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    About this Episode

    With apologies to JORGE LUIS BORGES.

    Philippine Commentary is now a podcast.
    Dean Jorge Bocobo.

    (BTW here is the original post of this item.)

    Recent Episodes from Philippine Commentary

    Oh English, How Do We Mangle Thee? Let Me Count The Ways

    Oh English, How Do We Mangle Thee? Let Me Count The Ways
    hat follows is a verbatim transcription of the Reading Text beginning on Page 3 of an instruction module handed out to University of Makati Grade 11 students this past week identified as ENGLISH FOR GRADE 11 WITH FILIPINO LEGACY INTEGRATION. I have taken the liberty however, of marking in red passages that, in my opinion, represent erroneous, deficient or unsatisfactory English instruction--for being negative examples.  
    [My own interspersed comments are in aqua. --DJB]


    A RECONSTRUCTED PORTRAIT OF JUAN DE LA CRUZ
    By Roger Don S.J. Cerda

    How do we describe today's Filipino? What are the qualities or physical attributes that make us stand out among all the races in the world?  What distinguishing marks do we have? Is it our nose that is as big and wide as the gorilla's? Is it our fair skin? Is it our round brown eyes?  Is it our moderate height? Is it our unique black hair?  Is it our proficiency in the Filipino language?  Is it our conservative way of dressing or the barely naked one?  Is it because we live in the 7,107 islands of the Philippines whether it's low tide or high tide? Is it because we  eat street food like fish ball, squid ball, and chicken feet? Or none of the above? 

    ["Conservative" dressing and "barely naked" dressing seem to belong in the same category to me though I'm mystified by the second term, which maybe should read "almost naked"]

    Even before the intrusion of the Spaniards, the Americans, and the Japanese, we Filipinos already have atypical and unexplainable personalities that set us apart from other races. Aside from our physical attributes, we unveil an individuality that depicts a Filipino today.  But honestly, we show a lot of ironies and paradoxes in our lifestyles that at times, we, ourselves, are confused about our true identity, as if we do not know who we truly are.

    [Above should say, "Even before the intrusion...we Filipinos already HAD..." Also the writer doesn't seem to appreciate the difference, subtle though it be, between being different and being unique.]

    Because of rapid technological advancement and the unstable conditions of our lives, we have evolved making ourselves famous in one way or another -- good or bad.
     
    [Preceding is an utterly senseless statement]  

    At this juncture, I may say that we typify the following traits:    

    [A shy person does not typify shyness. Such a person is typified by shyness. Adjectives modify nouns--not vice versa. Defining traits apply to those that possess those traits--not vice versa.]

    First, We Filipinos have a Remarkable Sense of Humor. [inline capitalized words are in the original.] Where in this world (aside from the mental hospital), do we see people laughing for no reason at all?  Where do you see people smiling even in the most disheartening situation? Where do we see people making fun of their own mistakes?  Where do we see people discussing trivia at the height of a clear and present danger?

    [I'd say every country in the world displays these traits that the author suggests is unique to Filipinos.]

    When I saw the television footage of typhoon Reming in Bicol, I felt sad for the people who lost their houses and other important properties. However, I felt slightly appeased when those typhoon victims smiled and waved as if nothing cataclysmic happened when they saw the lights of roving cameras.  Well, it's only in the Philippines where people do not take serious matters seriously.

    [First the author feels sad for the people's loss then claims to be "slightly appeased" by their smiles and waves. Better would be to use the word "glad"as the opposite of "sad" to make the contrast sensible.]

    I remember the president of the Philippine Normal University when he narrated his childhood experience with his English teacher during my week-long seminar in English Language Teaching and Testing in April of 2007. His teacher brought apples, oranges, and mangoes to make their lesson on nouns understandable and memorable, and so the teacher started teaching..."This is an apple and this is a noun, use nouns in a sentence?"  His classmate seated at the back raised his hand to answer, soothe [typo?] teacher called him and said, "Ok, use nouns in a sentence."His classmate stood straight and confidently said, Ï want to eat those nouns."  And everyone burst into laughter.  I realized that laughter is indeed the best medicine because you feel good every time someone makes you titter.

    Still others, because of technological advancement, are contented to express their whimsical hilarity through through text messaging. A friend of mine sent the following messages: [Three inane text messages follow labelled Message 1, Message 3, and Message 5. Some are erroneous but that isn't the author's fault so I'll skip these.]

    .
    .
    .
    We Filipinos never run out of jokes. We are very resourceful in creating shaggy dog stories despite the burden we carry on our shoulders and the preoccupations that we have. We always find time to make other people chuckle, as the saying goes, "The best way to cheer yourself up is to cheer other people up." It's ironic because we appreciate and desire funny and sometimes ribald text messages than the inspirational and religious ones. Well, it's only in the Philippines.

    Second, we Filipinos Have Incomparable Sense of Hospitality. We always offer the best we have to our visitors without any reservation.  Even with foreigners, when they visit the Philippines for a vacation, we still speak their language to accomodate them because we regard them so much; on the contrary, when we go to a foreign land as tourists, they do not speak our language, so, we do not have a choice but to speak their language to facilitate effective communication. We do not always find this incredible trait from other people herein the Philippines. 

    Third, We Filipinos are very Creative and Inventive most especially during the most unthinkable situation.
    [Latter should be plural: situations and the double "most" is well, too much. The use of the adjective unthinkable is well, unthinkable!]
    Nobody can deny that we are ingenious especially when the situation calls for it. 
    [Which nonsensically suggests that we are ingenious even when the situation does not call for it?] 

    Whenever Metro Manila is flooded, people make small wooden bridges for the stranded pedestrians to cross the flooded part of the street so as not to get wet.  In exchange, the "owners" of the wooden bridges ask for "voluntary contribution." Instant money, isn't it?  It's only in the Philippines. 

    [The use of small wooden bridges during a flood for a small fee is considered ingenious by the author and asserted to be unique to the Philippines.]

    In the provinces, when there is a big flood, they take it to their advantage to go up on the roofs of their houses to fish tilapia for their dinner.  Others would row boats filled with the things they would like to sell to other flood victims.  It's only in the Philippines.

    [It seems to me people run up to their roofs in a big flood to save their lives, not catch tilapia for their dinner!]

    These do not imply, however, that we are so puerile; it only shows that we have the knack for turning something bad into something good for we believe that there is light in total darkness. 

    [Come again...!? He must mean "light at the end of the tunnel" or some such cliche which was ill-advisedly avoided and replaced with a senseless claim. Next, that making the best of difficult situations is childish or puerile is nowhere implied.  Thus, it is needlessly denied. It's use is apparently for sheer value in vocabulary enrichment. This penchant for the superfluous or illogical use of certain nice-sounding words is often resorted to in the rest of the reading.]

    Our creativity is revealed when we are able to generate something from seemingly useless things.  Some Filipinos became popular because they were able to make an artwork, a bag, or an apparel from the disposables and sold them for thousands of pesos. It proves that there is money in garbage for people who have the right mental attitude.

    Fourth,  we Filipinos are Great Violators.  In Metro Manila, it's typical to see big warning signs saying, "Walang Tawiran, Nakamamatay."  But still, we don't follow the city ordinance even though there is an overpass or underpass nearby for safe street crossing.  Maybe we are either tired of going up and down or we are just too lazy that we would rather take the risk of and sometimes enjoy, crossing the highway.
    In the same way, we throw our garbage in places where there are signs: "Bawal Magtapon ng Basura Dito." The same is true with "Bawal Umihi Dito" for we are like dogs urinating anywhere we please.  We are repulsive at times for we spit almost anywhere. We even abuse ourselves by eating foods that are forbidden by the doctors for we imbibe the idea: "Life is short, so make the most of it."  We also patronize pirated cassette discs in Quiapo and Greenhills  for practical reasons.  It is ironic that we do uncivilized things for we are civilized people.  As Manuel L. Quezon said,  "Our greatest fear is not that of doing wrong, but that of being caught doing wrong." That's why we always get  in trouble. Walang ganyan sa States. It's only in the Philippines.

    [Another false claim of uniqueness, this time thoroughly insulting to the Filipino. That these traits (unsanitary habits and garbage disposal, buying of pirated goods, eating unhealthy foods, etc.) are not exhibited in America is a false claim and a useless comparison worthy of the old term "colonial mentality."]

    Fifth, We Filipinos are Professional Crammers.  In the antediluvian story of Juan Tamad, he waited for the guava fruit to fall down from the tree to his mouth.  There was also an instance when he bought crabs and asked them to go home on their own. Since then, Juan has been used to name an idle Filipino. 

    [How "cramming" relates to indolence  is difficult to fathom, unless you need to insert the fancy term antediluvian instead of using the simple word OLD.]

    Based on my personal experience both as high school and college literature teacher, I notice that when I give a requirement a month or so before the deadline, students do not mind at all.  They procrastinate. They do it a day or two before the deadline. Well that's the type of students that we have today, whether we admit it or not. 

    Sixth, We Filipinos are so Superficial.  When a person is confronted with the question, "how do you define beauty?"  Common answer is "beauty is in the eye of the beholder"or "beauty is not seen by the eyes, it is felt by the heart"for the most imporant things in life are then things that we do not see. Bravo! I'm impressed!

    We always underscore that the true beauty of a person is what 's inside, for the physical beauty fades but virtue lasts. Am I right or left? So why is it that we are still so superficial? When we ask: "Who would you choose:  a beautiful but dull girl or an intelligent but ugly girl?"  We will certainly take the first option because we believe that the intellectual inferiority of a person can still be improved, isn't it? Although the physical look of a person can be enhanced nowadays, through modern technology and with the help fo Dr. Vicky Bello and Dr. Manny Calayan, we would still opt for natural beauty.  Do you honestly want to be with someone who looks like Bakekang for the rest of your life?  Who could endure to be with someone who looks like a living monster? 

    [I feel like kicking this author in the teeth! The mentions of Bello and Calayan are entirely superfluous, and unprofessional in this context, as is the entirely baduy attempt to inject Erap-like humor with: "Am I right or left? In the end he simply insists that we ARE superficial by suggesting Filipino men only fall in love with dumb, beautiful women over smart, ugly and possibly kind women. I find this utterly insulting. Honestly! ]

    There are very few men who would subscribe to the idea of Andrew E's song, "Humanap Ka ng Panget" to be certain that they would not be left by their partners.  We really want someone whom we can display in public, someone who exudes an angelic face with a flawless body.  On the contrary, most women would subscribe to DJ Alvaro's song: "Ang Tipo KOng Lalake ay Maginoo Pero Medyo Bastos" someone decent, but passionate and sexually aggressive. 

    [Okay, okay, a double kick in the teeth--for stereotyping BOTH Filipino men and women, possibly according to his own puerile prejudices.] 

    Seventh, We Filipinos are so Judgmental. We constantly see the flaws in other people whether we  accept it or not.  It becomes automatic that we criticize them without examining ourselves first. When we see a good-looking foreigner with a not so good-looking Pinay, we always conclude that foreigners are fond of Pinays who look like "kasambahay" (housemaid)...that they are continuously searching for Pinays with exotic beauty not present in other Asians.  No wonder because Pinay is an "endangered species!" Well it's only in the Philippines.

    [This illogical use of "endangered species" is again apparently intended merely for its inclusion as  vocabulary enrichment. The example does not prove to me that Filipinos are "judgmental" either. ]

    Eight, We Filipinos do not Provide an Exact Answer.  We may not be sensitive about it, but when someone inquires, we do not give a precise answer.  For example, if someone asks:

    "Kumain ka na ba?" we usually say "busog pa ako" instead of saying oo or hindi; 

    "Anong oras na?" we usually say, "maaga pa!" instead of giving the exact time;

    "San ka na?" we usually say, "malapit na"  instead of saying our exact location.

    or "Maganda ba GF nya?" or "Guwapo ba BF nya?"  we usually say "mabait" or "okay naman" instead of telling the truth because we do not want to offend anyone.  

    This manner has become part of our consciousness. Well, it's only in the Philippines.

    Ninth,  We Filipinos have a Strong Sense of Volunteerism."  Have you celebrated your birthday and you came across attendees or visitors that you are not personally acquainted with or never have met before?  Have you felt alienated while asking yourself, ïs this my birthday?" Have you formed any suspicion wondering where those people are coming from?

    If your answer is yes, the [typo] you should not wonder why.  It's because we Filipinos have as [typo] strong sense of "volunteerism," We attend birthdays, weddings, town fiestas, baptisms, anniversaries, victory parties, and the likes, even though we are not invited at all.  Well, that's Filipino Courage!  So when someone congratulates you on your wedding with matching embrace even to the groom instead of just holding hands, you know that they are "volunteers" which make your budget collapse. 

    [Clearly trying to be humorous with the tongue-in-cheek use of "volunteerism"  and "volunteers" the author only succeeds at degrading the socially useful real meaning of volunteerism and loses the opportunity to illustrate "gate-crashing" or even "gregariousness". 

    However, even though we have unexpected visitors, it is our hospitality that prevails to accomodate them.  Just think that you are helping our less fortunate brothers and sisters! (Just kidding!) So the next time you celebrate an important decision, remember what the Boy Scouts say, "prepared". 

    [The Boy Scout motto is "Be Prepared". But I wonder what would prepare the students for the superfluous flippancy of "Just kidding!"? I mean, is he, or isn't he? How do they decide without running into a conundrum of comprehension? ]
    Tenth, We Filipinos are so Complaining.  I just noticed that we become so cranky.  We have not started doing what is expected of us and we are already dissenting.  We often try to bargain and meet halfway.  We are disinclined to carry on an arduous task because we want everything spic and span.

    [To use context as a means of teaching a special vocabulary word like "arduous" one could write "We are disinclined to carry on an arduous task because we want everything EASY." In this way, if the student doesn't already know "arduous" he can infer that it is the opposite of "easy". But that technique fails with "spic and span" which really means "neat and clean" -- which is NOT the opposite of arduous.]

    We seldom appreciate the good intention of our superiors or elders.  I personally experience this is [typo] school when I give a requirement or project to my students.  Even in government, we are known worldwide for overthrowing our President through mass rallies or demonstrations. We create our own policy,  Military officers say, "Obey first before you complain." We say, "Complain first before you obey."

    [Triple kick in the teeth for portraying the Edsa Revolutions as  mere "complaining"!]
    Eleventh, We Filipinos are so Pretentious.  Where there is a conflagration, for example, we show our sense of "bayanihan" by helping our neighbors put out the fire, but in reality, we take this as an opportunity to rob them.  We make it appear that we are saving their properties, but we are actually stealing them.  We become so insensitive that we don't bother what our neighbors go through during that depressing incident. So sad...Walang ganyan sa States. It's only in the Philippines.

    [This is not an example that illustrates PRETENTIOUSNESS at all, but CHICANERY and DUPLICITOUSNESS. It insults the real bayanihan spirit that still exists in many Filipino hearts and denies that all these traits, including our claimed insensitivity to others, exist even in "the States" and other places.]

    Twelfth, we Filipinos are so Resilient. We have endured all the tragedies in life from Herculean typhoons such as Milenyo, Ondoy, and Pepeng to civil war, crimes, hunger, scarcity of rice, mounting prices of commodities, corruption,climate change, global warming, name it, we all have it, but have surpassed them all. We are true Survivors.  Wherever we go, whatever the situation, it is never excessively alarming or disorienting.  We can always adapt to the fast-changing environment to make the difference. Hurray! 

    [The author says we "have endured all the tragedies...but have surpassed them all"  which is a curious kind of redundancy that I'm not so sure how to take. He probably meant "suffered" rather than "endured"  Then there is the very curious use of the word Herculean as an adjective for typhoon. Only in da Pilipins! --  as the author is fond of saying throughout.]

    This is the moment when we need to acknowledge our own imperfections and insecurities.  The challenge now is to create a portrait that is worth praising and emulating -- a portrait that is truly inspiring. 

    [This English Module is full of problems in form and content.  it is worth criticizing and not emulating for it is utterly depressing as an example of the supposedly new and improved Senior High School curriculum instruction material. The exercises that surround the essay have their own grammatical and other language flaws, for a subsequent article here.]
    Philippine Commentary
    en-usJune 23, 2013

    Whither Pugad Baboy? Whither PDI?

    Whither Pugad Baboy? Whither PDI?
    In today's Publisher's Note, Philippine Daily Inquirer's Raul C. Pangalangan takes a "Serious Look at Cartoons" and tackles the Pugad Baboy-Saint Scholastica-PDI-Pol Medina brouhaha, which RCP summarizes succinctly thus:

    Pugad Baboy’s strip on June 4 spoke of religious hypocrisy toward gays and lesbians. It singled out St. Scholastica’s College for purportedly tolerating lesbian relationships among its students, suggesting that the nuns themselves might be lesbians. On June 6, the Inquirer apologized for the derogatory cartoon that imputed to the nuns policies, practices and sexual preferences inconsistent with their faith.

    Reassured by an internal inquiry, RCP lays the predicate for a defense...

    Our Reader’s Advocate, Elena E. Pernia, has conducted an inquiry and her findings are most assuring. She found that the comic strip was rejected by the art section precisely for insensitivity when it was first submitted last April. It was a sound exercise of editorial discretion within the art section, and the author accepted it. The strip was published on June 4 by mistake—a technical mix-up in the art section—showing that there was no intent to malign, that editorial judgment had been exercised responsibly, and that the author himself, to his credit, had accepted that editorial decision. 
    ...but immediately confesses to oral or printed defamation:

    Indeed, after the offending strip was inadvertently published, Pol Medina apologized to the St. Scholastica sisters and admitted that the cartoon had crossed the line. In constitutional law, cartoon art is protected speech, but when it becomes defamatory, it loses its constitutional protection especially when the victim is a private person and not a public figure. That is why defamatory speech is punished under the Revised Penal Code. 

    Still the old passion for reason runs strong in Raul Pangalangan and so he stares at the scales of Justice:

    Since the defamatory nature of the cartoon was admitted by the author himself, one would have to be more popish than the pope to say it ain’t so. On the other hand, I can actually imagine a number of defenses. There was no malicious intent, as shown earlier. It was a cartoon, not a news item that purports to state facts. And—while truth is no defense and malice is assumed in every defamatory imputation—some readers have pointed out that Pugad Baboy merely speaks of a practice rather widespread in many same-sex schools. But the fact remains that St. Scholastica’s College was singled out for ridicule even if it hadn’t provoked or invited such attention. The slur was gratuitous. The situation called for an apology. 
     ...concluding that the gratuitousness of singling out St. Scholastica "called for an apology" while mentioning Readers' comments  that Pugad Baboy merely spoke of "a practice rather widespread in many same-sex schools."

    Well then.  Many PDI Readers may now note that the rumored widespread and possibly condoned gay and lesbian homosexuality in private Catholic schools such as St. Scholastica, had not hitherto been confirmed, in a perhaps unintended but unmistakable a manner and in so authoritative a space as the Philippine Daily Inquirer's Publisher's Note!

    PDI: 'It's a Misconception that  Pol Medina was fired.' 

    Another misconception is that Medina was fired. This is not true, and the Inquirer categorically stated on June 6 that he remained a contributor. It further announced: “Pugad Baboy will not appear in the Inquirer, however, pending further investigation.” This was a reasonable measure while the Reader’s Advocate was still ascertaining the facts.

    On the morning of June 8, the Reader’s Advocate concluded that the entire problem stemmed from the erroneous uploading of an already rejected file, recognized Medina’s forthright apology for the injury it had caused, and unqualifiedly recommended the resumption of Pugad Baboy’s publication. However, Medina soon after announced that he was resigning from the Inquirer for having “dishonored” it.

    PDI: 'It's not Pol Medina's anti-Church or anti-Marcos stance.'

    In interviews and online posts, Medina contends that his anti-Church and anti-Marcos stance is why he is in Dutch with this newspaper that began running his comic strip in May 1988. This is absolutely false. 

    Even he will acknowledge that the Inquirer upholds free and responsible expression, and that censorship of political views is not part of its policies. (And this controversy would have been avoided had Medina responded to the calls of his Inquirer colleagues instead of putting himself out of reach.)

    On the first issue, various Inquirer columnists have been similarly critical of the Church in the Philippines. They have defended the artist Mideo Cruz for his irreverent collage “Politeismo” and Carlos Celdran for the “Damaso” incident in the Manila Cathedral. Medina’s strip on gay love in Catholic girls’ schools takes the same critical stance, but what made it objectionable was that it crossed the line by singling out by name a specific group.

    On the second issue, suffice it to say that Medina’s anti-Marcos strips should also place him in the same camp as many Inquirer columnists who opposed the dictator during those days when doing so entailed risking life and limb.

    But even if Medina deviates from the editorial position of the Inquirer, he has no reason to fret. The dean of the Inquirer’s corps of cartoonists, Jess Abrera, has differed fundamentally with many of us in the Inquirer on the issue of reproductive health, and to this day continues to draw his anti-RH editorial cartoons even while the editorial and certain columns cheer the passage of the RH Law!

     The cartoon medium works by being bold and irreverent, and by pushing the outer limits of public discourse within the bounds of decency.  The Inquirer will continue to support Filipino cartoonists the way it discovered Medina and featured his work through the years. Aspiring Filipino cartoon artists are invited to send samples of their work (e-mail to arts@inquirer.com.ph under the heading: “comics contribution”).

    RAUL PANGALANGAN ends with this:
    We are prepared to nurture the next generation of cartoon artists who will engage this democratic space, who will make us both laugh and think.



    BOLD PREDICTION: Pol Medina and PDI will kiss and make up!

    My Commentary:

    First some definitions:

    Defamation—also called calumny, vilification, or traducement—is the communication of a false statement that harms the reputation of an individual, business, product, group, government, religion, or nation. Most jurisdictions allow legal action to deter various kinds of defamation and retaliate against groundless criticism.
    Under common law, to constitute defamation, a claim must generally be false and have been made to someone other than the person defamed.[1] Some common law jurisdictions also distinguish between spoken defamation, called slander, and defamation in other media such as printed words or images, called libel.[2]
    Similar to defamation is public disclosure of private facts, which arises where one person reveals information that is not of public concern, and the release of which would offend a reasonable person. "Unlike [with] libel, truth is not a defense for invasion of privacy."[3][not verified in body]. False light laws protect against statements which are not technically false but misleading.[4]
    In some civil law jurisdictions, defamation is treated as a crime rather than a civil wrong.[5] The United Nations Commission on Human Rights ruled in 2012 that the criminalization of libel violates freedom of expression and is inconsistent with Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.[6]
    A person who defames another may be called a "famacide", "defamer", or "slanderer".

    Was Pol Medina acting as a "famacide, defamer or slanderer" by causing the "communication of a false statement" that perhaps "harms the reputation" of St. Scholastica by imputing to it (and other private Catholic schools) HYPOCRISY?

    For some reason, the PDI Publisher's Note gives me to understand that the basic accusation contained in the cartoon is true, or that it is believed by so many people to BE true, as to be called "common knowledge"?  Though I or you may not have personally KNOWN the accusation to be true when the cartoon was published is irrelevant to its alleged or even apparent truth, which no one has yet DENIED, not even the St. Scholastica nuns.

    I do not agree with the  PDI Publisher in concluding that (a) the cartoon was DEFAMATORY or that (b) it had lost its Constitutional protection as free speech.

    I also do not agree with the PDI Publisher that "St. Scholastica" is the equivalent of a private person. PDI editorials of recent vintage have amply criticized the Catholic Church for political meddling and even political blackmail of civic leaders to exert pressure on key issues of interest such as the RH Law and other progressive social measures in Congress and the government.

    I think the Pugad Baboy Cartoon legitimate raises the issue of HYPOCRISY on the part of such private religious institutions. While the Organized Religion buggers Congress over legislation on reproductive health, women's rights, divorce, violence against women and children, etc. it has many skeletons in it's own Closets! 

    With a former Dean of the University of the Philippines College of Law as its Publisher, the Philippine Daily Inquirer is more than capable of defending itself legally in this, and any of the other thousand LIBEL and DEFAMATION cases that PDI eats for breakfast.
    Philippine Commentary
    en-usJune 15, 2013

    Maxwell's Equations

    Maxwell's Equations

    Maxwell's Equations of Electromagnetism:

    Gauss' Law for Electrical Charge

    · E = 4 π ρ

    Gauss' Law for Magnetism

    · B = 0

    Faraday's Law

    × E = - 1 c B t

    Ampere's Law

    × B = 1 c 4 π J + E t
    Philippine Commentary
    en-usJune 02, 2013

    Comparison of the Final SWS Pre-Election Survey and the Official Tally

    Comparison of the Final SWS Pre-Election Survey and the Official Tally





    Strictly Speaking, the Social Weather Stations Survey of 2-3 May 2013--its Final Pre-election survey of 2400 randomly sampled registered voters--correctly predicted the final RANKING of only 3 out of the 33 Senatorial Candidates (though it correctly predicted the composition of the Magic 12). 

    SWS
    SURVEY

    SWS
    RANKING

    HITS

    COMELEC
    RANKING

    VOTES
    FOR SENATOR

    57

    LEGARDA

    0

    POE

    20147423

    50

    CAYETANO

    0

    LEGARDA

    18482961

    48

    BINAY

    0

    CAYETANO

    17408543

    48

    ESCUDERO

    1

    ESCUDERO

    17332952

    45

    POE

    0

    BINAY

    16645515

    44

    EJERCITO

    0

    ANGARA

    15858995

    44

    VILLAR

    0

    AQUINO

    15388992

    43

    PIMENTEL

    1

    PIMENTEL

    14584612

    41

    AQUINO

    0

    TRILLANES

    13995603

    38

    ANGARA

    0

    VILLAR

    13696120

    38

    TRILLANES

    0

    EJERCITO

    13552991

    37

    HONASAN

    1

    HONASAN

    13070031

    35

    ENRILE

    0

    GORDON

    12364091

    33

    JMAGSAYSAY

    0

    ZUBIRI

    11707146

    33

    ZUBIRI

    0

    ENRILE

    11419246

    29

    HONTIVEROS

    0

    MAGSAYSAY

    11252335

    27

    GORDON

    0

    HONTIVEROS

    10840047

    25

    MADRIGAL

    0

    HAGEDORN

    8323835

    16

    HAGEDORN

    0

    VILLANUEVA

    6868774

    15

    VILLANUEVA

    0

    MADRIGAL

    6727877

    14

    MACEDA

    0

    MAGSAYSAY

    5569077

    13

    MMAGSAYSAY

    0

    CASINO

    4254245

    11

    COJUANGCO

    0

    MACEDA

    3388936

    9

    CASINO

    0

    COJUANGCO

    3091642

    4

    MONTANO

    0

    ALCANTARA

    1227521

    3

    ALCANTARA

    0

    DELOS
    REYES

    1226470

    3

    DELOSREYES

    0

    BELGICA

    1118829

    3

    DAVID

    0

    PENSON

    1030107

    2

    PENSON

    0

    MONTANO

    1029439

    2

    FALCONE

    0

    DAVID

    1026096

    2

    LLASOS

    0

    SENERES

    698440

    2

    BELGICA

    0

    LLASOS

    695260

    1

    SENERES

    0

    FALCONE

    659073

    SWS
    SURVEY of 2400 voters

    2,3 May

    HIT
    RATIO

    3/33

    COMELEC
    CANVAS #16

    ACTUAL
    VOTES WON

     

    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMay 24, 2013

    Did Comelec Use SWS Survey Results To Proclaim Winning Senators?

    Did Comelec Use SWS Survey Results To Proclaim Winning Senators?
    On May 2-3, 2013, the world renowned public opinion pollster, Social Weather Stations, conducted Random Sampling Survey as  SWS Final Pre-Election Survey for Senators. 

    The main results of the SWS survey above can be seen in the following tables:




    On May 13, 2013, some 39 million votes cast a total of 294,683,224 votes for one or more of 33 Senatorial Candidates, which was the TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTES canvassed by the Commission on Elections in its sixteenth and Comelec Final Official Canvas for Senators


    One of the most serious accusations hurled against the Commission on Elections during the post-Election post mortem (still ongoing!) is that it actually used SURVEY RESULTS of the Social Weather Stations to decide on the RANKINGS of the candidates in the Senate Race.

    In order to test the veracity of this allegation, I performed the following steps on the DATA that anyone can access from the above links to check my computations.

    (1) I typed into an Excel File the SWS MEASURED STATISTIC published in the Final PreElection Survey linked above as a percentage of the 2400 respondents that indicated they would vote for a given senatorial candidate.  This data can only be READ MANUALLY from the JPEGS in the SWS detailed report, although I assume it can be had electronically at SWS Offices in Manila.

    (2) The highest ranked candidate according to the SWS survey was Loren Legarda with 57%  so I NORMALIZED all the other values as a fraction of 57%.

    (3)  From the Official Tally of the Comelec Canvas #16 (the last and final official canvass) I took the equivalent data for each of the 33 Senators and inserted them into the Excel File beside that of SWS. I also NORMALIZED all the data to the No.1 ranking Senator in the Comelec Canvas, who was Grace Poe with over 20 million votes, or 6.8% of the 294 million cast for senators.

    I then plotted the two NORMALIZED CURVES for comparison.



    No matter how I look at this plot, I cannot help but see an UNCANNY RELATIONSHIP


    But I shall let you the readers of Philippine Commentary DECIDE. What do you think??

     

    Here is the data used to make the plot above: 

     


    CANDIDATE CANVAS#16 VOTESRATIO TO POE CANDIDATESWS%MAY2-3RATIO TO LEGARDA
    . "POE, Grace"201474231LEGARDA571
    . "LEGARDA, Loren"184829610.917385861CAYETANO500.877192982
    . "CAYETANO, Alan"174085430.864058049BINAY480.842105263
    . "ESCUDERO, Chiz"173329520.860306154ESCUDERO480.842105263
    . "BINAY, Nancy"166455150.82618581POE450.789473684
    . "ANGARA, Sonny"158589950.787147567EJERCITO440.771929825
    . "AQUINO, Bam"153889920.763819373VILLAR440.771929825
    . "PIMENTEL, Koko"145846120.723894664PIMENTEL430.754385965
    . "TRILLANES, Sonny"139956030.694659709AQUINO410.719298246
    . "VILLAR, Cynthia"136961200.679795128ANGARA380.666666667
    . "EJERCITO, JV"135529910.672691043TRILLANES380.666666667
    . "HONASAN, Gringo"130700310.648719739HONASAN370.649122807
    . "GORDON, Dick"123640910.613681015ENRILE350.614035088
    . "ZUBIRI, Migz"117071460.581074116JMAGSAYSAY330.578947368
    . "ENRILE, Jack"114192460.566784447ZUBIRI330.578947368
    . "MAGSAYSAY, Ramon"112523350.558499963HONTIVEROS290.50877193
    . "HONTIVEROS, Risa"108400470.538036403GORDON270.473684211
    . "HAGEDORN, Ed"83238350.413146386MADRIGAL250.438596491
    . "VILLANUEVA, Eddie"68687740.340925686HAGEDORN160.280701754
    . "MADRIGAL, Jamby"67278770.333932384VILLANUEVA150.263157895
    . "MAGSAYSAY, Mitos"55690770.276416344MACEDA140.245614035
    . "CASINO, Teddy"42542450.211155789MMAGSAYSAY130.228070175
    . "MACEDA, Ernie"33889360.168206922COJUANGCO110.192982456
    . "COJUANGCO, Tingting"30916420.15345099CASINO90.157894737
    . "ALCANTARA, Samson"12275210.060926948MONTANO40.070175439
    . "DELOS REYES, JC"12264700.060874783ALCANTARA30.052631579
    . "BELGICA, Greco"11188290.055532114DELOSREYES30.052631579
    . "PENSON, Dick"10301070.051128474DAVID30.052631579
    . "MONTANO, Mon"10294390.051095319PENSON20.035087719
    . "DAVID, Lito"10260960.050929392FALCONE20.035087719
    . "SENERES, Christian"6984400.034666468LLASOS20.035087719
    . "LLASOS, Marwil"6952600.034508632BELGICA20.035087719
    . "FALCONE, Baldomero"6590730.032712521SENERES10.01754386
    .
    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMay 23, 2013

    Was the Vote Share of Team PNOY Constant? Mining the Election Data (Part 2 of 4)

    Was the Vote Share of Team PNOY Constant? Mining the Election Data (Part 2 of 4)
    Let me turn now to the more serious accusation posed by several quarters that the VOTE SHARE of TEAM PNOY and therefore of the non-Team PNOY candidates was "CONSTANT" throughout the Canvassing stages 1-16 conducted by Comelec.

    Rene Azurin in his article mentioned in Part 1 yesterday quotes two "experts":

    As first pointed out by political activist Ado Paglinawan, the way the 2013 election results came in was "highly suspicious." He correctly observed that, "from the smallest count to the biggest count, there is consistency in the space between the first 15 senatorial candidates…. The progression through the night is mathematically predictable, and is a statistical improbability." The nationwide trend observed by Mr. Paglinawan in the senatorial tally indicated to him that the count "was following a pre-programmed formula based on earlier pre-paid surveys, rather than the actual vote." It was clear to him, he wrote, "that an earlier decision of ranking had been predetermined and the proportion of votes had been pre-designated from a national perspective, with a total disregard for provincial and regional nuances…. From 10% of the vote to 60%, the tally has been running a consistent vote share. As the votes from different provinces came in, the voting pattern was identical for the senatorial positions, something contrary to historical experience in Philippine politics."

    Former Comelec IT director Ernie del Rosario adds: "The progressive tallies follow some sort of deterministic linear equation devoid of the influence of any probabilistic parameter or variable. This can only mean one thing -- it is a pre-designed results reporting mechanism that fits the 9-3 survey instead of a tally of the actual votes. I will call it the 9-3 Formula. Notice that the rankings of the candidates in the entire tally (1st to 33rd place) from the time the first report was published to subsequent ones are practically unchanged. What happened to the individual candidates’ known bailiwicks that should have caused some ranking movements in the tallied results? Smoothened by the 9-3 linear formula?" Mr. del Rosario then wryly remarks, "Magdadaya rin lang ang mga ito, medyo sana lagyan nila ng konting pag-iisip [These guys who planned to cheat should have maybe put a little more thought into it]."
    Is it literally true, as Mr. Paglinawan claims that, " From 10% of the vote to 60%, the tally has been running a consistent vote share" ?  

    The simple yet rigorously true answer to this question is NO! as a clear-eyed examination of the raw official tally data below would easily show -- although it would seem that careless or intentionally deceptive GRAPHING and TABULATING of the data has confirmed the bias of many that a "linear equation" determined the results resulting in a CONSTANT share of the vote for Team PNoy throughout the 16 Comelec Canvasses. The table below is from Rappler's Official Tally Page


    POE,
    Grace
    6.408=
    176
    6.481=
    729
    6.646=
    866
    6.696=
    251
    6.737=
    401
    6.726=
    848
    6.739=
    432
    6.823=
    043
    6.791=
    939
    6.849=
    068
    6.845=
    406
    6.851=
    528
    6.827=
    111
    6.825=
    845
    6.833=
    469
    6.836=
    977
    LEGARDA, Loren 6.289209 6.052085 5.995208 6.054241 6.186465 6.171682 6.186527 6.229455 6.222154 6.285388 6.299719 6.288226 6.268697 6.26446 6.273427 6.272146
    CAYETANO, Alan 5.759226 5.632376 5.707426 5.715334 5.768305 5.789212 5.784509 5.837116 5.829217 5.906367 5.911245 5.924696 5.910071 5.905143 5.908654 5.907545
    ESCUDERO, Chiz 5.787896 5.828463 5.84136 5.802596 5.793761 5.77217 5.741245 5.874194 5.923798 5.902021 5.905759 5.91766 5.890411 5.876858 5.884117 5.881893
    ANGARA, Sonny 5.262514 5.329173 5.415183 5.41643 5.399872 5.412031 5.402278 5.376451 5.380348 5.374626 5.385823 5.392037 5.38607 5.379554 5.380569 5.381709
    AQUINO, Bam 4.889264 5.03601 4.892162 5.085233 5.036078 5.096358 5.075429 5.084355 5.164426 5.165697 5.151384 5.161811 5.201167 5.206076 5.213128 5.222215
    PIMENTEL, Koko 4.956139 5.085349 5.073804 5.026066 5.001143 4.994109 5.009129 4.980641 4.984305 4.928569 4.919514 4.934624 4.932817 4.945154 4.944408 4.949251
    TRILLANES, Sonny 4.755243 4.58992 4.715206 4.722992 4.736474 4.825775 4.798255 4.819638 4.767335 4.726851 4.732401 4.748471 4.731949 4.745798 4.746317 4.749372
    VILLAR, Cynthia 4.621456 4.543628 4.497219 4.544701 4.629311 4.658743 4.668389 4.62743 4.653344 4.694 4.675218 4.663274 4.653185 4.645528 4.648594 4.647743
    MAGSAYSAY, Ramon 3.977589 3.951371 3.893306 3.843258 3.785981 3.80859 3.779222 3.728927 3.769574 3.796315 3.798287 3.802919 3.817896 3.813978 3.816006 3.818451
    HONTIVEROS, Risa 3.491308 3.461584 3.650998 3.625094 3.598067 3.646786 3.596486 3.628285 3.690129 3.669277 3.697679 3.706785 3.68636 3.68128 3.680035 3.678542
    MADRIGAL, Jamby 2.166958 2.081498 2.080517 2.089797 2.094864 2.153473 2.161967 2.191846 2.245768 2.26829 2.260171 2.2624 2.281073 2.27589 2.281109 2.283088
    TOTALS 58.36498 58.07319 58.40926 58.62199 58.76772 59.05578 58.94287 59.20138 59.42234 59.56647 59.58261 59.65443 59.58681 59.56556 59.60983 59.62893

    It is the TOTALS line in the table above that the critics say was rigged to give TeamPNoy a 60% share of the vote at the end. They claim that the share of Team Pnoy was "consistent" or "constant throughout the sixteen stages of canvas, a claim that gained traction, in my opinion only because the data DOES LOOK CONSTANT if you graph it a certain way or tabulate it as follows with the SIGNIFICANT FIGURES of the summation process truncated and the actual numbers rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.

    Graphed at low resolution or in a range of 0 to 100%, this data would look like this:




     But compare the above to the same data plotted to see the variations in it:
     .


    NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE VOTE SHARE DATA


    What we are dealing with here is a set of 16 percentages representing the SUM of the votes gained by the 12 candidates running under Team PNoy divided by the running total of the votes tallied at each Canvass Stage multiplied by 100.

    Whenever we are dealing with a set of numbers and someone says they look to be approximately the same, we can quantify exactly what is meant by the term "approximately" or "almost the same."

    The first step is to calculate the MEAN or AVERAGE VALUE of the set which in this case happens to be

       59.12838388 %

    The next step is to calculate the STANDARD DEVIATION of the set, a quantity that measures the spread of the data around the mean. In this case the standard deviation happens to be

    0.534782704 %

    Such a Mean and Standard Deviation cannot in any way be regarded as the hallmarks of a "constant" set of numbers. To compare the spread in the vote share data with that of a standard Social Weather Stations survey of 1200 respondents, we note that the corresponding number in SWS is called the statistical error or margin of error but it is in the vicinity of 3.0 percent. In other words SWS raw statistics have an uncertainty or builty in IMPRECISION equal to plus or minus 3 percent, which must be borne in mind whenever one reads the results of those surveys.

    But I shall deal with the accusation that the Senate Vote was patterned after SWS surveys in a subsequent post. 

    For now, the simple answer to the question of whether or not the Team PNoy share was constant is: 

    NO


    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMay 21, 2013

    Mining the Election Data for Evidence of Good or Evil (Part 1 of 4)

    Mining the Election Data for Evidence of Good or Evil (Part 1 of 4)
    My good friend, RENE AZURIN, writes a stinging condemnation of the recent May 13 elections in Business World last week "Uncritical Media, Illegitimate Elections".

    I heartily agree with his criticisms of much of the main stream media
    The problem is that many media practitioners today are not intellectually prepared to deal with complex issues and are often too lazy to put in the work needed to prepare to deal with such issues. This is evident in the quality of our talk shows where the host is content to lob superficial "gimme" questions at a guest instead of engaging him/her in serious discussions that will illuminate difficult subjects or unmask hidden agendas.
    Let me just add what most people already know that that self-same media needed no more intellectual preparation--corporately or individually--to receive the BILLIONS in election campaign spending, than to know NOT to bite the generous hands that feed it.

    So let me turn to the second part of the article dealing with the LEGITIMACY of the recent polls, which utilized an Automated Election System based on portable Precinct Count Optical Scanners.  I shall focus mainly on the technical critique  and leave Comelec's allegedly irregular deviation from various elections laws and procedures for a later piece.

    Perhaps because of those irregularities, long-running suspicions and accusations have once more arisen that the Smartmatic PCOS system is hackable from within, and vulnerable to all sorts of digital legerdemain that could be used for wholesale, computerized cheating. Indeed, since the election data has become publicly available and online, many technically adept and even not-so-adept critics say there are obvious signs of such "hocus PCOS" in the election data itself.

       Rene quotes two critics of the system and their observations, as follows:

    As first pointed out by political activist Ado Paglinawan, the way the 2013 election results came in was "highly suspicious." He correctly observed that, "from the smallest count to the biggest count, there is consistency in the space between the first 15 senatorial candidates…. The progression through the night is mathematically predictable, and is a statistical improbability." The nationwide trend observed by Mr. Paglinawan in the senatorial tally indicated to him that the count "was following a pre-programmed formula based on earlier pre-paid surveys, rather than the actual vote." It was clear to him, he wrote, "that an earlier decision of ranking had been predetermined and the proportion of votes had been pre-designated from a national perspective, with a total disregard for provincial and regional nuances…. From 10% of the vote to 60%, the tally has been running a consistent vote share. As the votes from different provinces came in, the voting pattern was identical for the senatorial positions, something contrary to historical experience in Philippine politics."

    Former Comelec IT director Ernie del Rosario adds: "The progressive tallies follow some sort of deterministic linear equation devoid of the influence of any probabilistic parameter or variable. This can only mean one thing -- it is a pre-designed results reporting mechanism that fits the 9-3 survey instead of a tally of the actual votes. I will call it the 9-3 Formula. Notice that the rankings of the candidates in the entire tally (1st to 33rd place) from the time the first report was published to subsequent ones are practically unchanged. What happened to the individual candidates’ known bailiwicks that should have caused some ranking movements in the tallied results? Smoothened by the 9-3 linear formula?" Mr. del Rosario then wryly remarks, "Magdadaya rin lang ang mga ito, medyo sana lagyan nila ng konting pag-iisip [These guys who planned to cheat should have maybe put a little more thought into it]."
     Throughout the week since the election, I've been engaged with many others on Twitter and Facebook discussing and debating these very points.  So I decided to look at all the data myself and decide for myself about these accusations, without any prejudices or pre-conceived notions. Luckily the data both gentlemen quoted by Rene above is contained in one compact package maintained by the superb team at Rapplerdotcom  headed by Ms. Maria Ressa. The Official Tally of Votes of the 2013 Elections

    A table at the above location contains the individual votes of the 33 Senatorial candidates who vied for the 12 available seats in each of 16 Canvassing Stages conducted by the Comelec last week and which resulted in the proclamation by last Friday night (in 3 separate, widely-criticized partial proclamations) of the Magic 12 winners.

    It is this data that both Mr. Ado Paglinawan and Ernie del Rosario are referring to.  In what follows I shall endeavour to present the actual data in a form that will allow readers of Philippine Commentary to participate with me in a thoroughgoing examination and critique of the accusations.

    In this post I shall do not much more than present the information before sharing my own conclusions about them.

    First to this statement from Mr. Paglinawan quoted above:

    "from the smallest count to the biggest count, there is consistency in the space between the first 15 senatorial candidates…. 
    In the graph below, which I prepared using a spreadsheet program and the data in the Official Tally, readers will see a series of 33 curves each with 16 data points. The X-axis of this graph represents the 16 tallies performed by the National Board of Canvassers on some 304 local and overseas "Certificates of Canvass" containing some 294 million votes for the 33 candidates cast by some more than 39 million voters who turned out for the election.   The Y-axis shows the PERCENTAGE of the TOTAL VOTES ALREADY CANVASSED at each stage with which each of the 33 candidates were credited.

    Please examine this graphic carefully and consider the statement above of Mr. Paglinawan in the clear light of this simple plot.  The 'smallest count' he speaks of is Canvas #1 and the 'biggest count' is Canvas #16 at which point some 294 million votes had been counted.




    The tabulated data is prettier  found at the Rappler website, but is also here as a simple listing:

    ALCANTARA, Samson SJS 1,227,521 1,219,652 1,206,022 1,174,068 1,090,613 1,048,079 959,870 780,065 605,021 417,657 382,929 260,495 215,956 186,692 85,331 51,351

    .
    ANGARA, Sonny LDP 15,858,995 15,770,821 15,626,960 15,286,774 14,714,561 14,079,635 12,759,795 10,287,276 7,919,081 5,593,601 5,232,977 3,790,897 3,244,883 2,803,181 1,250,443 698,784

    .
    AQUINO, Bam LP 15,388,992 15,280,039 15,123,026 14,761,981 14,086,288 13,466,762 12,263,781 9,874,431 7,488,847 5,255,177 4,927,748 3,535,501 3,046,469 2,532,438 1,181,655 649,222

    .
    BELGICA, Greco DPP 1,118,829 1,113,725 1,104,566 1,083,284 1,030,445 986,686 896,573 745,918 592,252 419,104 396,543 286,000 253,021 225,203 87,520 54,430

    .
    BINAY, Nancy UNA 16,645,515 16,554,119 16,399,739 15,997,420 15,358,420 14,725,283 13,525,314 10,802,550 8,329,945 5,787,423 5,315,184 3,825,405 3,181,537 2,724,274 1,341,777 750,816

    .
    CASINO, Teddy Makabayan 4,254,245 4,242,259 4,203,937 4,093,259 3,930,504 3,748,036 3,339,166 2,806,706 2,151,295 1,549,394 1,449,793 1,063,605 921,212 812,330 337,732 182,651

    .
    CAYETANO, Alan NP 17,408,543 17,318,674 17,153,733 16,773,997 16,168,156 15,453,195 14,022,191 11,145,518 8,597,603 5,989,369 5,597,679 4,049,550 3,423,951 2,954,461 1,321,587 764,740

    .
    COJUANGCO, Tingting UNA 3,091,642 3,080,639 3,057,518 2,991,871 2,847,173 2,755,337 2,559,892 2,102,359 1,650,075 1,210,914 1,156,801 922,370 753,688 552,396 270,442 149,116

    .
    DAVID, Lito Kapatiran 1,026,096 1,020,879 1,012,215 983,718 927,379 892,476 814,936 651,555 487,883 337,831 315,428 229,612 200,547 173,925 78,781 47,584

    .
    DELOS REYES, JC Kapatiran 1,226,470 1,221,045 1,210,298 1,178,654 1,108,529 1,063,738 962,319 785,224 577,663 411,082 388,969 286,015 252,545 222,073 96,466 55,679

    .
    EJERCITO, JV UNA 13,552,991 13,476,446 13,360,579 12,999,725 12,566,069 12,026,870 10,950,878 8,877,587 7,044,012 4,939,197 4,602,150 3,319,079 2,846,576 2,485,370 1,131,921 620,151

    .
    ENRILE, Jack NPC 11,419,246 11,346,552 11,253,382 10,994,555 10,575,933 10,160,318 9,354,186 7,374,497 5,796,044 4,125,323 3,686,140 2,704,522 2,231,785 1,917,484 912,764 527,218

    .
    ESCUDERO, Chiz independent 17,332,952 17,246,756 17,071,568 16,718,197 16,148,955 15,438,853 14,011,873 11,326,358 8,652,216 5,944,573 5,581,201 4,067,421 3,476,228 3,023,792 1,367,597 768,547

    .
    FALCONE, Baldomero DPP 659,073 654,576 646,870 631,217 592,909 569,099 523,901 419,062 319,184 220,572 203,432 142,560 121,084 104,033 47,167 29,669

    .
    GORDON, Dick UNA 12,364,091 12,324,291 12,252,317 12,048,097 11,673,359 11,261,192 10,172,274 8,194,864 6,235,930 4,479,287 4,254,472 3,177,270 2,798,395 2,441,159 1,081,080 584,822

    .
    HAGEDORN, Ed independent 8,323,835 8,305,240 8,249,271 8,133,173 7,901,113 7,582,899 6,561,396 5,387,475 4,203,297 3,032,770 2,935,767 2,178,915 1,964,644 1,780,551 728,735 448,544

    .
    HONASAN, Gringo UNA 13,070,031 13,019,299 12,909,206 12,569,266 12,153,688 11,669,991 10,634,845 8,543,963 6,730,774 4,667,276 4,335,339 3,191,420 2,701,796 2,339,377 1,028,376 600,326

    .
    HONTIVEROS, Risa Akbayan 10,840,047 10,786,438 10,693,676 10,462,646 10,115,604 9,666,484 8,711,159 7,055,561 5,344,173 3,723,857 3,526,134 2,525,968 2,171,727 1,889,947 812,230 463,594

    .
    LEGARDA, Loren NPC 18,482,961 18,387,850 18,197,504 17,791,849 17,160,208 16,468,744 14,922,018 11,896,817 9,175,488 6,405,625 5,967,495 4,343,113 3,626,984 3,103,432 1,420,068 835,114

    .
    LLASOS, Marwil Kapatiran 695,260 692,371 687,252 667,132 629,789 601,039 548,277 458,725 349,850 236,675 223,233 160,766 145,303 130,177 51,043 30,541

    .
    MACEDA, Ernie UNA 3,388,936 3,376,159 3,353,442 3,286,111 3,170,748 3,052,521 2,770,465 2,269,605 1,776,549 1,295,902 1,216,797 931,610 767,289 686,409 311,907 167,272

    .
    MADRIGAL, Jamby LP 6,727,877 6,686,088 6,611,189 6,474,155 6,173,959 5,908,546 5,385,103 4,293,929 3,228,413 2,238,534 2,082,226 1,470,667 1,251,959 1,076,984 488,405 287,740

    .
    MAGSAYSAY, Mitos UNA 5,569,077 5,534,697 5,492,306 5,354,545 5,115,384 4,887,849 4,490,187 3,541,173 2,677,457 1,874,627 1,755,815 1,277,692 1,101,619 967,269 484,364 266,221

    .
    MAGSAYSAY, Ramon LP 11,252,335 11,184,979 11,079,149 10,835,974 10,377,948 9,929,494 9,012,758 7,207,461 5,492,410 3,913,064 3,682,585 2,657,890 2,302,425 2,015,378 927,154 528,165

    .
    MONTANO, Mon independent 1,029,439 1,022,853 1,012,475 985,743 902,787 867,213 792,362 608,672 466,688 333,514 309,177 210,762 177,611 154,701 68,548 44,650

    .
    PENSON, Dick independent 1,030,107 1,024,739 1,015,097 993,195 947,431 906,543 821,812 669,039 520,659 367,963 345,938 258,867 224,329 199,030 83,849 52,263

    .
    PIMENTEL, Koko PDP-Laban 14,584,612 14,492,401 14,365,080 14,000,348 13,466,306 12,860,609 11,700,820 9,530,039 7,336,084 5,186,529 4,828,881 3,510,976 3,011,023 2,626,465 1,193,232 658,102

    .
    POE, Grace independent 20,147,423 20,029,370 19,828,262 19,376,744 18,697,429 17,895,281 16,260,239 12,986,253 10,049,795 6,978,111 6,504,294 4,729,889 4,011,600 3,440,764 1,520,880 850,911

    .
    SENERES, Christian DPP 698,440 694,770 689,671 663,322 625,781 597,128 539,761 442,083 331,665 235,004 222,477 161,070 141,095 125,288 53,555 30,757

    .
    TRILLANES, Sonny NP 13,995,603 13,911,783 13,785,975 13,430,245 12,958,307 12,371,458 11,221,926 9,115,190 7,098,940 4,968,187 4,666,117 3,325,169 2,829,457 2,440,836 1,076,984 631,426

    .
    VILLANUEVA, Eddie Bangon Pilipinas 6,868,774 6,844,731 6,796,369 6,681,232 6,446,252 6,210,511 5,589,056 4,597,592 3,549,486 2,405,127 2,254,514 1,660,673 1,473,986 1,278,655 557,457 321,880

    .
    VILLAR, Cynthia NP 13,696,120 13,625,351 13,494,702 13,206,695 12,725,809 12,221,970 11,143,934 8,897,239 6,815,833 4,833,722 4,504,611 3,249,937 2,722,646 2,327,995 1,066,122 613,661

    .
    ZUBIRI, Migz UNA 11,707,146 11,617,336 11,544,658 11,191,359 10,506,446 10,046,457 9,184,995 7,526,167 5,697,367 4,164,541 3,838,705 2,697,780 2,314,780 2,023,140 998,939 512,574

    COMMENT LINES ARE OPEN and I shall reserve my own for that venue. I shall continue an examination of the other allegations quoted by Rene Azurin later tonight or tomorrow.  THANKS for slogging through this if you have gotten this far.
    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMay 20, 2013

    Comelec's 16-Stage Senate Canvas

    Comelec's 16-Stage Senate Canvas
    The May 2013 Philippine Midterm Elections are now a week-old. But the age-old questions about all Philippine elections remain as may be gleaned from this article by Raissa Robles, Did the Comelec Just Go Rogue?

    To help in answering these questions and promote continuous improvement for future elections, I am writing this series of blog posts in which  I am analyzing the Official tally of votes for the 2013 senatorial race as recorded by the superb new-media enterprise, Rapplerdotcom, led by veteran journalist Ms. Maria Ressa.

    As in the 2010 National Elections, the Smartmatic Precinct Count Optical Scanners, or PCOS machines were used to record the votes of 39,898,232 voters out of some 52 million registered, a 75% turnout.  A major source of discomfort and skepticism is the manner by which Comelec CANVASSED 304 Certificates of Canvas (COCs) from Municipal and Provincial Boards of Canvas.   It did so in 16 Canvassing Sessions of the National Board of Canvassers. Based on the published Rappler Tally, here is a snapshot of the Comelec Canvassing process:


    By my count, 294,683,224 votes were cast by 39 million voters for Senator.

    The x-axis represents the 16 Canvas Reports published by Comelec and used to proclaim 12 winning Senators.

    The y-axis represents the Incremental Number of Votes tallied or added to previous canvas sessions at each of the 16 stages of canvas, shown below in tabular form as I computed them:


    1: 13278521
    2: 10185590
    3: 28301098
    4: 8142941
    5: 10295316
    6: 26488085
    7: 6849981
    8: 43750447
    9: 43908974
    10: 46207109
    11: 24012234
    12: 11473986
    13: 10926269
    14: 6667463
    15: 2618914
    16: 1576296

    The National Canvassing process was marred by delays in transmission from the local boards of canvass as detailed by the article of Raissa Robles, resulting in the wide variance of votes tallied at each stage. Notice for example the large number of votes in Canvas stages 8 to 13.

    Many bloggers and other analytical types (including me!) have been poring over the Official Data since the 12 winning senators were proclaimed (in 3 batches of 6+3+3) by last Friday, May 18, 2013 just to see if there is anything in the data to verify or falsify accusations and suspicions that the elections may have been rigged or programmed to achieve the final result.

    I think it is important for these analyses to take into account the NON-UNIFORM vote increments at each stage of the canvas. 

    In the next blog post, I shall consider the time series data itself to shed further light on its provenance.




    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMay 19, 2013

    Self Determination and the Sabah Crisis

    Self Determination and the Sabah Crisis
    I must thank a friend of mine from Sagada, Mountain Province, Mr. Steve Rogers,  for calling attention to a 2001 Judgment rendered by the International Court of Justice in a Case Concerning Sovereignty over Pulau Ligitan and Pulau Sipadan (Indonesia v. Malaysia) Application by the Philippines for Permission to Intervene Judgment of 23 October 2001.

    In denying the Philippines' motion to intervene, the Court ruled that, 
    "... historic title, no matter how persuasively claimed on the basis of old legal instruments and exercises of authority, cannot - except in the most extraordinary circumstances - prevail in law over the rights of non-self-governing people to claim independence and establish their sovereignty through the exercise of bona fide self-determination. 
    That bona fide exercise of self-determination already occurred in 1963, the Court further ruled, noting that the certification of this was done by no less than the United Nations:
    14. In 1963, Britain filed its last report to the United Nations on North Borneo as an Article 73 (e) Non-Self-Governing Territory (Note by the Secretary-General, Political and Constitutional Information on Asian Territories under United Kingdom Administration, UN Doc. No. A/5402/Add.4 (4 April 1963)). Thereafter, the United Nations removed North Borneo from the list of colonial territories under its decolonization jurisdiction (see Yearbook of the United Nations, 1964, pp. 411-435, which omits North Borneo from the Committee’s list of territories), thereby accepting that the process of decolonization had been completed by a valid exercise of self-determination. 
     I think the salient point is simply this: Self-determination trumps any historical title, no matter how persuasive or even valid!

    15. Accordingly, in light of the clear exercise by the people of North Borneo of their right to self-determination, it cannot matter whether this Court, in any interpretation it might give to any historic instrument or efficacy, sustains or not the Philippines claim to historic title. Modern international law does not recognize the survival of a right of sovereignty based solely on historic title; not, in any event, after an exercise of self-determination conducted in accordance with the requisites of international law, the bona fides of which has received international recognition by the political organs of the United Nations. Against this, historic claims and feudal pre-colonial titles are mere relics of another international legal era, one that ended with the setting of the sun on the age of colonial imperium.
    16. The lands and people claimed by the Philippines formerly constituted most of an integral British dependency. In accordance with the law pertaining to decolonization, its population exercised their right of self-determination. What remains is no mere boundary dispute. It is an attempt to keep alive a right to reverse the free and fair decision taken almost 40 years ago by the people of North Borneo in the exercise of their legal right to self-determination. The Court cannot be a witting party to that.

    Philippine Commentary
    en-usMarch 06, 2013