MarketBeat Minute(2024-01-01)

Equity markets tried to rebound on Thursday, but the move was weak and short-lived. The S&P 500 gained about a half percent at the session's high but closed the day with a loss of 0.35%. The move may turn into a deeper rout today following the NFP report. If it aligns with labor data released this week, it will reaffirm the idea that the FOMC will keep interest rates higher for longer. In this scenario, the FOMC is on track to cut rates in 2023, but when and why are yet to be seen. As it is, the first cuts aren't likely until later in the year.

Next week starts peak earnings season, but don't get too excited yet. The reports will come out in dribbles until Friday, when reports from the big banks are due. The general expectation is that banks generate solid profits due to higher interest rates and can sustain capital returns. The question is how the consumer is holding up. If the banks reveal a weakened or weakening consumer, the sell-off in equities could gain momentum regardless of bank earnings.

Equity markets fell for the 2nd trading day in January, marking the start of what could become a significant contraction for the S&P 500. The index shows signs of topping below critical resistance with a growing consensus that January will be a hard month for mega-cap stocks. Names from Apple to Amazon are moving lower as investors shed holdings in overcrowded names to raise capital. The thought is that a rut in the first half will quickly lead to a market bottom and the next great entry point for index investors.

Among the signs of impending doom are the VIX and non-cyclical safe-haven stocks like the Consumer Discretionaries. Both move higher, indicating rising fear and a high probability of stock market correction. If the market can't regain traction soon, downward momentum could build in the broader market. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could correct as much as 20% or more with or without a recession.

Equity markets kicked off the 2024 trading year on a sour note, with the S&P 500 falling about 1% at the session low. The move is partly due to a downgrade for Apple that shaved more than 4.25% off of its price. Barclays downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing concerns about hardware sales centered on the iPhone. At the same time, the VIX advanced to show a bottom and a high potential for a market reversal. The combination of weak S&P action and rising VIX suggests a top has been hit for equities that may result in a deep correction.

The primary catalyst this week, aside from the turning of the year, will be the NFP report on Friday. The NFP is expected to align with the outlook for a soft landing and may get the S&P 500 back into rally mode. If not, the market is heading lower in the first month of the year, which points to a soft first half followed by a rebound in the second, just like in 2023.

It's the first trading week of the New Year, and all eyes will be on the data. The monthly labor market data is due over the week and may lead the market to a new high. Solid employment and wage gains will help clear the path to a soft landing, allowing the FOMC to start cutting rates early in the year. As it is, the market expects the first cuts by March.

Earnings season begins next week with reports from the big banks. The banks will likely report robust gains driven by high interest rates; the question is what condition the consumer is in. Consumer spending is the driving force of the US economy; a shock to the spending outlook will undercut the outlook for earnings and any rally that may form in the S&P 500.

Equities advanced on Thursday, extending the week's Santa Claus Rally to about 0.75%. The rally may continue on Friday, but it looks unlikely we'll see a new all-time high on the S&P 500 until next year. As robust as the outlook is for 2024, there are concerns that earnings growth will not be as good as forecasted and that the FOMC may tip the economy into recession. Because it takes 12 months or longer for FOMC policy changes to take full effect, the impact of rate hikes in the first half of 2023 are still working their way through the system and could cause a marked contraction in activity come January.

The question on every trader's mind is what will happen with the S&P 500 index on Tuesday when the new trading year starts. One risk is that enough traders will sit on the sidelines, waiting to see what happens, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In that scenario, downside momentum could build quickly, leading the market into a full-blown correction.

Equities advanced on Thursday, extending the week's Santa Claus Rally to about 0.75%. The rally may continue on Friday, but it looks unlikely we'll see a new all-time high on the S&P 500 until next year. As robust as the outlook is for 2024, there are concerns that earnings growth will not be as good as forecasted and that the FOMC may tip the economy into recession. Because it takes 12 months or longer for FOMC policy changes to take full effect, the impact of rate hikes in the first half of 2023 are still working their way through the system and could cause a marked contraction in activity come January.

The question on every trader's mind is what will happen with the S&P 500 index on Tuesday when the new trading year starts. One risk is that enough traders will sit on the sidelines, waiting to see what happens, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In that scenario, downside momentum could build quickly, leading the market into a full-blown correction.

Equity markets hovered near break even on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibilities for 2024. Among them is a rally. The outlook for earnings is growth with sequential acceleration throughout the year. Another is a recession. The FOMC policy is restrictive and yet to be fully seen in the data. The odds are high that consumer spending will be weak in the first half and may lead to a recession. This sets the market up to advance, provided the Q1 reporting season is good, or to fall if it isn't.

The next market-moving news for equities will come next week. The monthly jobs creation data is due and is expected to reveal persistent strength in the labor markets. In this scenario, the odds of a soft landing will grow and help to lift equities ahead of the Q1 reporting season. Calander Q1/fiscal Q4 reporting begins in two weeks with JPMorgan Chase. The bank is expected to grow revenue by 20% over last year and widen margin aided by higher interest rates.

Equity markets advanced on Tuesday in a day of light holiday week trading. The S&P 500 gained less than a percentage point but set a new two-year high and is on the way to retesting the all-time high soon. Equities will likely move higher this week in a Santa Claus Rally and could set a new all-time high before the New Year.

This week's action will be characterized by low volume. Traders and investors are taking a break, waiting to see what happens with the New Year, inflation and the Fed. There are no earnings reports and few economic releases, so politics and geopolitical tensions could drive a knee-jerk reaction should news develop. Oil is vulnerable to such a move; the price of WTI hit bottom with the FOMC pivot to a less hawkish stance and could be sent sharply higher, given a catalyst.

Equity markets closed out the week with a gain, making the 8th consecutive weekly increase for the S&P 500. The hope for FOMC rate cuts early in 2024 has driven the move, and this week's PCE price index aligned with the outlook. The index came in at 3.1%, slightly cooler than expected, suggesting the Fed's soft landing is fast approaching.

The question is if the economy will hit the ground running or crash through, and either scenario is unfavorable to equities. On the one hand, disinflation and deflation will lead to recession and on the other, consumer inflation remains hot for years with a risk that it will accelerate and drive the FOMC back into rate-hiking mode.

Santa Claus Rally or not, the S&P 500 is approaching its next major turning point. The index may continue higher and set new highs in 2023 or be contained by resistance. The following week could be telling, but investors should not read too much into holiday-week trading. The true test of the market will come in January.

Equity markets tried to rebound from Wednesday's unexpected selloff on Thursday but failed to regain the prior days' losses. The S&P gained 1% for the day but closed well off the highs for the week. The weekly pattern suggests a rising level of fear ahead of the PCE report, due out Friday. The PCE report is expected to confirm slowing inflation but at an insufficient pace to allow the FOMC to cut interest rates soon.

The S&P 500 price action shows resistance below the all-time high, a critical hurdle for the market. Given the proper catalyst, resistance at this level could lead to range-bound trading or a sharp correction. That catalyst could come soon, given the risk of inflation accelerating. Oil markets are already stabilizing after their correction, and ocean-going freight rates are through the roof on geopolitical concerns centered on the Red Sea.