Podcast Summary
Midwest summer weather 2021: Favorable weather conditions in the Midwest during summer 2021 have led to high yield predictions, despite some localized challenges like flooding and heat waves.
The weather conditions in the Midwest during the summer of 2021 have been largely favorable for crops, leading to high yield predictions. John Barranik, a meteorologist from DTN, discussed the overall good weather conditions, despite some challenges such as flooding and heat waves in certain areas. The USDA, Pro-Farmer tour, and DTN's own forecast all indicate high yields, particularly in Iowa and Minnesota, with yields of 209 bushels per acre and 203 bushels per acre, respectively. However, farmers are still in a guessing phase as the harvest season approaches and weather conditions in South America will become a key factor. Despite the stressors, the Midwest as a whole has experienced mostly good weather, avoiding the long stretches of heat and dryness that were expected during the La Nina conditions.
US crop conditions vs South America: While US crop conditions have been generally favorable, South America faces more concerning weather issues, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, which could impact global grain markets
The weather conditions in the US have been generally favorable for crop growth, with only a few localized issues in some areas. However, producers in certain regions, such as Ohio and parts of the Midwest, have faced challenges due to drier conditions. Meanwhile, the situation in South America is more concerning, with dry weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil leading to low soil moisture and potential delays in planting. The developing La Nina could further push back the start of the wet season rains, which are crucial for planting and growing crops in these regions. Producers and traders should keep a close eye on South America, particularly Brazil, as the situation develops and could impact global grain markets. Overall, the US crop conditions have been good, but there are still some questions regarding the timing and adequacy of rainfall in certain areas.
USDA crop report vs Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Despite USDA's record-breaking yield estimates, Pro Farmer Crop Tour reports significant yield variability, which could impact crop insurance payouts and commodity prices
The ongoing Pro Farmer Crop Tour is raising questions about whether the USDA's August crop report of record-breaking yields for corn and beans in states like Illinois will hold true. The tour has reported significant variability in yields, with some fields estimating up to 100 bushel swings from low to high. The final estimates from the tour on Friday will be closely watched by the market, as they could impact crop insurance payouts and prices for farmers who purchased protection. Additionally, concerns about a potential recession continue to loom over agricultural commodity prices until November. The weather, which has been unpredictable this year, also remains a factor, as conditions in South America and the Pacific Ocean can impact weather patterns in the Americas. Overall, the agricultural industry is facing several uncertain factors that could impact yields and prices in the coming months.
Election Impact: The election results and Federal Reserve actions in September will significantly impact the agricultural market, influencing economy, commodity prices, and interest rates. Farmers and producers should stay informed and consider risk management decisions.
The upcoming election and its potential impact on the economy, commodity prices, and interest rates will significantly influence the agricultural market in the coming months. The election results and the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly in September, will be crucial determinants of market volatility. Farmers and producers should stay informed and not overlook risk management decisions despite the busy harvest season. Opportunities for risk management and improved plans could arise within the next 60 days. For more information, visit www.blueriefinc.com or call 309-550-7213. Stay tuned for more insights on the agricultural market.
Agricultural markets trading ranges: Current agricultural markets, specifically corn and soybeans, are in quiet trading ranges with minimal price movement due to routine export sales and lack of significant news or direction. Farmers should focus on the bigger picture and avoid social media reports.
The agricultural markets, particularly corn and soybeans, are currently experiencing quiet trading ranges with minimal price movement due to a lack of significant news or direction. Export sales have been routine and smaller than expected, and the wheat market is facing harvest pressure and global price competition. Quality concerns for spring wheat and potential protein needs could provide some support. Farmers should focus on the bigger picture, such as crop supplies and their specific situations, and avoid being swayed by social media reports. For risk management and solutions, farmers can contact TotalFarmMarketing at 800-334-9779 or John H at TotalFarmMarketing.com.
Market volatility: Farmers in the Midwest should stay active and consider their options for storing or selling crops as market could remain volatile, potential weather concerns could provide support, and fall low may not have been reached yet.
This growing season in the Midwest is nearing its end, and farmers are encouraged to stay active and make decisions regarding their crops, as the market could remain volatile. Weather conditions, particularly for corn and beans, are currently not a major concern, but any dry or hot weather could provide support to the market. Producers should consider their options for storing or selling their bushels, as the basis level could potentially drop when large quantities of crops are moved around. John Barranik suggests that we may not have seen the fall low yet and advises farmers to be aggressive in their strategies. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all saw gains, while cattle and hog prices fell. Crude oil saw a small increase, and the Dow Jones finished down. The lifestyle market is under pressure once again. Farmers can listen to the full discussion on the Back Roads of Illinois podcast.