Macro Update with Mark Noble and Horizons ETFs

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023.  Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable “hard landing”. When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, “What don’t we already know?”.  

Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade.

Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo.  Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally.

So, what don’t we already know?

As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.

On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the last.

For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/ 

Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream

Forstrong Global Insights

Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape. 

Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds. Meanwhile, our investment team has a thesis that may stretch minds: we are entering a new risk-taking cycle based on an entirely different set of macroeconomic conditions and investment leadership. As 2024 progresses, Forstrong forecasts recession fears will again recede, and aggressive rate cut expectations will be unwound. 

Tune-in to hear why shifts away from cash will lead to a big rotation into the cheap, cyclically sensitive and inflation hedging assets.

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Forstrong Super Trends - Macronova

Ask Forstrong - Inflation: Mission Accomplished

The US bond selloff over the last few years is on par with the largest ever in history. In this podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to discuss market performance and what “higher for longer” interest rates means for investors. While this new environment has dampened confidence and has everyone running into the perceived safety of cash, the reality is that cash rarely outperforms risk assets for extended periods. Meanwhile, several investment opportunities have now become more attractive, given lower valuations, higher yields and — given extremely negative sentiment — the potential for upside surprise to materialize.

In part 1, Rob Duncan sat down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind Artificial Intelligence and what impact it may have on the future

In part 2, Rob and Reza discuss the implications of AI from an investment perspective. Is this Dot Com 2.0? Will investors benefit from an unfolding capex cycle driven by AI? Are valuations on AI-related stocks justifiable?    

Tune in as they discuss the next phase of AI and where investors should direct their attention. 

Last month 2,600 tech industry professionals signed a petition led by Elon Musk and Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, to halt AI development until there was a clear understanding of its full implications. Although he did not sign the letter, Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “Godfather of AI”, resigned from Google to warn the world stating, "AI could be a greater threat to humankind than climate change". 

In this part 1 of this 2-part series, Rob sits down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind artificial intelligence and what impacts it may have for humans overall. Will we all be out of a job? When will it become sentient?

In part 2, Rob will speak with Reza again to discuss the implications of AI from a macro investing perspective.

It has been four long years since Forstrong last visited mainland China. In that time, the country faced a real estate collapse, technology crackdowns and more than 1100 days of brutal lockdowns. Given the size and scale of China’s influence on the global economy, their reopening is something that smart investors need to monitor.

After a month on the mainland Shibo Gu, Forstrong’s Research Analyst, sits down with Rob to talk about his firsthand experiences and Forstrong outlook on the awakening of the world’s second largest economy. Additionally, they discuss whether the recent Alibaba spinoffs are a positive for the sector and which emerging countries are best positioned to benefit from the reopening.

 Ask Forstrong: Postcard from China, Part 1

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Coming off a surprisingly resilient Q1, Global Equities staged a rally for a second quarter despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and renewed fears of another 2008 financial crisis. While US markets staged a late rally to pull ahead of Canada, International markets continue to be global leaders. In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Forstrong’s Lead PM, David Kletz, to hear about structural changes impacting global markets and why International and Emerging Market equities might have a leg up over their American counterparts. To top it off, David shares some macro insights into Japan and why a rally could be imminent.   

Cette semaine, nous avons un invité très spécial pour notre podcast "Global Thinking". Omar Rayes de Forstrong s'assoit une deuxième fois avec l'Honorable Clément Gignac.

Clément a eu une longue et brillante carrière dans les secteurs public et privé. Sur la scène internationale, il a présidé en 2012 le Conseil de l'agenda mondial sur la compétitivité (division du Forum économique mondial). Il est également membre associé de la Conference of Business Economists, un groupe d'éminents économistes mondiaux basé à Washington, D.C. Il est maintenant membre du Sénat du Canada.

De 2012 jusqu'à sa récente nomination à titre de sénateur indépendant, M. Gignac a occupé le poste d'économiste en chef chez iA Groupe financier. Il était le porte-parole du Groupe sur les questions économiques et présidait le Comité d'Allocation d'Actifs. Avant de se joindre à iA Groupe financier, M. Gignac a travaillé comme économiste et stratège pour de grandes institutions financières, notamment comme économiste en chef pour la Financière Banque Nationale de 2000 à 2008.

Clément est également un ami de longue date de la firme et a travaillé en étroite collaboration avec notre équipe de gestion de placements dans le passé.

Dans cette vidéo, Omar et Clément discutent de la récente hausse des taux de la FED, de l'effondrement de la banque SVB et des principaux facteurs macroéconomiques, notamment l'inflation et la perspective d'une récession.

This week we have a very special guest for our “Global Thinking” Podcast. Forstrong’s Omar Rayes sits down for a second time with the honorable Clément Gignac.

Clément has had a long and distinguished career in both the public and private sectors. On the international scene, he chaired in 2012 the Global agenda council on competitiveness (a division of the World Economic Forum). He is also an associate member of the Conference of Business Economists, a group of distinguished global economists based in Washington, D.C. He now serves as a member of the Senate of Canada.

From 2012 until his recent nomination as an independent Senator, Mr. Gignac held the position of Chief Economist at iA Financial Group. He was the Group’s spokesperson on economic matters and chaired the Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to joining iA Financial Group, Mr. Gignac worked as an economist and strategist for major financial institutions, including as Chief Economist for National Bank Financial from 2000 to 2008.

Clément is also a long-time friend of the firm and has worked closely with our investment management team in the past.

In this video, Omar and Clément discuss the recent FED rate hike, the collapse of SVB Bank, and key macroeconomic factors including inflation and the prospect for a recession.