Podcast Summary
Democracy's challenges: Martin Wolf's series revealed unexpected elections and deep structural issues threatening liberal democracy in the UK, France, India, Mexico, South Africa, and the European Parliament. Encouraging signs came from India, but the European Parliament elections showed right-wing gains, and the US election could lead to autocracy.
Learning from Martin Wolf's series "Democracy's Year of Peril" is that liberal democracy faces significant challenges in the form of unexpected elections and deep structural issues. The series discussed the implications of elections in various countries, including the UK, France, India, Mexico, South Africa, and the European Parliament. Martin spoke with political thinkers like Raghuram Rajan, Robert Kagan, Anne Applebaum, and Fiona Hill. The most encouraging sign came from India, where Narendra Modi did not secure the landslide victory many had anticipated. However, the European Parliament elections showed that the right was making significant gains, which could lead to problems for the European Union. The US election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was identified as a decisive one, with Trump's supporters aiming to transform the United States from a democracy into an autocracy. Overall, the conversations highlighted that these challenges are deep-rooted and require urgent attention.
Democratic institutions and election unrest: The erosion of democratic institutions during close elections can lead to significant unrest and even violence. Quick action is essential to reverse the damage, but it can be challenging without full government control.
The erosion of democratic institutions, particularly in the context of close elections, can lead to significant unrest and even violence. Anne Applebaum's discussion of Poland highlights the challenges of reversing the damage done by populist governments with autocratic leanings, particularly when it comes to the media and legal institutions. Acting quickly is essential, but it can be difficult if full control of the government is not possible. In the case of the United States, the ongoing attempts to challenge the election results, including through legal means, underscore the importance of maintaining the integrity of democratic institutions and the potential consequences of failing to do so.
Trump's Authoritarian Program: Trump's network of right-wing think tanks and intellectuals are preparing an authoritarian program for governing, and he is attacking core independent institutions, posing a threat to democratic norms and the rule of law.
The legal and political systems have been ineffective in preventing Donald Trump from running for office again, despite his efforts to overturn election results and instigate an authoritarian program. Trump's instincts towards authoritarianism have been a concern since his presidency, but he was previously limited by a lack of support and the presence of traditional Republican figures in key positions. However, Trump now has a network of right-wing think tanks and intellectuals preparing an authoritarian program for governing, and he is attacking core independent institutions like the Department of Justice, CIA, FBI, and the armed forces, which are essential for protecting against an autocratic order. The speed and effectiveness of the legal and political systems in addressing these developments is crucial. Trump's campaigning style in 2024 is vastly different from 2016, and the potential consequences of an autocratic order are profound and alarming.
Republican Party shift: The Republican Party has moved away from traditional values towards authoritarian populism, characterized by strong loyalty to a leader and rejection of independent legal institutions, aligning with the definition of fascism.
The current political climate in the United States, specifically within the Republican Party, has shifted significantly since 2016. The party is no longer characterized by its traditional values of free market, personal freedom, and the rule of law. Instead, it has transformed into an authoritarian, populist movement with a strong loyalty to a leader who defines truth and state interests. This ideology, which rejects the role of independent legal institutions, aligns closely with the definition of fascism. While the label may be controversial, it's essential to recognize the nature of this project as fundamentally different from a normal constitutional one. Umberto Eco's essay on fascism provides a useful framework for understanding the similarities between contemporary authoritarian populism and historical fascist movements. Regardless of the label, it's clear that what we're witnessing is a significant departure from traditional political norms.
Anti-liberal reactions: Anti-liberal reactions, such as Trumpism, are not new but have been present throughout history as challenges to universalist ideas, with America's unique experience including its struggle with slavery and individualistic roots rooted in Christianity, and the current election could signal a dangerous shift towards these forces
The current political climate, specifically Trumpism, can be seen as part of a long-standing historical trend of anti-liberal reactions against universalist ideas, which have been present in various forms throughout the world for the last 200 years. America's unique experience includes its struggle with a chattel slavery system and hyper-individualistic premises rooted in Christianity. However, the recurring theme is the battle between liberalism and anti-liberal elements, with America's transformation into a world power leading to significant battles over global universalism. The question now is whether the outcome of the current election could mark a dangerous shift towards anti-liberal forces, as they have never before achieved an outright victory in the history of the American Republic.
Identity politics and economic systems: Historically, economic systems have driven the development of identity politics to maintain power and garner support from the masses, often rooted in racial or ethnic divisions, as seen in the context of slavery in the US.
Economic systems have historically driven the development of ideologies that serve the interests of the wealthy elite, particularly in the context of democratic societies. These ideologies often take the form of identity politics, which can be used to garner support from large segments of the population. For instance, the ideology of racism in the US was rooted in the economic system of slavery, which generated enormous wealth for a small number of plantation owners. They needed the loyalty and support of poor whites, who were the ones who would fight, and so they created an ideology of racism to make poor whites identify with them, rather than with the enslaved African Americans. This pattern holds true in other democratic systems as well, where the plutocracy must find ways to maintain power despite having all the wealth. They can do this through a successful economy or by focusing on identity politics. This dynamic was famously explored by Karl Marx and continues to be relevant today.
US role in global politics and economics: A shift in US policies could have far-reaching consequences, including strengthening far-right parties, abandoning climate efforts, and leading to a major trade war with China.
The economic and political upheavals we've seen in recent decades, including deindustrialization, the rise of precarious work, and changes in the class structure, are deeply interconnected with cultural conflicts and the interests of those in power. Martin Kettle, in his discussions with the Financial Times, emphasizes that the US, as the central country in the world system, plays a crucial role in shaping global politics and economics. A significant shift in US policies could have profound consequences, such as strengthening far-right parties in Europe, potentially abandoning efforts to address climate change, and even leading to a colossal trade war between the US and China. These potential developments, along with the ongoing challenges of climate change, underscore the need for continued attention and action to address these complex and interconnected issues.