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    OpenAI Chaos Continues as Most of Staff Threatens to Quit

    enNovember 21, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • OpenAI Drama: Employees Call for Board Resignation and Reinstatement of Sam and GregOpenAI employees are in conflict with the board over the future of AI, with some calling for the resignation of the board and the reinstatement of Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. The two have reportedly been hired by Microsoft but may return to OpenAI if demands are met. The tension between 'doomers' and 'tech optimists' is at the heart of the issue.

      The ongoing drama at OpenAI, involving the departure of CEO Sam Altman and president Greg Brockman, is just the tip of the iceberg for the larger conflict over the future of AI. OpenAI employees have staged a virtual mutiny, calling for the board to resign and for Sam and Greg to be reinstated. This comes as the two have reportedly been hired by Microsoft to lead a new AI division. However, the deal doesn't seem set in stone, as Sam and Greg have expressed a willingness to return to OpenAI if the board meets employee demands. This situation highlights the ongoing tension between those who believe in the potential of AI to benefit humanity (the "doomers") and those who believe in pushing forward with innovation ("tech optimists"). The outcome of this conflict could have significant implications for the future of AI development.

    • The Debate Over AI Development: Doomers vs AccelerationistsThe debate around AI development is heating up with two opposing views: doomers prioritizing safety and accelerationists pushing for rapid advancement. The outcome remains uncertain, but the accelerationists currently hold the upper hand.

      The debate around the development and control of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is intensifying, with two distinct viewpoints emerging: the "doomers" who prioritize safety and the "accelerationists" who believe in rapid advancement. This divide was highlighted in the recent OpenAI board struggle, where employees opposed the board's decision to remove Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. The doomers, led by ex-Twitch CEO Emmett Sheer, express concern over the potential dangers of self-improving AI loops. In contrast, the accelerationists argue that developing AI as fast as possible could help mitigate existential threats, such as global pandemics and extreme weather events. The ongoing debate underscores the need for careful consideration and collaboration between various stakeholders to ensure the responsible development and deployment of AI. The outcome of this battle for the soul of AI remains to be seen, but the accelerationists currently seem to hold the upper hand. Another recent development involves Kyle Vaught's resignation as CEO of Cruise, a leaderless self-driving car company, following a challenging period for the firm.

    • GM's Cruise unit faces challenges after series of incidentsGM's Cruise division faces regulatory, legal, and reputational issues following a pedestrian incident, withholding of footage, and suspension of permits, damaging public trust and potentially questioning the future of self-driving cars

      Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors (GM) working on autonomous vehicles, is facing significant challenges after a series of incidents, including the suspension of its permits to operate in California due to a pedestrian incident. The incident involved a robo taxi aggressively breaking, dragging the woman an additional 20 feet, and the withholding of crucial footage by Cruise. These events have significantly damaged public trust in the company and added to its regulatory, legal, and reputational problems. This comes at a high cost for GM, which has already spent over $5.7 billion on Cruise and had envisioned generating $1 billion in revenue by 2025. The CEO, Dan Ammann, who was instrumental in the aggressive expansion strategy, has stepped down. The setbacks and expenses have led some industry experts to question the viability of self-driving cars and the wisdom of the significant investments made by legacy automakers in this area. The future of Cruise and GM's autonomous vehicle division remains uncertain.

    • Argentina's president-elect proposes to dollarize economy, faces challengesProposed dollarization of Argentine economy presents challenges like financial burden, loss of monetary sovereignty, and potential economic instability during transition

      The financial and political landscape can present significant challenges when implementing radical ideas, even if they hold potential benefits. We discussed the case of Argentina's president-elect Javier Millett and his proposed plan to dollarize the Argentine economy. This idea, which involves switching the local currency for the US dollar, aims to reduce hyperinflation. However, the implementation of this plan poses numerous challenges, including the financial burden of purchasing and storing enough US dollars, the loss of monetary sovereignty, and the potential for economic instability during the transition. Despite these challenges, Millett remains determined, but economists remain skeptical due to Argentina's current financial situation and global economic climate. This example highlights the importance of careful consideration and planning when implementing significant changes.

    • Argentina's Consideration of Dollarizing Economy for StabilityArgentina's dollarization move may bring inflation control but could lead to loss of monetary sovereignty and inability to make country-benefiting decisions. It's not a silver bullet for all economic issues.

      Argentina is considering dollarizing its economy as a last resort to bring stability to its uncontrollable inflation and economic instability. However, this move comes with significant drawbacks, such as losing monetary sovereignty and the inability to make decisions that would benefit the country. Dollarization has been implemented in countries like Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador, leading to decreased inflation but not solving all structural economic issues. The recent trend among CEOs in using the word "choiceful" in earnings calls reflects their deliberate and particular moves to navigate the unusual economy, providing reassurance to investors without being overly committal. The origin of this word remains unclear. While Argentina hopes for stability through dollarization, it's essential to recognize that it's not a silver bullet and won't fix all economic problems.

    • The Power of Ambiguity and ScarcityCEOs use ambiguous terms like 'choiceful' to convey vague intentions, while scarcity of resources like clay in stop motion animation highlights their significance.

      The word "choiceful" is a rare, ambiguous term that has gained popularity among CEOs due to its lack of clear definition, allowing them to convey vague intentions. The Oxford English Dictionary is the only source acknowledging this term, which adds to its exclusivity. In a recent interview, the McDonald's CEO used the term "choiceful" instead of "thoughtful" or "discerning," emphasizing the ambiguity and flexibility of the word. Meanwhile, in the world of animation, Aardman Animations, the renowned stop motion studio, faced a potential crisis when their clay supplier shut down, leaving them with a limited supply of the precious resource. The clay's unique properties, such as its pliability and ability to maintain its shape under hot lights, make it an essential component for creating stop motion animations. Aardman's hoarding of their remaining clay stock highlights the importance of this resource and the potential consequences of its scarcity. The term "choiceful" and the scarcity of the clay used in stop motion animation serve as reminders of the power of ambiguity and the significance of seemingly insignificant resources. These examples illustrate the importance of understanding the nuances of language and the impact of scarcity on various industries.

    • The art of stop-motion animation: A labor-intensive processStop-motion animation is a meticulous art form involving clay, tireless work for continuity, and a color expert for pigmentation adjustments, resulting in a magical viewing experience.

      The production process behind stop-motion animation, as exemplified by Aardman Studios and their Wallace and Gromit series, is a labor-intensive and meticulous art form. Despite the advent of digital technology, these artists continue to use clay, working tirelessly to create continuity and perfection in their animations. The process is not only time-consuming but also involves a color expert who adjusts pigmentation by feel to ensure color consistency. A single 32nd scene can take months to produce, resulting in a profound appreciation for the magic that unfolds on screen. Meanwhile, the annual White House tradition of pardoning turkeys, which involves huge, expensive birds transported in luxury vehicles and even enjoying music, is another intriguing spectacle with deeper connections. It's a reminder that behind seemingly simple traditions lie complex stories and fascinating processes.

    • President's Tradition of Pardoning TurkeysDespite being pardoned by the President, most turkeys don't live long lives due to their large size and health issues.

      The tradition of pardoning turkeys by the U.S. President began in earnest in 1987 with Ronald Reagan, but the practice of actually sparing the birds from being eaten didn't become common until more recently. Despite being given a "pardon," these turkeys typically don't live long lives due to their large size and the health issues that come with it. Presidents have sent pardoned turkeys to various locations such as Mount Vernon, Frying Pan Park, and the University of Minnesota. However, the misconception persists that these turkeys live out their days in peaceful sanctuaries. In reality, they are large, unnaturally bred birds whose organs can't support their size, leading to a sad end for even the "pardoned" turkeys.

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    Recorded on Tuesday, January 17, 2023

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    About The Road to Autonomy

    The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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    We did see a difference. We saw that there were specific economic pain points in trucking. Robotaxis were solving a problem that didn't appear to exist.

    It was a fantasy, it was science fiction. It was a future were cities did not have to have individually owned cars. Where parking issues would be resolved. This is a grand vision without clear economic drivers. - Chuck Price, Chief Product Officer, TuSimple

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    Recorded on Tuesday, September 8, 2020

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    Episode 180 | The Rise and Fall of Digital Freight Brokerages and the Growth of Autonomous Trucking, A Conversation with Timothy Dooner, WHAT THE TRUCK?!?

    Episode 180 | The Rise and Fall of Digital Freight Brokerages and the Growth of Autonomous Trucking, A Conversation with Timothy Dooner, WHAT THE TRUCK?!?

    Timothy Dooner, Host, WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discus the rise and fall of digital freight brokerages and the growth of autonomous trucking

    The conversation begins with Dooner discussing his outlook for the freight market.

    There is 8. 1% less brokerages than there were a year ago at the start of this year. But there’s still 17% more brokerages than we started at the pandemic. Everyone’s been waiting for not just volumes to go up, but the way freight works, it’s volume plus capacity. They’ve been waiting for the capacity to go down. Volumes are looking a little bit better. Things are receding and this year I’m hearing a lot more optimism. – Timothy Dooner

    The optimism is being shared by Walmart as there are rumors circulating that Walmart is looking to develop a digital freight brokerage. Since Walmart operates their own fleet, they have a unique data set that could potentially help them leapfrog the competition when and if they are introduce a digital freight brokerage service. 

    The freight market is currently turbulent as the demand for freight and the capacity to haul the freight are not in sync. Then there is the California electric truck mandate which will ultimately end up increasing the costs to ship freight, hurting both the carriers and the consumer. Could these mandates help to accelerate the adoption of autonomous truck as they are cheaper to operate? 

    It’s possible and as we are seeing in California, autonomous vehicle technology is not always welcome. in San Francisco vandals set fire to a Waymo autonomous vehicle with a firework, burning the vehicle to the ground. If the regulatory environment in California eventually allows autonomous trucks to operate, will similar vandals also try to cause damage to autonomous trucks? 

    Autonomous trucking is going to play a major role in the future of trucking and the global economy. As the technology is developed different business models are going to come to fruition and one of those is the licensing model. Kodiak has the potential to license their SensorPods technology, creating a lucrative revenue stream as they develop their autonomous trucking platform. This is in addition to their growing defense business.

    Then there is Uber. Uber has investments in Aurora and Waabi, and has the Uber Freight division. Yet they do not operate an autonomous trucking fleet. Grayson and Dooner go onto dicuss Uber’s autonomous trucking investment strategy and who ultimately owns the asset.

    Wrapping up the conversation, Dooner shares his 2024 outlook for the trucking market. 


    Recorded on Wednesday, February 14, 2023


    Episode Chapters

    • 0:00 Introduction 
    • 1:34 Freight Market Outlook 
    • 7:31 Walmart’s Rumored Digital Freight Brokerage 
    • 10:42 Are Electric Truck Mandates Accelerating the Adoption of Autonomous Trucks 
    • 13:57 Vandals in San Fransisco Set Fire to a Waymo Autonomous Vehicle 
    • 18:20 Commercializing Autonomous Trucking 
    • 25:32 The Business of Kodiak Robotics
    • 28:15 Autonomous Delivery Drones 
    • 31:55 Uber’s Autonomous Trucking Investment Strategy 
    • 39:18 Who Owns the Asset? 
    • 42:59 Tesla Cybertruck 
    • 43:52 Apple Vision Pro 
    • 51:08 2024 Trucking Outlook


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    About The Road to Autonomy

    The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and analysis on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    Episode 151 | Waymo Via Shutdown: The End of the Universal Driver?, A Conversation with Chuck Price, AI Kinetics

    Episode 151 | Waymo Via Shutdown: The End of the Universal Driver?, A Conversation with Chuck Price, AI Kinetics

    Chuck Price, President, AI Kinetics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the shutdown of Waymo Via and what it means for the development of the universal driver. 

    The conversation begins with Chuck sharing his thoughts on the current state of the autonomous trucking industry.

    We are going through change. What we’re seeing is the early phase of this development which was largely science doing science, now moving to doing engineering and commercialization. Some of the companies that have been involved in this thought ahead for that and are prepared and others are struggling or have struggled. 

    What we are seeing is a consolidation and some changes in strategy that I think are normal and healthy for an industry as complex as this. – Chuck Price

    The consolidation currently occurring in the autonomous trucking industry is healthy — the market is functioning properly. On Wednesday, July 26th, Alphabet announced Waymo will be shutting down their autonomous trucking division — Waymo Via. While this may have come as a surprise to many, there were rumors in the market and public statements by Alphabet on earnings calls that laid the foundation for this announcement. 

    Waymo did the right thing for a lot of reasons. – Chuck Price

    By shutting down Waymo Via, Waymo is now going to focus exclusively on their robotaxi business — Waymo One. As Mr. Price stated, this is indeed the right thing for Waymo to do as they are in a head-to-head competition with Cruise. Cruise is a formidable opponent with the resources to compete. Not to mention, Cruise is currently expanding at a much more rapid pace than Waymo. Cruise is in the driver’s seat, while Waymo follows behind. 

    From a technical perspective, was this an admission by Waymo that the Universal Driver did not work as they expected? Or is this more inancial discipline coming from Waymo as the division will have a new de facto CEO on September 1st — Ruth Porat, President & Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet. In her new role Ms. Porat will be responsible for investments in Alphabet’s “Other Bets”. 

    To further streamline the business and appease Wall Street, could Ms. Porat look to license the Waymo driver to global OEMs? Or raise additional capital outside by collateralizing Waymo’s IP? Aurora Innovation with 1,450 patents related to autonomy recently raised $820 million in new capital. 

    I am confident that the formal IP developed by Aurora gave them a huge advantage when they went to raise money, and without that they probably would not have been able to raise. – Chuck Price

    Even though Aurora recently raised $820 million in new capital, the company has a cash burn rate of $45.3 million a month. It’s expensive to operate, Aurora. With Waymo signaling that the Universal Driver did not work, Aurora continues ahead with developing their version of the Universal Driver

    Would Aurora be wise to shut down their passenger car business and focus solely on autonomous trucking? This decision would allow Aurora to streamline their business and lower their cash burn rate — the economics point the way forward. But the question remains, what path will Aurora choose as the company matures and grows?

    I haven’t seen a Universal Virtual Driver yet, but I have seen focused drivers come to fruition. We’ve seen cars that are now self-driving without safety drivers. We’ve seen trucks that are self-driving without safety drivers. Both have been achieved. The science is done for those specific use cases. – Chuck Price

    To scale an autonomous trucking startup, the startup has to have a production relationship with a truck OEM. To achieve this relationship, the autonomous trucking startup will have to commit $50 to $100 million to the relationship.

    Wrapping up the conversation, Chuck shares his thoughts on how he sees the autonomous trucking industry evolving over the next five years.


    Recorded on Tuesday, August 1, 2023

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    About The Road to Autonomy

    The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    The Rise of Self-Driving Cars

    The Rise of Self-Driving Cars

    Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates the fast-rising world of self-driving cars with former VP of R&D at GM and Mobility Consultant for Google, Inc. Larry Burns, Wired magazine transportation editor Alex Davies, and comic co-host Chuck Nice.
    NOTE: StarTalk All-Access subscribers can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free. Find out more at https://www.startalkradio.net/startalk-all-access/