isaac Paredes
16 - Kyle Harrison
17 - Braxton Garrett
18 - Kenley Jansen
19 - Trevor Rogers
20 - Ricky Tiedemann
21 - Justin Turner
22 - Esteury Ruiz
23 - Francisco Alvarez

Hosts: Nick Pollack | Chad Green
Producer: Adam Howe
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