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    Murdoch Eyes The Telegraph & Dimon's Recession Warning

    enMarch 12, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • The Importance of Empathy and UnderstandingEmpathy and understanding are vital in forming stronger connections and overcoming challenges in both personal and professional spheres. Recognizing invisible struggles and collaborating effectively can lead to successful outcomes.

      Empathy and understanding are crucial in building stronger connections, whether in personal relationships or in business. This was highlighted in the Capital Ideas podcast with Capital Group CEO Mike Gitlin, who emphasized the importance of recognizing the invisible struggles that people face. Meanwhile, in the business world, Rupert Murdoch's News Corp is reportedly planning a joint bid for The Telegraph with the Daily Mail's owner, aiming to ease concerns over foreign control. In the economic sphere, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed caution about the US economy, with the odds of a recession not entirely off the table. Despite this, Aerial Investments founder John Rogers remains optimistic about the Fed's ability to manage the economic situation effectively. These stories underscore the significance of empathy, collaboration, and resilience in navigating challenges, whether personal or professional.

    • ECB keeps minimum reserve requirement, Ukraine faces military challenges, Thiam plans Ivory Coast presidential bid, Bull market may signal market topThe ECB maintains minimum reserve requirements, Ukraine struggles militarily, Thiam eyes Ivory Coast presidency, Bull market could signal market peak

      The European Central Bank is holding steady on its minimum reserve requirement for lenders, while Ukraine faces a significant military challenge due to a lack of ammunition and personnel. Meanwhile, former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam is planning a presidential bid in Ivory Coast, focusing on the pension fund industry. The ongoing bull market in stocks has been a popular topic in recent magazine covers, but some analysts view this as a potential contrary indicator. CIA Director William Burns warned that Ukraine could lose significant ground in 2024 if it does not receive more military assistance, while President Zelensky reported progress against Russian offensives.

    • Discussions for a potential Telegraph Newspaper joint bid by News Corp, Daily Mail, and Redbird IMIPoliticians express concerns over foreign control of The Telegraph, a significant conservative party organ, amid potential joint bid by News Corp, Daily Mail, and UAE-backed Redbird IMI. The consortium aims to dilute Redbird's stake and create a jointly owned future for the paper, potentially easing government pressure.

      There are ongoing discussions about a potential joint bid for The Telegraph Newspaper between News Corp, Daily Mail General Trust, and the UAE-backed investment fund, Redbird IMI. This comes as some politicians have raised concerns about foreign control of the newspaper, given its close ties to the Conservative Party and the UK government. The potential consortium aims to dilute Redbird's stake in the publication and create a jointly owned future for The Telegraph, potentially easing government pressure. The involvement of politicians stems from The Telegraph's significance as a conservative party organ and a platform for political debates. With declining newspaper circulation and the importance of the title in the national discourse, this deal could represent a significant foreign investment story.

    • Media ownership and foreign investment in the UKThe Guardian's center-left model is being replicated by Redbird, a media company potentially backed by UAE money, raising questions about foreign ownership of UK media assets and its impact on free press and democracy.

      The Guardian's model as a center-left website is being applied to the center-right in America by Redbird, a media company potentially backed by UAE money, with the goal of expanding the audience. This raises questions about foreign ownership of UK media assets, especially in light of the UK's desire to encourage foreign direct investment. James Wolcott, UK politics reporter, discussed the underlying issue of free press and democracy in the UK when dealing with countries that have less freedom of press. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed a more pessimistic view on the US economy than the prevailing consensus, stating that the chance of a soft landing in the next year or two is about half of the 70-80% chance widely believed. These developments highlight the ongoing debates around foreign investment, media ownership, and economic outlooks.

    • JPMorgan CEO expresses concerns about Fed's inflation fight, upcoming CPI printJPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon raises doubts about the Fed's ability to combat inflation and warns of a potential economic downturn. The upcoming CPI print is crucial for understanding current inflation levels, with focus on owners' equivalent rent.

      Despite recent encouraging economic data and expectations of a soft landing, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to effectively combat inflation and the potential for a more significant economic downturn. The upcoming CPI print is highly anticipated as it will provide insight into the current state of inflation, with expectations of a slight slowdown in the core number. However, it's important to watch for changes in the owners' equivalent rent component, as an unusual spike in this area could indicate continued housing inflation concerns. Overall, the economy's resilience over the past year and a half has made it difficult to predict when a downturn might occur, adding uncertainty to the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

    • Impact of housing inflation on CPI awaited ahead of Fed meetingInvestors await clarification on housing's impact on CPI before Fed meeting, with UK CPI reading scheduled for July 20th. Any significant increase in housing costs could lead to higher overall inflation rates.

      There is ongoing debate about the impact of housing inflation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and investors are eagerly awaiting clarification on this issue ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 20th. Jill Desus, Bloomberg's economy and government editor, discussed this topic during the Daybreak Europe broadcast. It's important to note that the CPI reading for the UK is scheduled for 12:30 PM UK time on July 20th, so investors in the US should be aware of the time difference. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation, and any significant increase in housing costs could lead to higher overall inflation rates. The Federal Reserve closely monitors inflation data to help inform its monetary policy decisions. Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story. In other news, the Bloomberg Green Festival is coming up on July 10th through 13th in Seattle. This event brings together thought leaders, innovators, and doers in the fields of design, culture, technology, science, and entertainment to discuss solutions for a greener future. If you're interested in attending, you can get a 20% discount using the promo code "radio20" when registering at bloomberglive.com/greenfestival. The festival is being sponsored by Amazon and Alaska Airlines.

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    Matthew Klein is the author of The Overshoot, a newsletter that helps readers make sense of the global economy. Matthew also closely follows Eastern Europe and Russia, has written on the economics of the Russian-Ukraine War, and is a returning guest to the podcast. Matthew rejoins David on Macro Musings to discuss this conflict and its broader economic implications. Specifically, Matthew and David discuss the historical context dating back to the Soviet Union and leading up to this conflict, how Russia’s economy has been historically linked to Ukraine’s, the consequences of Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuel exports, and the implications of global sanctions against Russia for dollar dominance, globalization, and inflation.

     

    Check out Ideas of India: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/, and subscribe to Ideas of India on your favorite podcast app.

     

    Transcript for the episode can be found here.

     

    Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein

    Matthew’s Substack: https://theovershoot.co/about

     

    Related Links:

     

    *Trade Wars or Class Wars* by Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis

    https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177

     

    *Russia Was Already Cutting Off Europe's Gas Before Invading Ukraine. What Can Be Done?* by Matthew Klein

    https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-was-already-cutting-off-europes?s=r

     

    David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/