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    Planet Hope: Forecasting volcanic eruptions with Andrew McGonigle

    enJune 10, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Volcanoes: Shaping Our Planet and Our LivesVolcanoes have played a crucial role in Earth's creation and supply essential ingredients for life, but also pose threats with destructive eruptions. Innovative technology helps predict eruptions and protect communities, making it essential to invest in research and technology.

      Volcanoes, both a giver and a taker, have significantly shaped our planet and our lives. While they played a crucial role in creating the Earth's earliest oceans and atmosphere, supplying essential ingredients for life, they also pose a threat with their destructive eruptions. There are currently around 1500 active volcanoes, putting approximately 500 million people at risk. Innovative individuals like Andrew McGonigal, a Rolex Laureate and volcanologist, are using technology to predict eruptions and help protect communities living in volcanic zones. McGonigal, originally from Edinburgh, Scotland, a city formed by ancient volcanoes, has combined his interests in physics, technology, and the natural environment to make a difference in the field of volcanology. Despite the inherent risks, there is hope for mitigating the devastating impact of volcanic eruptions, making it essential to continue investing in research and technology to better understand these natural giants.

    • Volcanic eruptions: Risks and RewardsVolcanic eruptions pose significant risks to human life and economic damage, but also provide nutrients and create fertile land for agriculture

      Volcanic eruptions pose a significant risk to human life and economic damage, particularly in low and middle income countries where building and monitoring infrastructure may be limited. Approximately 100,000 people have died from volcanic eruptions in the last century, and they can cause destruction to property and the local ecology. However, despite the risks, volcanoes also have the ability to provide nutrients in the soil and create fertile land for agriculture, making them a draw for people to live near them. Andrew has firsthand experience with the devastating effects of volcanic eruptions, but also recognizes the potential beauty and benefits they can bring. Overall, it's crucial to be mindful of the risks posed by volcanoes and to take steps to mitigate them, particularly in areas where resources and infrastructure may be limited.

    • Childhood fascination with volcanic hills and Enlightenment in Scotland, solidified interest through research in Hawaii and ItalyThe speaker's fascination with volcanoes began in childhood, solidified through research experiences in Hawaii and Italy, and deepened his understanding of their role in climate change.

      Volcanoes, with their raw power and otherworldly nature, have left a profound impact on the speaker's fascination with science. This fascination began during his childhood in Edinburgh, Scotland, surrounded by volcanic hills and the intellectual hub of the Enlightenment. The speaker's research on ultraviolet light in Hawaii, where he witnessed the eruption of Kilauea volcano, further solidified his interest. The experience of observing the lava's thermal energy in the water was visceral and a reminder of the power of nature. Another example, Stromboli in Southern Italy, with its frequent eruptions, offered a tamer yet still captivating display. The speaker's research in Hawaii also led him to the Mauna Loa Observatory, where the long-term carbon dioxide dataset was acquired, further deepening his understanding of the importance of volcanic regions in the study of climate change. Overall, the speaker's experiences with volcanoes have left a lasting impression on his scientific curiosity and appreciation for the natural world.

    • Andrew's journey from physics to volcanologyPassionately following one's interests can lead to unexpected discoveries and career paths

      Andrew's passion for physics and appreciation for the natural world led him to the study of volcanoes, an intersection where science and beauty meet. Despite a solid education in physics and practical experience in laser technology, Andrew yearned to apply his skills in a more wild and untamed environment. He came close to leaving science behind, but a timely opportunity to work with volcanologist Clive Oppenheimer allowed him to pursue this new path. Understanding volcanoes and predicting their eruptions is a complex task, as no two volcanoes behave identically. Advancements in technology and data collection have exponentially increased our knowledge, but the rarity of eruptions presents a challenge. We want more eruptions to study, but we don't want the destructive consequences. Andrew's journey serves as a reminder of the importance of following one's passions and the ever-evolving nature of scientific discovery.

    • Understanding volcanic behavior requires more than observing populated areasMonitoring signs like ground inflation, increased heat, seismic activity, gas composition, and breathing patterns is crucial to understanding volcanic behavior.

      Studying volcanoes is not as simple as observing those near populated areas and assuming the same behaviors will apply to all. Volcanoes exhibit various signs before eruption, such as ground inflation, increased heat, and seismic activity. Monitoring these signs involves analyzing gas composition and breathing patterns, which are crucial to understanding volcanic behavior. The firsthand experience of working on a volcano can evoke a sense of wonder and amazement, despite the inherent risks and challenges. For instance, during my first encounter with Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua, we missed the eruption but were left with the awe-inspiring sight of melted asphalt and burning grass. This experience underscores the importance of understanding volcanic processes and the sense of discovery that comes with it.

    • Leveraging technology for affordable and accessible volcanic gas monitoringNew technologies like drones and repurposed smartphone sensors are making volcanic gas monitoring more accessible and affordable, allowing scientists to gather valuable data in areas with limited resources and improve eruption prediction and volcanic activity studies.

      Advancements in technology, particularly drone technology and repurposed smartphone sensors, are crucial for making volcanic gas monitoring more accessible and affordable. This disruption in the field allows scientists to gather valuable data in areas with limited resources, ultimately benefiting those in need. Historically, scientists relied on physically collecting gas samples from volcanic craters or fumeroles using flasks and glassware. While this method is effective, it can be expensive and impractical for fieldwork. By embracing new technologies and finding creative ways to adapt them, researchers can improve their ability to predict eruptions and study volcanic activity more efficiently.

    • Monitoring Volcanic Gas Emissions with Remote SensingRemote sensing technologies, like satellites and drones, enhance volcanic gas monitoring by observing gas effects on light, inferring gas release and concentrations, and reducing safety risks and time-consuming methods.

      The use of remote sensing technologies, such as satellites and drones, has significantly improved the monitoring and measurement of volcanic gas emissions over the past few decades. Traditional methods of physically accessing the gases pose safety challenges and are time-consuming. Remote sensing, on the other hand, allows for the observation of the effects of volcanic gases on light, enabling the inference of gas release and concentrations. Satellites can detect ultraviolet absorption caused by certain gases, while drones can carry sensing equipment into the gases without risking human safety. Although there are challenges in developing drones capable of withstanding the harsh volcanic conditions, the technology has shown great promise in improving forecasting and access to previously hard-to-reach areas. The proliferation of drone technology in recent years has further expanded their use in scientific applications. While there is no silver bullet for predicting volcanic eruptions, drones have provided valuable insights and access, contributing to more accurate and timely warnings.

    • From madcap ideas to successful productsPersistently follow through on instincts, collaborate, and strike a balance between bravery and folly to bring unconventional ideas to life

      Bringing an inventive idea to life involves a great deal of persistence, intuition, and calculated risk-taking. Andrew McConaughey, a volcanologist, shared his experiences of transforming unconventional ideas into successful products. He mentioned the challenge of following through on instincts, especially when faced with the question of how long to continue pushing an idea versus when to abandon it. McConaughey gave an example of using smartphone cameras for ultraviolet volcano monitoring, which was initially a "madcap idea" but eventually led to a functional product. He also highlighted the importance of collaboration, as evidenced by his development of drone technology for volcanic plume detection, which revolutionized the field and significantly reduced the cost and weight of previous technology. Throughout the process, it's crucial to strike a balance between bravery and folly, and to keep pushing forward until the idea becomes a reality.

    • Use of smartphone technology increases volcano surveillance capacitySmartphone technology enhances volcano monitoring, making early warning systems more accessible and affordable, potentially saving lives and reducing economic impact

      Technological innovations, particularly the use of smartphone technology, have significantly increased the surveillance capacity of volcano observatories and have the potential to make these tools more accessible and affordable for people in low and middle-income countries. This is important because early warning systems for volcanic eruptions can save lives and reduce the economic impact of volcanic activity. Andrew's work in this field has been recognized and supported by the Rolex Awards for Enterprise, which has provided crucial funding, recognition, and networking opportunities that have enabled him to make significant progress in developing and deploying these technologies. The Rolex network has also provided valuable connections with individuals who have seen both success and failure, bringing a unique perspective and making the collaboration experience enjoyable and productive.

    • Technology Advancements in Volcanic ResearchAdvancements in technology, like autonomous drones and smartphones, help us better understand and predict volcanic activity, reducing the risk of unexpected eruptions. Collaborations with organizations like NASA explore lunar applications.

      Traditional funding sources may not be suitable for offbeat volcanic research projects. However, advancements in technology, such as autonomously deployed smartphones and drones, are paving the way for better understanding and prediction of volcanic activity. The next steps include observing data and listening for potential changes before future eruptions. Furthermore, collaborations with organizations like NASA are exploring the application of this technology on the moon for potential lunar missions. While we may never completely abolish the risk posed by volcanoes, advancements in technology and data analysis will allow us to become more aware of individual volcanic behaviors and reduce the likelihood of unexpected events. An example of this is the decreased risk at specific volcanoes due to technological advancements and increased understanding. However, the philosophical question remains whether we will ever truly know everything about volcanic activity and eliminate all risk.

    • Exploring the potential of human ingenuity and technologyHuman ingenuity combined with accessible technologies and a wider talent pool offers immense potential for problem-solving and understanding the natural world. Historical examples and modern advancements illustrate the power of collaboration, innovation, and a technologically-driven approach to addressing challenges.

      The combination of human ingenuity, accessible technologies, and a wider talent pool offers immense potential for problem-solving and understanding the natural world. The speaker's experience with Italian volcanoes, such as Etna and Stromboli, serves as a prime example of how dedicated research and technological advancements can lead to a better understanding of these geological phenomena and reduce associated risks. This hopeful perspective is further fueled by the availability of sophisticated technologies, like 3D printing and low-cost computing, which can be used by individuals to invent solutions to various problems. The involvement of schools and the next generation in this process adds to the optimism, as they possess a vast pool of untapped creativity and problem-solving abilities. The human capacity to solve problems is a fundamental trait, as evidenced by historical examples like Neville Maskelyne's Earth-weighing experiment using rudimentary technology. Overall, the speaker's perspective emphasizes the potential for a collaborative, innovative, and technologically-driven approach to addressing challenges and making progress in various fields.

    • Calculating Earth's Circumference with Simple ToolsAncient Greek philosopher Eratosthenes made a significant discovery about Earth's size using basic tools, inspiring curiosity and hope for future innovations with modern technology.

      The power of simple experiments and curiosity, as demonstrated by the ancient Greek philosopher Eratosthenes, can lead to significant discoveries about our world. Eratosthenes, using just two sticks, two strings, and two balls, calculated the Earth's circumference with remarkable accuracy. This story gives us hope and inspires us to imagine what young minds with access to modern technology like 3D printers and programming languages can achieve. The potential for innovation is vast, and we can look forward to the incredible discoveries and advancements these future scientists and engineers will bring. This was the topic of discussion on Planet Hope, hosted by Adam Vaughan, featuring volcanologist Andrew McGonigal. The podcast is a collaboration between The Times and Rolex's Perpetual Planet Initiative. Listen to the entire series for free on the Times Radio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Don't forget to leave a review.

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