Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.
Speakers: Lee C. Buchheit, Professor, University of Edinburgh; David Lubin, Head of EM Economics, Citi, Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.
Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.
Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
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Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.
Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service
Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.
Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Investors Service
Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.
Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.
Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service
EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Related research:
This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.
Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.
Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
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