OIES Podcast - China Outlook for 2024: A year of contradictions

In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, Anders Hove talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Philip Andrews-Speed about his two papers for the recent Oxford Energy Forum on nuclear power entitled “The role of nuclear power in China’s energy security and low-carbon energy transition” and “Will Russian and Chinese nuclear reactor exports assist in the low-carbon transition?”. China has the world’s fastest growing fleet of civil nuclear reactors and will probably have the largest installed capacity by 2030. In this podcast, Hove and Andrews-Speed discuss the rationale for this rapid growth and the challenges involved in governing such a large and ambitious programme. They also assess the extent to which nuclear power will contribute to China’s low-carbon energy transition. They also discuss the differences between the Russian and Chinese nuclear export programmes and whether they will make a significant difference to global emissions reduction.

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin about the future of nuclear energy and the role that small modular reactors can play. The conclusions of COP28 were relatively positive of nuclear energy, including it as a key component of the energy transition for the first time, but despite this the high cost and timescales of major projects remain a problem for many countries. In this podcast we discuss the potential for small modular reactors to increase availability of nuclear technology to a wider audience of developed and developing countries. We address the economics of SMRs compared to large scale nuclear plants, but also look at safety and security issues and the critical question of how to manage radioactive waste generated from a larger community of reactors. Finally we also look at the potential new business opportunities in this area. The podcast is based on the latest Oxford Energy Forum on the future of nuclear energy.

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Sara Vakhshouri about the new edition of the Oxford Energy Forum which includes a series of essays on the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. We discuss some of the key issues in the nuclear fuel cycle, including the dominance of Russia and China in many aspects of mining, fuel production and nuclear technology export and consider the efforts being made to diversify away from dependence on Russia in particular since the start of the war in Ukraine. The development of small modular reactors, the issue of fuel waste disposal, the emerging role of nuclear in a number of developing countries and the boost to nuclear provided by COP 28 are all reviewed, and Sara also summarises her essay on the intersection between nuclear energy and medicine and underlines how dependent the world is on Russia for the supply of critical isotopes used in many medical practices.

In the latest OIES podcast, from the Hydrogen Programme, James Henderson talks to Abdurahman Alsulaiman about his latest paper entitled “Navigating Turbulence: Hydrogen’s Role in the Decarbonisation of the Aviation Sector.” In the podcast we discuss the current balance of fuels in the aviation sector, the importance of increasing efficiency of aero-engines and the impact of increasing passenger miles travelled. The podcast then considers different decarbonisation options for the sector, focussing on a change of engine technology to allow the use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen or electricity but also looking at the potential for hydrogen to play an important role in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) for use with current engine technology. We also look at Low Carbon Aviation Fuels which are essentially existing fuels derived from a significantly decarbonised supply chain and assess whether they have an important role to play as the aviation sector targets a net zero outcome.

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the recent decision by the US government to pause the approval of new LNG export contracts to non-FTA countries. This decision has taken the gas market by surprise as it implies the delay of new LNG export projects that do not already have approval. In the podcast we discuss the drivers behind the US decision, ask how long the pause may last, outline the likely projects that will be affected and the potential consequences for US LNG export volumes. We also assess the reaction of consumers in Europe and Asia, and consider what the decision could mean for perception of security of supply and the long-term role of gas in the energy transition. In addition, we put the role of US LNG in context in the European market in particular and discuss the short- and medium-term implications for gas trade, given the other pressures resulting from military action in the Red Sea and the drought-related reduction of shipping through the Panama Canal.

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the effect that military action in the Red Sea is having on the global gas market. They review the recent traffic of LNG vessels in the area prior to the firing of missiles by the Houthi rebels and the air strikes launched in response by the US and UK, before moving on the discuss how journeys have been adjusted in response. They look at the consequences for journey times, transport costs and tanker availability, and also consider the additional impact of the drought in Panama that has led to restrictions on traffic through the Panama Canal. Finally they discuss the limited impact of these disruptions on prices in Europe and Asia to date, reflecting on the fact that benign gas market conditions in terms of warm weather, limited economic growth, high storage levels in Europe and plentiful supply flexibility have outweighed the need to divert LNG traffic away from the Read Sea.

In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, the new Head of the Gas Programme, about some of Key Themes identified by OIES research fellows for 2024. After a review of the outcomes from 2023, we look at the oil and gas markets and discuss a common theme around the contrast between the fundamental tightness in both markets compared with the relative softness of prices. We then move onto a number of energy transition issues, starting with some of the key actions from COP28 that need to be implemented in 2024 and following with a review of the outlook for carbon markets, hydrogen developments and offshore wind. We also consider the impact of emerging competition between regions over green industrial policy. Finally, we consider some of the key geopolitical drivers for 2024, with the influence of China being the most critical. However, in an election year for so many countries it will be critical to follow the key policy announcements of the main candidates and, of most critically, the outcome of the US election in November.

In this podcast, OIES China Energy Programme Director Michal Meidan is joined by Senior Research Fellows Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed to discuss what the new year will bring to China’s energy policies and markets. In 2023, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer confidence, energy demand was strong. Will this be the case in 2024? Michal, Anders and Philip discuss the outlook for energy given economic growth numbers, whether the low-carbon transition is still on track, and how trade and diplomatic tensions are affecting energy policy and markets. They discuss the recent trends in oil and gas production, the potential for a slowdown in renewables after the record-breaking 2023 installations, new nuclear plant approvals, and the ongoing expansion of domestic new energy vehicles sales. On trade, they also look at China’s recent critical minerals restrictions and how the new foreign entities of concern (FEOC) rules could impact China.

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Energy Transition Programme, David Ledesma talks to James Henderson about his thoughts ion the outcomes of COP 28. The podcast starts with an overview of the key objectives of the COP before discussing some of the main achievements, debates and disappointments of the event. From the agreement over the Loss & Damage Fund on Day 1 through the increased involvement of oil and gas companies and the future of fossil fuels to the debates about climate finance the conversation ranges across the entire spectrum of the COP agenda. It also includes thoughts on the continued focus on methane emissions, the failure to reach any significant agreements on carbon markets, the debate about the role of the World Bank and the problems with setting goals for adaptation, before finally outlining some of the key challenges ahead and the likely topics for debate at COP 29 in Baku.

In this OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to Maria Olczak about the decarbonisaton of international maritime transport. Maria discusses the current and projected greenhouse gas emissions trends, major challenges regarding decarbonisation and policy developments in the EU (extension of the EU Emissions Trading System to maritime transport) and at the International Maritime Organisation level (new GHG strategy and carbon pricing). She also reflects on how these new policies can affect the shipping industry, the role of LNG and methane mitigation in the EU.