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    Motley Fool Money: 01.22.2010

    enJanuary 22, 2010
    What is the primary focus of the Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast?
    How does President Obama's proposal affect the banking industry?
    What are the concerns regarding Google's reliance on advertising revenue?
    Who was the Volcker Rule named after, and why?
    What potential challenges does the Volcker Rule face in implementation?

    Podcast Summary

    • Obama proposes limiting bank size and scopePresident Obama's new proposal could limit banks' ability to invest in hedge funds, private equity, and engage in proprietary trading, potentially reshaping the banking industry

      Effective communication skills are essential in both business and personal life, and the Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast offers valuable insights from experts on how to improve these skills. Motley Fool Money, in its new broadcast format, discussed significant news this week, including President Obama's proposal to limit the size and scope of banks. This proposal aims to prevent banks from investing in hedge funds and private equity funds and restrict proprietary trading, a move reminiscent of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. While officially, proprietary trading represents a small percentage of bank revenues, it's believed that banks engage in more extensive trading activities. The implications of this proposal could significantly impact the banking industry.

    • The Volcker Rule's Complexity and Potential CircumventionThe Volcker Rule, intended to prevent banks from risky investments, faces challenges due to its complexity and potential for circumvention, raising concerns about its effectiveness and unintended consequences.

      The implementation of the Volcker Rule, aimed at restricting banks from making risky investments with depositor funds, faces challenges due to its complexity and potential for circumvention. The rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, was a response to the 2008 financial crisis caused by opaque securitization of mortgage instruments. Although some argue that it didn't directly cause the crisis, others believe that it's essential to prevent future crises, regardless of their cause. However, banks may try to evade the rule by de-risking or unregularizing themselves. Additionally, increasing reserve limits for FDIC-insured banks could further limit lending. The rule's complexity and potential for circumvention raise concerns about its effectiveness, and unintended consequences, such as increased legal fees, are also possible. Despite these challenges, it's crucial to have regulations in place to mitigate financial risks.

    • Chinese government measures to cool down economy may impact investorsInvestors in China and emerging markets ETFs may face consequences from Chinese government's actions to prevent inflation and rein in housing market, while US consumers may see price drops for certain commodities.

      The Chinese economy, which has been experiencing rapid growth, is now facing measures from the Chinese government to cool down its overheating economy and prevent inflation. This could impact investors heavily exposed to China, particularly those in emerging markets ETFs, as the Chinese government is taking steps to rein in the housing market and increase capital reserves for banks. The consequences for these investors could be dramatic. For the average US consumer, the opposite effect is more likely, with prices potentially dropping for certain commodities due to decreased demand from China. Overall, investors should be cautious and consider recalibrating their portfolios in light of these developments.

    • Strong earnings from eBay and Starbucks, driven by strategic acquisitions and adaptabilityEBay's sale of Skype and PayPal's growth contributed to impressive earnings, while Starbucks saw strong sales and traffic growth but slower expansion compared to previous year. Both companies demonstrate the value of strategic acquisitions and adaptability in business.

      EBay reported impressive earnings, with a significant gain from selling off Skype and strong revenue growth from PayPal. The acquisition of PayPal in 2002 proved to be a genius move, as eBay now generates more revenue from external sites using PayPal than from its own properties. Starbucks also reported better than expected earnings, driven by strong sales of its Via single serve coffee. However, it's important to note that these earnings reports came against easy year-over-year comparisons. Despite this, eBay's shedding of Skype was a smart move, and the continued growth of PayPal positions eBay as an interesting company to watch. Starbucks' earnings were also boosted by strong sales and increasing traffic in stores, but growth was slower than the previous year. Overall, these companies' earnings reports highlight the importance of strategic acquisitions and adaptability in today's business landscape.

    • Companies Report Better-than-Expected EarningsStarbucks sees 4% increase in average ticket price, eBay's PE ratio is low, GE's decline in profit serves as an economic reminder

      Several companies, including Starbucks and eBay, have reported better-than-expected earnings for the recent quarter due to a combination of factors such as cost-cutting and conservative estimates from analysts. Starbucks, in particular, has seen a 4% increase in average ticket price, indicating that they are successfully selling more expensive items or raising prices. However, this growth may be limited as the company enters a low-growth phase. eBay, on the other hand, has a relatively low Price to Earnings (PE) ratio compared to historical averages, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued. GE, despite reporting a decline in profit, is still considered a barometer for the economy and serves as a reminder that we are not yet out of the woods, as the company is heavily invested in finance and media industries that have been impacted by economic downturns. Overall, while these companies have reported positive earnings surprises, investors should look beyond the headlines and consider the long-term implications of these trends.

    • Companies Diversifying Revenue StreamsCompanies are generating substantial revenues from non-core business areas like financing and executive pay, while reporting financial successes and innovations.

      Companies, like the one discussed that started as a refrigerator lender, have evolved to generate significant revenues from financing and other non-core business areas. For instance, this company now makes around 40% of its revenues from finances. Another company, NBC, pays large sums for underperforming executives, while losing money on events like the Olympics. In the world of fast food, McDonald's reported better-than-expected earnings, with a profit increase of 6%, while Burger King plans to sell beer at a Whopper bar to boost sales. Despite financial successes and innovations, some investors may still be hesitant due to concerns about the financial implications of these businesses, such as NBC's executive pay or McDonald's average weight gain of customers.

    • Google's earnings miss expectations due to heavy spendingGoogle's earnings fell short despite sales growth due to increased spending on capital items, hiring, and potential acquisitions, raising concerns about its reliance on advertising revenue.

      Google's earnings this quarter, while showing a 17% sales increase, failed to meet Wall Street's high expectations due to the company's aggressive spending on capital items, hiring, and potential acquisitions. The stock had already run up in price, and there were no significant positive surprises. Despite the company's success with advertising, which generates almost all of its revenue, there are concerns about its reliance on this one source. Google's stance against censorship in China, announced last week, is seen as a shrewd political move that has changed the company's perception from a monopolist under scrutiny to a champion of free speech.

    • Google's stand against Chinese censorshipGoogle's exit from China boosted its image and resonated with human rights activists, while Microsoft's reliance on Windows and slow innovation may leave it vulnerable to disruption in the tech industry. Google's Nexus 1 could potentially disrupt wireless carrier business models.

      Google's decision to withdraw from China and stand up against censorship can be seen as a bold and disruptive move from both a political and business perspective. While China was not a significant contributor to Google's revenues, the company took a principled stance that resonated positively with human rights activists and boosted its image in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, in the tech industry, Microsoft is seen as the most likely company to be disrupted due to its reliance on the Windows operating system as its main profit center and its inability to keep up with the innovation pace set by Apple and Google. Microsoft's large R&D budget is mostly spent on protecting existing products rather than creating new ones, making it hard for the company to compete with free, web-based alternatives. Regarding the smartphone market, Google's Nexus 1 may not pose a significant threat to Apple's iPhone yet, but it could potentially disrupt the business models of wireless carriers by allowing consumers to buy phones online and choose their own service providers.

    • Google's Nexus phones threaten wireless carriers, but YouTube's lack of profitability raises concernsGoogle's Nexus phones challenge wireless carriers, but YouTube's lack of profitability raises doubts about its long-term value as a revenue source

      Google's Nexus phones, including the Nexus 1, pose a greater threat to wireless carriers than to Apple. However, Google faces a significant weakness in retaining top talent, which could impact their ability to innovate and compete in the long run. Despite their size and success, Google's rapid growth has led to challenges in managing political risk and monetizing popular platforms like YouTube. The company paid $1.6 billion for YouTube, which had no revenue at the time, and is experimenting with various monetization strategies. While YouTube's popularity makes it a valuable asset, its lack of profitability raises questions about its long-term viability as a revenue generator for Google.

    • Massachusetts election's effect on health insurance and stocksThe Massachusetts election could benefit UnitedHealth Group in a reformed health care industry, while Polaris Industries is a potential investment due to its financials. Harley Davidson, however, is overpriced due to its financial services unit's end and decreased home equity spending.

      The potential impact of the Massachusetts election on the health insurance industry, specifically UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which is seen as a beneficial player in a potentially watered down version of health care reform. Additionally, Polaris Industries (PII), a manufacturer of snowmobiles, ATVs, and utility vehicles, was mentioned as an attractive investment due to its low payout ratio, nice yield, and increasing return on equity. Contrarily, Harley Davidson (HOG) was suggested as an overpriced stock due to the likely end of its financial services unit and the decline in people using cash from their homes to buy Harleys.

    • Discussing potential features of Apple's tablet and the upcoming State of the Union addressApple's tablet could offer family-friendly functions and an attractive price point to stand out from competitors. The State of the Union address and the public release of Apple's tablet are expected to bring significant impact to technology and politics.

      Next week, we can expect significant news with the release of President Obama's State of the Union address and the anticipated public release of Apple's tablet. The panelists discussed potential features that could make the tablet a must-have purchase, such as family-friendly functions and an attractive price point. Apple's reputation for producing cool gadgets is undeniable, but the challenge lies in making the tablet stand out from existing devices like the iPhone. The panelists also expressed their gratitude to their guests, producers, and sponsors, and encouraged listeners to check out their website for past episodes and free reports. Overall, the excitement surrounding these upcoming events promises to bring significant impact to both technology and politics.

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