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    Nicola Sturgeon resigns – what next for Scottish politics?

    enFebruary 16, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Significant purchases: Convenience and quality with Blue Nile and BurrowBlue Nile offers custom-designed engagement rings and free delivery, while Burrow provides durable outdoor furniture and free shipping. In politics, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, resigned due to unclear vision, growing unhappiness among Scottish MPs, and controversy over an independence referendum plan.

      When it comes to making a significant purchase like a custom-designed engagement ring or durable outdoor furniture, convenience and quality are key. At Blue Nile, you can design a unique ring online and have it delivered to your door. Meanwhile, Burrow offers timeless outdoor furniture built to withstand the elements with free shipping. In the world of politics, another significant event took place as Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister and SNP leader, announced her resignation after over eight years in power. Chris Dearen, Scotland editor for The New Statesman, joined the podcast to discuss the reasons behind her departure. Chris mentioned that her policy road had run out, and her vision for the next ten years of Scotland was unclear. Additionally, Chris highlighted the growing unhappiness among Scottish MPs at Westminster who felt overlooked and secondary in decision-making. The unexpected resignation of Stephen Flynn, an SNP MP who challenged without permission, was a clear sign of Sturgeon's waning authority. Another factor was her controversial plan to use the next general election as a de facto independence referendum, which was widely criticized as unrealistic. Overall, the political landscape in Scotland is changing, and the implications of Sturgeon's resignation remain to be seen.

    • Scottish First Minister's Referendum Plan and Gender Reform Proposals Face Opposition and Lack Public SupportDespite attempts to push for a Scottish independence referendum and radical gender reforms, Nicola Sturgeon faced significant opposition, lacked public support, and ultimately failed to make progress due to government interference and unpopularity among voters.

      Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's decision to call for a de facto independence referendum was met with significant opposition and lacked public support. The idea was unpopular within her own party and among opposition parties, and even if she had managed to secure a majority, the British government was unlikely to recognize it as a mandate for independence. Additionally, Sturgeon's pursuit of radical gender reform proposals faced backlash from various groups and was ultimately blocked by the Westminster government. The public opinion polls also showed that voters were not in favor of her stance on the referendum or gender reform. These setbacks, combined with a perceived weakening in her authority, may have contributed to her sudden resignation. The timing and suddenness of her resignation have been a topic of discussion in Westminster, with some seeing it as a vindication of Rishi Sunak's decision to block the Scottish gender recognition bill.

    • Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's Resignation SpeechDespite criticism, Sturgeon acknowledged her decision to call for a Scottish independence referendum and addressed her strengths, demonstrating her unique communication style.

      First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon's decision to call for a Scottish independence referendum was met with criticism from the British public, leading to a decline in her approval ratings. Despite this, Sturgeon recognized that her image had become fixed and she lacked the ability to convert opponents to her cause. In her resignation speech, she acknowledged the reasons for her decision and addressed her strengths, including her empathy and straightforwardness. While some may view her speech as self-indulgent, others see it as a reflection of her long-standing success as a politician. Comparatively, speeches from leaders like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have been criticized for their lack of depth and substance. Sturgeon's resignation speech provided insight into her thought process and demonstrated her unique communication style.

    • Nicola Sturgeon's Authenticity and Scottish IndependenceSturgeon's authenticity as an 'ordinary Scot' and focus on Scottish independence kept her popular, but recent decisions on gender and referendums led to a decline in support. She aimed to create a fairer Scotland through progressive taxation and benefits, distancing it from the Anglo-Saxon neoliberal model towards a Nordic social democratic one.

      Nicola Sturgeon's success as the First Minister of Scotland can be attributed to her ability to communicate authentically as an "ordinary Scot" while keeping the issue of Scottish independence at the forefront. Her longevity in office and the popularity of the independence movement among a significant portion of the population helped keep her vote base strong. However, her recent decisions on gender and the de facto referendum have led to a decline in her popularity and that of her party. In terms of her legacy, Sturgeon's efforts to create a fairer Scotland through more progressive taxation and benefit systems have been notable. Her intention was to distance Scotland from the Anglo-Saxon neoliberal model and move towards a more Nordic social democratic one. Some achievements, such as the Scottish child payment, have been praised, but opinions on these matters are divided.

    • Scotland's Progressive Leader: Sturgeon's Focus on Well-being and Vulnerable CommunitiesScotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, focused on national well-being and helping vulnerable communities, but faced backlash on some initiatives and lacked significant reform in key areas.

      First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon has been a progressive leader with a focus on national well-being and helping vulnerable communities. She attempted to establish a measure of general well-being and put it at the heart of policy decisions, linking up with countries like New Zealand and Norway. However, her administration faced backlash on some initiatives, such as the named persons plan and trans issues, due to their delivery. Sturgeon also implemented a taxation system with the better-off paying more and the poor paying less, but faced criticism for the limited number of people affected by the top tax rate. Despite some achievements around the edges and towards vulnerable communities, there was a lack of significant reform and modernization in areas like education, health, and the economy. This leaves a big job for her successor, who will likely need to take on vested interests in public services and potentially face backlash from certain communities. Overall, Sturgeon's legacy is one of a leader who tried to make a difference for the most vulnerable, but faced challenges in delivering on her more ambitious reforms.

    • Significant political implications for Scottish Labour and Conservative Party with Sturgeon's resignationSturgeon's resignation creates opportunities for Scottish Labour to regain lost seats and for the Conservative Party to face challenges in Scotland's election.

      The resignation of Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister of Scotland has significant political implications for various parties, particularly Scottish Labour and the Conservative Party. Sturgeon's prominence in Scottish politics overshadowed other figures, and her successor may provide more opportunities for them to gain attention. Scotland is crucial for Labour's national strategy, as they lost several seats there in the 2015 general election, which significantly impacted their ability to form a majority government. Recovering these seats would be vital for Labour in the next election. The Conservative Party, on the other hand, may view this as good news for the union but bad news for them electorally, as they are currently struggling in Scotland. The identity and capabilities of Sturgeon's successor will significantly influence the parties' strategies and their prospects in the upcoming election.

    • Boris Johnson's absence from Scottish politics could benefit LabourLabour's momentum in Scottish and UK elections could increase due to Boris Johnson's absence, potentially leading to a collaborative relationship between Labour governments in Scotland and the UK.

      The absence of Boris Johnson from Scottish politics, following the British government's decision not to block Scotland's gender recognition bill, could potentially benefit opposition parties, particularly Labour, in the upcoming Scottish and UK elections. The majority of Scots supported this decision, and Labour has been gaining momentum, aiming to win back key seats in the Central Belt and even surpass the number of seats the SNP would retain. This scenario could lead to a more collaborative relationship between a Labour government at Holyrood and a Labour government at Westminster, potentially delivering more benefits for both countries. Labour is emphasizing this potential unity as part of their campaign strategy for the 2026 Scottish and UK elections.

    • SNP Leadership Change: A New Generation Tackles Devolved Government and Public ServicesThe SNP's upcoming leadership change signals a shift towards a new generation addressing the needs of Scottish voters beyond independence, while also considering a new approach to government and public services.

      The upcoming leadership change in the Scottish National Party (SNP) will mark a significant shift, as the new leader will represent a new generation tasked with ruling a devolved country and addressing public services. The SNP, known for its push for independence, faces decisions on whether to choose a leader who promises more radical action or one who considers a new approach to independence and government. The membership, driven by their desire for independence, will make the final choice. With the SNP having been in power for over 16 years and having achieved many of their goals, there's a sense that a generational shift is necessary. The exact outcome remains uncertain, but the new leader will likely face the challenge of addressing the needs and concerns of Scottish voters beyond the desire for independence.

    • SNP at a pivotal moment in its historyThe SNP is undergoing leadership transition and needs to rediscover strategic patience to secure Scottish independence and win over the middle of Scotland. Potential leaders include Kate Forbes, Angus Robertson, John Swinney, Keith Brown, and Humza Yousaf, with some socially conservative and future leader prospects.

      The Scottish National Party (SNP) is currently in a period of transition following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, and there is no clear successor in sight. The party needs to rediscover its strategic patience and find a new approach to securing Scottish independence, particularly in winning over the middle of Scotland. Some potential contenders for the leadership include Stephen Flynn, Kate Forbes, Angus Robertson, John Swinney, Keith Brown, and Humza Yousaf. The party has not had a leadership election since 2004, making this new territory. The SNP's priorities and direction of travel are becoming clearer, with some politicians like Kate Forbes having socially conservative views and others like Humza Yousaf having been tipped as potential future leaders. The party's profile has been increasing due to controversial bills and debates, such as the hate crime bill and the gender self ID reform. Overall, the SNP is at a pivotal moment in its history, and the coming months will be crucial in determining its future direction.

    • Scottish Finance Minister Kate Forbes: A Promising SNP Leader with a ChallengeYoung SNP Finance Minister Kate Forbes is a competent and likable potential leader, but her religious beliefs could be a challenge for the progressive party. Her self-deprecating nature sets her apart, but support from influential figures is crucial for her success.

      Kate Forbes, the young Scottish Finance Minister, is a promising potential leader for the SNP, known for her impressive grasp of detail, openness to ideas, and competence in managing the economy. She is a member of a fundamentalist Protestant religion, which could be a challenge for the SNP as a progressive party. However, she has tried to address this issue by being open about her views and being willing to compromise on certain social issues. Forbes is considered the most competent and likable candidate of her generation, and her self-deprecating nature sets her apart from older SNP leaders. Despite her potential, her prospects may be hindered if Sturgeon and other influential figures do not support her. Other notable contenders include Angus Robertson, a former Westminster leader, who is experienced but may come across as pompous. Forbes' ability to navigate the complexities of SNP leadership and her ability to adapt to changing political landscapes will be crucial in determining her success.

    • SNP Leadership Race: Uncertainty and the Impact of Sturgeon's DepartureThe SNP leadership race is uncertain due to potential candidates' approaches and the impact of Sturgeon's departure on public support for independence. The SNP membership's preferences and the public's perception of the new leader will influence the outcome.

      The upcoming Scottish National Party (SNP) leadership race is uncertain, with potential candidates like Keith Brown bringing a more traditional approach compared to the current dynamic leadership of Nicola Sturgeon. However, the SNP membership's preferences and the impact of the departure of Sturgeon on public support for independence are hard to predict. Additionally, the absence of Sturgeon's profile and popularity will leave a significant gap, which could result in either a stagnant period or a burst of energy with a fresh face. The outcome of the election could be influenced by the SNP membership's political leanings and the public's perception of the new leader. Tim Bale, an expert on party membership, has noted that the SNP membership skews left-wing, which could make Kate Forbes a challenging choice for them. The podcast will continue to follow the developments in the SNP leadership race. Listeners can access ad-free versions of the New Statesman podcast through the New Statesman app.

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